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Wed Jun 1, 2016, 04:38 PM

It's Close in California: Clinton 49%, Sanders 47% NBC/WSJ/Marist

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/it-s-close-california-clinton-49-sanders-47-n584141

Hillary Clinton is clinging to a narrow two-point lead over Bernie Sanders in California ahead of the state's June 7 primary, according to results from a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll.

Clinton gets support from 49 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the state, while Sanders gets 47 percent, which is within the survey's margin of error.




The poll have Bernie winning Latinos so I'm a bit skeptical. Whatever the outcome though, there is no Bernie landslide in the cards (there never was). Hillary also leads in early voting.

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Response to SaschaHM (Original post)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 04:44 PM

1. The poll doesn't reflect the impact of all the dissing of gov brown by bernie

 

Jane and his supporters....as well as many sanders voters screwing ballots with early voting....I don't expect this to close ...and a week ago I thought a 5 or 6% loss for Hillary was going to be ok. Consider the money and time Bernie has spent...not I think a clear victory as sander supporters attacking gov brown is pissing many California voters off

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Response to beachbumbob (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 04:47 PM

3. It doesn't.

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Response to SaschaHM (Original post)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 04:46 PM

2. California? Who cares?

Hillary will be over 2,383 delegates before California finishes voting!

71 at this moment!

https://interactives.ap.org/2016/delegate-tracker/

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Response to SaschaHM (Original post)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 04:48 PM

4. I don't quite believe Bernie being ahead among Latinos...

 

but I do think the early voting edge is the important part. If the poll numbers are growing closer, that might not actually mean as much if some of those voters are already banked as Hillary votes.

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Response to SaschaHM (Original post)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 04:48 PM

5. Soon and very soon, California by even 100% for Sanders is still a loss for Sanders.

The landslide idea is not going to happen just as the super delegates are not going to flip to Sanders but the ones he has may flip to Hillary.

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Response to SaschaHM (Original post)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 05:10 PM

6. Who are these yahoos? They don't know the race is over? nt

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Response to BootinUp (Reply #6)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 05:16 PM

7. He's lived there for several weeks not surprised. But leading with Latinos ?

I'm glad she spending the rest of the time in Cali. I also think she will win but don't know what to make of these polls.

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Response to SaschaHM (Original post)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 05:18 PM

8. Horse race math.

We'll have to wait and see...but Bernie winning Latinos seems, well, very unrealistic.

I wonder if they're choosing a close result just to make sure you watch that night, but they can still say they were accurate if it's a Clinton win since they did project that, after all...

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Response to Treant (Reply #8)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 05:34 PM

10. Yeah, I'm guessing that they accounted for race, but not age.

I'm going to assume that the sample was mostly young latinos and not older ones.

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Response to SaschaHM (Original post)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 05:22 PM

9. a win is nice but not necessary. a ton of his votes are probably republican trump crossovers nt

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Response to msongs (Reply #9)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 04:09 AM

11. Yeah, Trump secured early enough for his voters to change registration to undeclared.

I don't know how many of them will actually put in the effort to screw with the Democratic primary, but we already saw from West Virginia that some will.

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