New CA Poll Shows Hillary Clinton Leading Sanders by 2 Points, Um, Right

[Iamaartist]

http://hinterlandgazette.com/2016/05/new-ca-poll-shows-hillary-clinton-leading-sanders-2-points-cross-tabs-questionable.html

A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders in the California Democratic primary by two points, 46% to 44%. Right

I guess 16 points just disappeared in the space of a few days. A Survey USA poll showed Clinton with an 18-point lead over Sanders on Monday. A Real Clear Politics poll average shows Clinton with an 8-point advantage. In other words, she’s heading for a win.

Further, I dug into the cross-tabs of the PPIC poll and found some interesting tidbits — not much gender gap for starters. Clinton leads by 6 points among white voters and 9 points among Hispanic voters. Then, unless Bernie Sanders is leading her with black, Asian and other minority voters, this poll cannot be this close.

One more point — 23% of the sample was neither white nor Hispanic. Sanders had to be leading in those groups by at least 15% to bring the spread down to a 2% lead by Clinton. Sanders would need to win really, really big in California. There hasn’t been a single poll that shows him with the capability of winning by any margin. In fact, he would need to carry California by 70 percent to get most of the delegates. Hillary’s margin is much lower. I wish reporters would drill down and look closely at the polling fundamentals before saying the race is a dead heat.

I would also revisit Ohio and New York. The polls had both races close and then look what happened — landslide. Bernie Sanders has never won a large diverse state and I don’t expect him to do that at the end of the primary season. Either way, Hillary Clinton is within 78 -now 74 delegates of clinching the nomination.

Um, Bernie, good luck with that “charity” debate with Donald Trump. I hope you know he’ll set the terms and that won’t be to your advantage. That’s assuming it really happens. Trump has said a lot of things…..




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reporters not telling the truth...

[jimw81]

1. Benchmarkpol

Still has it +12 Hillary. They are usually on the mark and better than 538

[link:https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/735979580754919424|

[Iamaartist]

2. The main media most of time doesn't tell the truth......

Last edited Fri May 27, 2016, 07:28 AM - Edit history (1)

I got a lot of cousins in California ...so I know little whats going on....

[still_one]

19. I live in California, and have been doing canvassing and phone banking for

Hillary. From what I have seen is those who have been registered Democrats since the last Presidential election are overwhelmingly for Hillary.

The folks I talked with who had Latino names were overwhelmingly for Hillary, as were those demographics that have been supporting Hillary in other primaries.

A lot of first time voters have registered to vote in California. Interestingly, a lot of these votes registered as NPP, (no party preference), which means they will need to request a Democratic ballot to vote for the Democratic presidential primary candidates

In my view the results of the Democratic primary for president in California, will be within a 10 point spread. Sanders needs to win by over a 30% plus spread in California, plus all the remaining primaries. That is NOT going to happen

[still_one]

28. I am in the bay area, Northern California, and am glad to hear that Southern Californians are on

their toes. Thank-you, and yes are going to stay strong and work together for our Madam President

[sarae]

6. 538 does have Clinton up over Sanders by 18 points

in their latest poll...with her chance of winning CA at 97%!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/california-democratic/

[Iamaartist]

7. Thats good.....

[still_one]

20. Yes, Silver is predicting a 97% chance of Hillary winning the California primary

That figure does not tell you by how much. However, it does indicate that he does not believe Sanders will get enough votes in California to significantly help him in delegate counts

[DemonGoddess]

24. Something I've noticed with Benchmark

is that when he projects over 10, she gets MORE than the projection. When he projects UNDER 10, he's almost always right on it.

So, Benchmark having her still at +12 is AWESOME!

[Princess Turandot]

3. This is *not* a new poll. It's the PPI one from 5/22...

I mention this so people don't think it's yet another poll with that 2% margin.

There's a long discussion of it here, in another thread started by you:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1107145482

I assume that you're posting the article to share its particular discussion, but the title makes it sound as if this is a brand new poll.

[Iamaartist]

4. Well the media still doesnt tell the truth.....and dont think she losing as they say

We will find out soon...I keep in touch with my cousins there.....in that state....and she is retire
from ABC .so I can get lot of infor...soon we will know

A different article,.....

