Latest CALIFORNIA poll out. Hillary +13%. Hillary Clinton 51% Bernie Sanders 38%

[Iamaartist]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/05/31/1532780/-Latest-CALIFORNIA-poll-out-Hillary-13-Hillary-Clinton-51-Bernie-Sanders-38


New CA poll out this morning showing Hillary with a 13% lead.

Hoover Institution Golden State Poll: Clinton +13 Over Sanders; Harris, Sanchez Lead Senate Field
goldenstatepoll_banner_5-16.jpg

STANFORD, CA: With California’s June 7 primary only a week away, a new Hoover Institution Golden State Poll finds Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump with large leads in their respective primaries but cautionary signs lay ahead and good news for Democratic U.S. Senate hopefuls Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez.

Hoover’s Golden State Poll, administered by the survey research firm YouGov and designed in conjunction with Stanford University’s Bill Lane Center for the American West, finds Clinton holding a 13-point lead over U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (51 percent to 38 percent).

Clinton, meanwhile, continues to struggle with younger primary voters – Sanders leads 61 percent to 30 percent among Californians under-30 and shows weakness among “no party preference” voters, trailing Sanders by 40 points.

Bruce Cain, the Spence and Cleone Eccles Family Director of Stanford University’s Bill Lane Center for the American West, said, "The huge age divide in the Democratic contest poses a serious strategic question for the Clinton campaign: spend a lot of money now to try to offset or reduce this gap to avoid an embarrassing primary outcome that will not affect the delegate count much, or be patient, save her money and address the problem in the fall."

The survey, which interviewed 1,700 adult (18 and up) Californians, was conducted from May 4 to May 16. The full poll results for the survey, which has a margin of error of +/- 3.47 percent for the full weighted sample, can be found here.

Note: The poll was conducted from May 4 through May 16, but was just released today. It is a Stanford U poll, but was conducted by Yougov. That 2% poll seems to have been an outlier, but we’ll see soon enough.

Meanwhile, 538 has the CA race as Hillary’s to win, with a 96% chance of winning.



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I just hope it holds out until June 7th....

[Gomez163]

1. BUT BUTT BERNIES CROWDS ARE SO YOOOOOUUUUGEEEE!!!!!!!

[stopbush]

2. So, basically no movement towards Sanders over the past two weeks.

I'd say that poll that had the gap closing was an outlier.

[SaschaHM]

14. That was such a weird poll to begin with...

The cross tabs at times worked, at other times they didn't. Clinton won Whites by +6 and Latinos by 9, but still only won by 2.

[Walk away]

3. The Hoover Poll is the big one. The Media must be so sad they can't "Poll Trash" Hillary anymore.

Next Tuesday should be interesting.

[Iamaartist]

5. It all ends Tue......June 7th....really cant wait....

[LannyDeVaney]

4. But he went to a Warriors game! Obviously poll was skewed towards the Lakers and Clipper fans.

[Iamaartist]

6. lol......

[Kingofalldems]

7. And the news from Gov. Brown is awesome.

[Iamaartist]

9. wow so cool......

[Surya Gayatri]

8. Massive K & R. Thanks for posting. Good for Team Hillary.

[Iamaartist]

10. Your Welcome.......

[peggysue2]

11. Better shape

Hillary's campaign is in far better shape than most media outlets are willing to admit. She'll do well in California. Jerry Brown's endorsement is big. However Andrea Mitchell characterized it today as a 'begrudging endorsement.' Good but not good enough, even though most people were surprised that Brown came out before the primary.

Meanwhile the polling statisticians have been collecting state-to-state polls for a General Election summary. Despite St Bernard's proclamations that only he is the candidate to beat The Donald, the numbers fail him again. Sam Wang is someone I've followed through the last few elections. You can see his current predictions here:

http://election.princeton.edu

Benchmark Politics is also very good. They have Hillary winning California comfortably and NJ in a landslide (similar to her win in MD). She'll also do well in PR, VI and DC.

Hillary has the nomination nailed. Though I think that Trump is unpredictable and cannot be underestimated, HRC has the ability to crush The Donald and his fat mouth in November. We need to make that happen. Because anything else is unthinkable.

Btw, this is OT but did anyone else catch The Donald's comments that he expected his rally in DC to match MLK's crowd size? The man is a destructive fool.

[workinclasszero]

12. But...but...the YUUUUGE rallies....

GO HILLARY!!!!!!

[SharonClark]

13. The poll is over two weeks old and just now being released?

My guess is that it is closer now.

[SaschaHM]

15. If anything, it makes that PPIC polls look like even more of an outlier which is good...

since the only other poll in that time period had her up by +18. My guess is that she's hovering around +8-10 now. Maybe a bit more after the Jerry Brown endorsement.