The Quinnipiac polls released today contradicts the voting that has already occurred.

[still_one]

For one thing, overall popular vote has Hillary up + 2.2 Million over Trump, and up 3.1 Million over Sanders

What really makes one question the Quinnipiac sampling is that Hillary won Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania by large margins over Sanders. Those are NOT question based polls, but represent how people ACTUALLY VOTED.

Not only do I question the samplings, but I would like to see the breakdown of how the people polled identify themselves. As Democratic, republican, or independent.

[IamMab]

1. Q-polls oversample the prime Bernie/Trump demographic of white people.

And minorities are historically undersampled, so you're right to say this poll contradicts the voting that has occurred.

[charlyvi]

2. Polls will be up and down all the way to November.

It's hard, but I try not to take them to heart this far out.

[still_one]

6. I agree with that statement, but I also question the accuracy of this poll, based on the voting

results that occurred in the Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania primaries. Those primaries act as a control, and runs counter to those results.

[rock]

12. +1

It's very difficult to get accurate polls even close in. It takes a lot of effort.

[yallerdawg]

3. Real voting or imaginary voting?

[Gomez163]

4. I think we need to remember that there are sexists in both parties.

[still_one]

9. Correct, but what also makes me wonder about these polls, is that the majority in each one of those

states was for voter ID requirements, which is usually not a Democratic issue, so I wonder how honest people were when they identified themselves as independents, when perhaps they were actually republicans

[Laurian]

5. My understanding is that their polling sample was

skewed toward white voters. I think that probably accounts for the results that are inconsistent with other data.

[Iliyah]

7. If thats the case, HRC is way up

[TwilightZone]

8. WaPo is questioning their demographics data

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/a-new-poll-shows-trump-beating-clinton-in-ohio-but-it-assumes-a-pretty-white-electorate/

[NastyRiffraff]

10. Good analysis by WaPo

largely supporting the "whiteness" of the Q-poll.

[Surya Gayatri]

11. K & R for visibility. Thanks for posting.

[Fla Dem]

13. Besides the demographic they used in the polling, we still have 2 candidates in the race.

As long as BS continues to campaign that will skew the results. The die hard BS fans, as well as agent provocateurs will select anti-Hillary just to stay relevant or cause disruption.

I would look at GE State polls until after the conventions.

I'm a little surprised at Quinnipiac doing a sloppy job in their selection, they have a pretty good reputation.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. A poll is merely a data point. Best to look at aggregate polling.

[TwilightZone]

16. But, I can't cherry-pick if I look at the big picture!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I am not going to freak out over one poll...

Last edited Tue May 10, 2016, 03:32 PM - Edit history (2)

Here is a real smart guy discussing it:

https://twitter.com/AlanIAbramowitz

[Walk away]

15. Hillary's numbers will be depressed as long as Bernie is in the race.

Sanders is a drag on the entire party. Every Democrat running for office is wishing Bernie would get hit by a bus!

[fleabiscuit]

18. Need to crunch these two...

Henhouse :Then and now....Q polls

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1107129442

[WI_DEM]

19. the reason they are close is that right now many Sanders voters are saying

they won't vote for HRC.