Could Hillary Clinton win Oregon on Tuesday? Here's a closer look at the numbers.

[Fla Dem]

Sunday 5/15/2016
9:44 A.M.
REPORTING FROM PORTLAND
CHRIS MEGERIAN
LA TIMES

Like everyone else in Oregon, pollster John Horvick has watched as Bernie Sanders draws massive crowds by capitalizing on liberal dissatisfaction in this left-leaning state.

“It felt like this is Bernie Sanders country,” he said.

That’s why the latest poll results from his firm, DHM Research, were something of a surprise. Hillary Clinton led 48% to 33% , a gap much larger than the margin of error of 5.6 percentage points.

Oregon's primary is on Tuesday. In an interview in his light-filled loft office in Portland's trendy Pearl District, Horvick offered some potential caveats, but also reasons to think the poll is correct.

First, the reasons for skepticism. Young voters heavily favor Sanders, and they could sway the results if they turn out in droves.

“It’s like a seesaw,” said Horvick. “If we get those proportions wrong, it has a big effect.”

In addition, roughly 65,000 voters have switched their registration from unaffiliated to Democrat since the beginning of the year, according to the Oregon secretary of state's office. They are more likely to lean liberal, and they’re more likely to be Sanders supporters.

Because there can be a lag in data transfer, Horvick is unsure if the poll adequately sampled these voters.

Now, some reasons to believe Clinton could pull off a victory here.

Oregon has a closed primary, meaning only registered Democrats can vote, and Sanders hasn't won a closed primary yet in this campaign. Older voters are much more likely than their younger counterparts to be registered with a party, and they’re more likely to favor Clinton, giving her an edge.

In addition, Horvick’s team calculated a second set of numbers based on a potential turnout where young voters and new voters cast ballots in higher numbers than normal .

Even then, Clinton had a lead that exceeded the margin of error, 45% to 38%.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-trailguide-05122016-could-hillary-clinton-win-oregon-on-tuesday-1463068933-htmlstory.html

Unfortunately, not a lot of poll data for Oregon so not going to get all excited about this. The large number of independents changing their party affiliation bothers me. It's not just the ones that truly support BS, but also the RWers who have nothing to lose because Trump has already clinched their nomination. Now they want to f*#k with our primaries.

But HRC may pull it off.

I think this is the last state the BS crowd really thought he had a chance to win. Anything could happen, but if this pans out, .......well you know; his campaign is finished, fini, finito, fertig, terminado, kaput.

[BootinUp]

1. Gonna be a late night, specially for us Eastcoasters. nt

[metroins]

2. I'm hoping...but not getting overly confident

Sanders campaign was finished in March; but we're unfortunately, still....fighting two battles....I haven't been watching the news recently, I am hoping Bernie's campaign toned down the rhetoric towards Hillary. From the looks of DU, the very vocal minority of his supporters have gotten worse.

Oregon, is a closed primary, not a caucus -- I think --, and she does much better when there's more Democratic voters.

I don't know Oregon very well at all, I think it's pretty rural (excluding portland). I am cautious.

[wildeyed]

3. I dunno.

The poll itself looked reasonably well constructed, but the changing party affiliation is concerning.

[Jitter65]

4. As long as Hillary doesn't lose by more than 10 point, I don't care. It doesn't help Bernie to win

in a state he is supposed to win.

For folks screaming for open primaries you see what can happen when the other party candidate has been selected and their supporters want to act as spoilers. It may not matter to you now because you feel it will help Bernie. But come the day that it hurts your candidate you will feel differently.

[Princess Turandot]

5. The cut-off date for changing party membership in Oregon was April 26th...

the NE corridor primary day. Trump had not yet become the defacto Rep candidate at that point, because Cruz and Kasich were still running. That may reduce the number of his supporters who changed to Dems in time to vote for Sanders.

I don't know what will happen. But some of the reasons they say Sanders is winning seem to be nothing but 'feelings'. How do they know that those switchers from 'no party' to Dems mostly intend to vote for him? A academic in Oregon announced that a few days ago, citing 'bernie mania' aka rallies as his argument.

Also, there hasn't been a Dem presidential primary in 8 years. That's a long period during which new voters might have registered as 'no party' because they saw no reason to join one at the time. (In 2008, 58%+ of registered voters voted in that year's primaries in Oregon. In 2014, only 36% of them voted, despite their super easy vote by mail system.)