[still_one]

21. Thanks, and no it isn't a different poll. What is interesting is that the Survey USA polls

a couple of days prior was hardly mentioned, and Survey USA is rated quite high by Nate Silver. We have two polls, one poll gives Hillary an 18 point lead, and another poll gives Hillary a 2 point lead.

While more polls may provide better insight, what these two polls do agree on is that contrary to what the Sanders camp has been saying, the upcoming California primary will not be the blow-out that Sanders is predicting in California.

I predict the final results will be within a 10 point spread

[BainsBane]

5. 538 calculated it into their predictions

and they still have her at 97% to win.

[Iamaartist]

8. Thank-you so who is right or wrong we will know soon

I don't trust the big media......

[BainsBane]

10. Polls vary because their models for voter turn out vary

I doubt most of them mean to slant one way or another, but models differ. And even the best poll isn't predictive. It's merely a snapshot of opinion at a moment in time. We never know until the votes are counted.

[Thinkingabout]

9. By the time it gets to California Sanders will need over 100%, i did not see his poll

Numbers at 100%, it is a loss for Sanders

[BainsBane]

11. Yep, 538 predict she will reach 2382 in NJ.

[Koinos]

12. The popularity of Sanders is ebbing.

It was foolhardy for him to alienate Democrats even more. As Barney Frank said of him, he alienates his own allies. He doesn't know how to make and maintain friendships with Democrats. Democratic voters will not reward childish behavior on the part of a presidential candidate. The latest ploy to debate Trump in order to have another chance to attack Hillary, is transparently self-serving. It is the Sanders campaign that is uninformed, not the voters.

[Thinkingabout]

13. Like everyone going under the bus.

[Iamaartist]

15. lol under the bus.........

[Treant]

16. The Wheels On The Bus

Go Round And....er, they're actually fairly dirty, too.

Hey, while we're down here, somebody hand me a rag and the cleaner. I'll take care of these.

[Koinos]

22. And the bus isn't even going in the right direction.

It must be the fault of that "third party" GPS.

[Iamaartist]

14. You so right...thank you well said.....

[TwilightZone]

17. Yeah, it's that same PPI one with the math problems. My thoughts were similar.

My post on it from yesterday:

290 White, 134 Latino, 125 Other, 549 Total

Whites: 47/41 Hillary +6
Latinos: 52/43 Hillary +9

"Other" would have to be heavily Sanders to get to 46/44 overall, at least 60/40 or higher. The poll doesn't provide a breakdown, but there's no way Sanders is beating Clinton 60/40 with African Americans and Asians, who make up most of California's non-white/non-Latino 20%.

The crosstabs also don't match up. Household income, for example, matches, but the totals for college/noncollege show Hillary +5. Errors like this exist in many of the totals. They vary from the +2 indicated in the total to +7 or higher.

538 is basically treating it as an outlier, giving it less than 20% the weighting of the SurveyUSA poll from the same timeframe, which shows Hillary up 57/39.

Link to poll data: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0516.pdf

[George II]

18. The SurveyUSA poll was released the same day as this questionable "2%" poll, with her ahead...

...by 18%.

Someone posted the PPIC methodology earlier - they over polled white males and under polled Hispanics. That would explain the dramatic (and inaccurate) difference.

[anotherproletariat]

23. I kind of like it when polls show it's close. If we went into the primary with a big polling lead,

then that becomes the expected outcome. This way we can lower expectations. Even though the email thing is being covered wall to wall over on GDP, most people are busy with their Memorial Day weekends, and are not paying any attention, so I doubt it will have much of an effect (though not ruling out a small dip).

The good thing is to get this out there now, so it will be old news by the time she is the official nominee. Whenever Trump brings it up, she just needs to quote from the conclusion of the IG report that says the issues are resolved.

[Walk away]

25. Me too! If Bernie wants a horse race to the end then let's give him one....

It's less than two weeks away!

[liberal N proud]

26. Public Policy Institute of California is a Think Tank

I don't take much from what a Think Tank thinks.

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank. We are dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research.

Nonpartisan, no one is nonpartisan.

[NYC Liberal]

29. Anything less than 75% means Sanders loses.

In fact, I believe that's the number just to tie...and it's not even including the other remaining states he needs to win with the same margins.