Hillary Clinton will win in November, says the economy
Now we’re all atwitter about a poll or two showing Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House this fall.
But let’s twist slightly what Warren Buffett says about stock markets: In the short run, they’re voting mechanisms (like polls) that get things wrong all the time. In the long run, they’re weighing mechanisms that are just about always right.
In politics, “weighing” means looking at the economic fundamentals. And at least at Moody’s Analytics, the nation’s biggest economic-consulting firm, the economic fundamentals still point solidly to a Democratic win.
The silent majority will be people who are broadly satisfied. Or so the model says. A 10% after-inflation pay raise will do that.
Moody’s economy-based election model predicted every state outcome correctly in both 2008 and 2012. It shows Clinton winning 332 electoral votes, well north of the 270 needed to claim victory. In fact, every state should go the same way it did last time, because home prices are appreciating, gasoline is cheap, incomes are rising and voters already approve of the job President Obama’s doing, even before he and Clinton get down to re-selling it in earnest this summer.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/hillary-clinton-will-win-in-november-says-the-economy/ar-BBtspL4?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=edgsp
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