Poll: Despite Bernie Sanders' Crowds, Hillary Clinton Ahead In Oregon-HRC Room

[hrmjustin]

Anna Griffin


A new poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump headed toward primary victories next week in Oregon — and suggests Clinton holds a strong lead over Trump as both pivot toward the November general election.

DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Oregon voters between May 6 and May 9 for OPB and Fox 12. Among Democrats, Clinton led U.S. Sen. Sanders 48 percent to 33 percent. Sanders has attracted adoring crowds at campaign appearances in Portland and Eugene — he’ll speak again Tuesday night in Salem — but the Democratic primary is a closed election. That means only registered Democrats can vote, and may help explain why Clinton leads in the poll.

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/

[Historic NY]

1. Crowds don't translate into votes...

like rubber necking at a car accident doesn't cause safe driving.

[bluestateguy]

36. Indeed

Try getting a 20 year old to show up and vote:

It's like trying to get frogs into a wheelbarrow.

[livetohike]

2. "Adoring crowds" "Ohhhh Bernie, you make me swoon, LOL

Cue the fainting couch and fan.

[IamMab]

3. Bernie supporters love to rally. Clinton supporters love to vote.

This is the way I'll always think about it.

[workinclasszero]

8. That's the way it is

[NYC Liberal]

19. They're not very good at voting

Don't know the deadlines.
Don't know the registration rules.
Don't know how the delegate system works.

And they have no desire to figure it out, only whine and moan the day before the election and scream FRAUD.

[SaschaHM]

4. I don't want to get my hopes up, but if Clinton wins Oregon...

Well, even Jane might want to pull the plug then.

[misterhighwasted]

5. Oregon? ? How Disabling & humiliating that would be for bernie.

Wasn't Oregon supposed to be bernie's base?
Oye! This is too sweet

[Treant]

6. Well, that's very intere...OREGON?!?

I'd actually had that mentally tagged as a strong Sanders state.

To have Clinton win it would bode very poorly for California, as well as making me Very Happy Indeed.

[Cha]

7. I didn't know Oregon was Closed! Wow.. thank you, Justin!

Steady as she goes, Hillary!

[ronnykmarshall]

11. and I think 100% mail in, right?

[riversedge]

21. I believe so.

[mcar]

9. Fingers crossed

Doesn't Oregon have vote by mail? I wonder how that affects polling.

[Native]

10. Hill always does so well with that!

[Native]

12. Oregon has the most convenient voting system in the country!!!!

According to the SOS' website.

[mcar]

20. I wish we all had that

I do absentee voting in FL because it is so convenient.

[SunSeeker]

13. Good. A closed primary means no ratfucking. nt

[Kingofalldems]

14. Is this an open primary?

[hrmjustin]

15. No it is closed.

[Kingofalldems]

16. We win.

[hrmjustin]

17. 84,000 changed from independent to Dem. so I don't know if they accounted for that in this poll.

[Jitter65]

22. I think that means that Sanders wins. nt

[Jitter65]

23. Where did this info come from? Is it a source for other cross over voters in other states?

[hrmjustin]

25. Here you go.

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2016/05/record_110000_change_voter_reg.html

[SaschaHM]

18. I hope there are some more polls beforehand to reinforce this...

I think Sanders will win, but I'm sure Andrea Mitchell and MSNBC will latch on to this to make this out to be some type of epic upset for Clinton.

[Jitter65]

24. You notices that too? nt

[Iliyah]

26. K & R

[Walk away]

27. I doubt that Bernie will lose Oregon. But sanders is just nibbling at Hillary's lead and...

there just aren't that many states left. This has been over since March!

[LiberalFighter]

28. No disrespect to seniors or others with false teeth.

But Sanders will need to get his dentures readjusted. Nibbling is not going to get the job done.

[Walk away]

31. I was informed over at GDP that he would "gobble up" her lead!

So nibbling is my little joke for my own amusement. If he wins 5 or ten delegates every primary between now and the convention, he should win a one way ticket back to the Senate with plenty of free time to avail himself of that free dentistry that comes with the job!

[pandr32]

34. It has been over since March!

It takes a while for denial to wear off.

[BlueMTexpat]

29. That's very encouraging.

But many Oregonians have switched from Indy to Dem to vote in the primary, so I think that OR will in the end go to Bernie.

This poll may mean that Hillary can exceed her 538 target goals there, which means that "win" or not, Bernie will still be essentially treading water. That means that he will fall even further behind in pledged delegates.

But I can still hope for a win. And will.

[SharonClark]

32. Agree 100%

[eastwestdem]

30. I'd be surprised if Hillary could win Oregon, but if she can keep it somewhat close, that will

be a victory, since Bernard is counting on a landslide to keep that tiny little thread of hope from breaking.

[Her Sister]

33. Wondering if BS can afford a loss or tie here!? Hmmm!

[Treant]

35. As I think about this,

I think this poll is an outlier. No state has gone against its demographics in this cycle, although there's a modifier by the type of contest they have.

Oregon is, quite simply, pretty white. Very white, actually. That's a Sanders advantage.

It's a closed primary, so there's no extra advantage for him. And it has really good voting percentages due to ease of voting.

That last one is the only thing I can see that would shift the results in Clinton's direction. And I'm not sure by how much.

Right now, I'm still calling Oregon about +15 Sanders. And Kentucky is a tossup due to the results in the counties bordering it in other states.