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Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forum538/Nate Silver-We Got Berned (this article does not help the Sanders position)
I actually read all of the article and more importantely understood it. The last thres paragraphs are set forth below and this article is not something that the Sanders people should be happy about http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/
And guess what? They sorta have a point. Although his gains may not be as great as before, polls in August showed Sanders continuing to pick up support in New Hampshire (the situation in Iowa is less clear). But the fundamentals of the race havent changed very much. In particular, Sanders has shown little sign of winning over votes from African-Americans or Hispanics, which would limit his growth as the race moves on to more racially diverse states.....
So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasnt made any inroads with non-white voters in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obamas toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsoss weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clintons edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19.
There are other indications that Sanders is unlikely to win the nomination. He hasnt won a single endorsement from a governor, senator or member of the U.S. House of Representatives (unlike Obama at this point in the 2008 campaign). Sanders is also well behind in the money race (again, unlike Obama). These indicators havent changed over the past month.
But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you cant win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.
So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasnt made any inroads with non-white voters in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obamas toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsoss weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clintons edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19.
There are other indications that Sanders is unlikely to win the nomination. He hasnt won a single endorsement from a governor, senator or member of the U.S. House of Representatives (unlike Obama at this point in the 2008 campaign). Sanders is also well behind in the money race (again, unlike Obama). These indicators havent changed over the past month.
But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you cant win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.
Why are the Sanders' supporters so happy about this article??? Sanders is not going to be the nominee of the Democratic party.
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538/Nate Silver-We Got Berned (this article does not help the Sanders position) (Original Post)
Gothmog
Sep 2015
OP
immoderate
(20,885 posts)1. Right. That article doesn't help.
--imm
shenmue
(38,506 posts)2. They don't talk about the problems
People who think their candidate is perfect do not talk about problems.
Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)3. Maybe the only read headlines?
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)4. Sanders had shown positive momentum up till now.
I think he has picked off the low hanging fruit and the rest he will have to take away from Hillary. He may get some current Hillary supporters but time and money are running out for him.
We will be well served with Hillary in the White House with Sanders, Warren, Feingold and Kamala Harris in the Senate.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)5. O hell yes, Kamala Harris!
riversedge
(70,214 posts)6. I will be canvassing for Feingold as much as possible