HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Topics » Politics & Government » Hillary Clinton (Group) » Quinnipiac’s Latino Probl...

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 09:33 AM

 

Quinnipiac’s Latino Problem: Shoddy Q Poll Strikes Again and Media Lap it Up (HRC GP)

Quinnipiac University has developed a reputation for outlier polls that consistently deliver bad news for Hillary Clinton and good news for Donald Trump. When we deconstruct their polls, Quinnipiac’s errors are glaringly obvious.

On June 29, we took apart a Q poll that showed Donald ahead of Hillary nationally by two points.



My colleagues Anthony Reed (predictive modeling expert and founder of the highly respected Benchmark Politics) and Eric Kleefeld pointed out that Quinnipiac was alone in its depiction of the race as particularly close. Most other polls at the time indicated a Hillary lead of between 4 and 6 points, and some polls placed her advantage at 8 points or above. Unsurprisingly, the Q poll got a wave of breathless media coverage. But a “unique poll result” is typically an indication of a bad poll result.



Here’s Quinnipiac’s fundamental problem: They tend to under-represent minorities. In their June 29 analysis, Reed and Kleefeld argued that polls like PPP, IBD/TIPP predict white turnout will be around 70 percent in 2016, down from 72 percent in the 2012 exit poll. Quinnipiac, on the other hand, has white turnout pegged at 73%. Another dubious finding in the June 29 Q poll is Latino support for Donald at 33% when most polls place it around 20%.

Quinnipiac’s reputation was already very shaky, in light of their dishonest, discredited, and widely disseminated 2015 poll announcing that in a word-association exercise, voters immediately thought of Hillary as a “liar.”

While Quinnipiac presented the poll as evidence that voters associated “liar” with Hillary, we demonstrated that it was Republican and Republican-leaning respondents to the Q-poll who linked Hillary to liar and other derogatory terms (including “bitch”). It is a vastly different thing for Republicans, parroting Fox news and talk radio, to hurl misogynistic insults at Hillary than for all voters to believe Hillary is a liar.


As Mediaite explained at the time: “As far as we know, only 35% of the people asked had something negative to say about Hillary Clinton.” But the way Quinnipiac and the media played it, Hillary was seen as a “liar” by the majority of American voters.


More in link: http://bluenationreview.com/shoddy-q-poll-strikes-again-and-media-lap-it-up/

6 replies, 1324 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 6 replies Author Time Post
Reply Quinnipiac’s Latino Problem: Shoddy Q Poll Strikes Again and Media Lap it Up (HRC GP) (Original post)
Her Sister Jul 2016 OP
sarae Jul 2016 #1
Her Sister Jul 2016 #2
KMOD Jul 2016 #3
wysi Jul 2016 #4
Walk away Jul 2016 #5
Mz Pip Jul 2016 #6

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 10:35 AM

1. Thank you for this!

I almost had a heart attack this morning when I saw the new poll results, but this makes me feel SO much better.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to sarae (Reply #1)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 10:36 AM

2. I know! :-)

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 11:20 AM

3. K&R

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 04:36 PM

4. TPM and Rachel are all over this crappy poll today...

... I guess the sky had to fall immediately after Unity Day.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 05:43 PM

5. That's Okay. The next set of polls will look even better.

We have to be prepared for Trump's V.P. pick and his convention giving him a bump. But then we have our day when the stupid email crap dissipates and we have an awesome convention.....then take a look at the polls.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 05:43 PM

6. The media want a horse race

The closer the better is good for ratings. They'll push any poll that advances that agenda.

It's early anyway, but we should not get complacent.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread