Respected Moody's model, right on every election since 1980, predicts Clinton win in November

[realmirage]

Donald Trump is in trouble, according to a model that has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential race since Ronald Reagan in 1980.

This time around the model -- run by Moody's Analytics -- says a Democrat will win the White House. Hillary Clinton is widely expected to be the Democratic nominee.

It's a bad sign for Trump. Moody's has been predicting a Democratic triumph since last August, but the margin of victory is getting bigger for the left as the economy has stayed relatively strong and President Obama's approval rating has risen.

The reason a Democrat will win isn't about polling or personalities, it's about economics, says Moody's. The economy is the top issue in just about every election. When the economy is doing well, the party currently in office usually wins again. When the economy is tanking, Americans vote for change.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/26/news/economy/hillary-clinton-beat-donald-trump-moodys/

[bluestateguy]

1. If the election was held today, yes

But just remember with that Moody model, that they update it and change it several times a year. So that has to hold through November.

They have been accurate each time since 1980, but they're only counting their final model right before each election.

[realmirage]

2. Confidence, man.

Have confidence! The article reminds the reader that the only thing that would change the prediction would be if the economy started to fail or if gas prices went above $3. You really see that happening by November? Also, the demographics are too strong for Hillary. Rust belt voters are also pro-Hillary at the moment. It won't be a cake walk, but I'm not worried.

Don't fret

[SunSeeker]

3. K & R

[Cha]

4. I have no problem with that.