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Once McCain was GOP nominee in 2008 & Clinton was still in, polls found McCain slightly up on Obama. (Original Post) sarae May 2016 OP
Frankly, I'd be worried if Hill had a huge lead in the polls stopbush May 2016 #1
excellent point sarae May 2016 #2
Typically, a candidate will get a bit of a bump when they win their primary. The Squinch May 2016 #3
Absolutely peggysue2 May 2016 #5
As Howard Dean so accurately said just now on MSNBC: Surya Gayatri May 2016 #4
K&R! DemonGoddess May 2016 #6
Of course. And Sanders has been using these national polls to bellow that despite losing decisively, Princess Turandot May 2016 #7

stopbush

(24,376 posts)
1. Frankly, I'd be worried if Hill had a huge lead in the polls
Sun May 22, 2016, 12:49 PM
May 2016

at this point on the calendar.

Momentum becomes more important as the election nears, especially in the media's narrative. Any candidate is in better shape if they're trailing or at 50% around the time of the conventions as they have nowhere to go but up. The candidate that is perceived as rising in the polls as the election nears will own the positive media spin, while the media will obsess on the reasons that the fading candidate is fading.

sarae

(3,284 posts)
2. excellent point
Sun May 22, 2016, 12:52 PM
May 2016

The "nowhere to go but up" idea does have a lot of merit. And I know Donald Trump has nowhere to go but down.

Squinch

(50,773 posts)
3. Typically, a candidate will get a bit of a bump when they win their primary. The
Sun May 22, 2016, 01:08 PM
May 2016

party falls in behind them.

Trump is in the midst of that now. Hillary won't get it until BS admits he has lost and frees up his supporters to openly support her. And despite that, she leads Trump in most polls.

peggysue2

(10,811 posts)
5. Absolutely
Sun May 22, 2016, 01:42 PM
May 2016

Trump is getting the predictive bump for being the presumptive nominee. Hillary will get the same bump once St Bernard admits that he's lost this thing, that's there no way in hell he catches up or even comes close and finally endorses HRC's race against The Donald.

The press is more than willing to whip the nonsense of a horserace in the Democratic primary. Yet mathematically, it's been over since March.

That being said, no one should take a Hillary win in November for granted. This is going to be a long and ugly slog to the finish. But HRC has the advantage in credentials, ground game and the electoral map. Hillary's national organization is already on the ground, dwarfing Trump's efforts in funding and state-by-state representation.

She will get it done and we will have the honor of saying: Thank you, Madame President.

 

Surya Gayatri

(15,445 posts)
4. As Howard Dean so accurately said just now on MSNBC:
Sun May 22, 2016, 01:28 PM
May 2016
NO surprise that Hillary's numbers against Trump have declined. She's fighting on two fronts, with Sanders still stealing some of her thunder. OTOH, Trump is benefiting from his position as presumtive nominee.
(paraphrased)

Princess Turandot

(4,784 posts)
7. Of course. And Sanders has been using these national polls to bellow that despite losing decisively,
Sun May 22, 2016, 01:58 PM
May 2016

he should be the candidate.

I'm certain that if polled, many of his supporters are trying to prop up that argument while he remains in the race.

And polling isn't voting. By selecting Trump over Clinton, some may also be engaging in some last potshots at HRC.

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