538: The System Isn’t ‘Rigged’ Against Sanders

[fleabiscuit]

“The System Isn’t ‘Rigged’ Against Sanders

Clinton’s winning because more Democrats want her to be the nominee.”

I’m going to give you the last two paragraphs. Lots of number and math and stuff so we know who won’t read it for sure. If your eyes tend to glaze over, like mine we can just jump to the good stuff…

“…What would happen if the primary system conformed to each candidate’s best-case scenario? (All closed primaries for Clinton and all caucuses open to independent voters for Sanders.) If every state held a closed primary, Clinton would beat Sanders by 19 percentage points and have a 654 elected delegate advantage, we estimate. If, however, each state held an open caucus, Sanders would beat Clinton by 22 percentage points nationwide and have a 496 elected delegate lead. Of course, neither of those scenarios would happen.

Realistically, if you throw everything together, the math suggests that Sanders doesn’t have much to complain about. If the Democratic nomination were open to as many Democrats as possible — through closed primaries — Clinton would be dominating Sanders. And if the nomination were open to as many voters as possible — through open primaries — she’d still be winning.”

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-system-isnt-rigged-against-sanders/

[Koinos]

1. K & R

[Iliyah]

2. K & R

[fleabiscuit]

4. Hi ya Iliyah!

[TwilightZone]

3. It's roughly 57/43 at present. In any other context, that's a blowout.

The only people who don't seem to get that are most of the media, Sanders, his campaign, and his supporters.

It's not close. It hasn't been close in months. It probably never was close.

[fleabiscuit]

5. I think "more Democrats want her to be the nominee" is the linchpin.

[TwilightZone]

11. Agreed.

Throw out the Rs and Is who thought they had some right to decide the D nominee, and this was over months ago.

[Tal Vez]

6. The system isn't "rigged" against anyone.

However, the system has a flaw. The system seems to encourage the losing side to attempt to render the winner's nomination worthless. Three months ago, I did not care who won the nomination. Even today, I could support Sanders if he wins the nomination. But, that does not appear to be possible and I'm sure that Sanders knows that. However, the system might be encouraging someone like Sanders to believe that he can somehow get the nomination if he makes it worthless to leading candidate.

The party should take steps to prevent that kind of conduct on the part of a losing candidate. What can a party do to encourage a losing party to accept his/her fate? Well, if in this case, Sanders manages to make the nomination of Clinton worthless and if Clinton, maybe it would be sensible for Clinton to instruct her delegates (which will be a majority) to vote to nominate someone like Joe Biden. Giving the nomination to Biden would serve to discourage future losing candidates from trying to destroy the winning candidate's chances.

And, that way, everyone could be happy.

[Thinkingabout]

7. Are you advocating against Hillary? please do not do this in Hillary's group.

[Tal Vez]

9. I certainly am not advocating against Clinton.

I have already voted for Clinton. I think that Sanders should understand that there could be a price for trying to sink Clinton's candidacy.

[Thinkingabout]

14. Just as he is pushing for DWS to be defeated, hopefully he will stick to his word

On supporting the DNC candidate. Who knows with him.

[fleabiscuit]

8. That would be the end of the Democratic party IMHO. n/t

[Tal Vez]

10. I am confident that Clinton will be nominated and will win in November.

But, there is no excuse for what a losing candidate (Sanders) is actively trying to do right now. He is trying to render the nomination worthless. He should understand that there could be a huge price for that.

[TwilightZone]

13. None of that's happening.

The only people who aren't accepting that Hillary is the presumptive nominee after June 7th are a few of Sanders' more fervent fans. Everyone else, including most Sanders fans in the real world, understand that this is over. Most of them will rally behind Hillary in the coming weeks.

Even Sanders knows it. That's why he made the deal with the DNC for the platform committee nominations while he still could.

[Tal Vez]

15. I hope you're right.

I'm concerned about what Sanders himself is doing. Trump is now quoting him and using his criticisms as support for Trump's candidacy. Sanders should not be permitted to destroy the party.

[TwilightZone]

16. I don't think it matters.

It's not as though Clinton hasn't been criticized before. Sanders isn't doing anything particularly novel. It's just the same ball of crap with a new coat of polish.

If he concedes and supports Hillary, as he has claimed he would, little of this will matter by November.

[Tal Vez]

17. You're probably right.

And, I may be going over the deep end here, but I am just completely losing patience with Sanders. I am eager to begin the general election. I find it more and more difficult to even look at my television when Trump's orange face is in the middle of it.

Maybe it's time for the Golf Channel.

[George II]

12. I've basically been saying this since shortly after the New Hampshire primary:

“The System Isn’t ‘Rigged’ Against Sanders, Clinton’s winning because more Democrats want her to be the nominee.”

[jimw81]

18. Funny part about this story

Is tweets by sanders supporters, especially King, Cenk and his lacky Kyle. They had a meltdown on Twitter about this story. When the writer approach Shaun King about the story, he blocked the author.

[wildeyed]

19. Wait, Shaun King blocked Harry Enten?

That is so weak! Pundits do NOT like getting called out on their errors, I guess. #BernieMath