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Fri Sep 11, 2015, 11:42 PM

Politico--Insiders: Clinton still on track to win Iowa and N.H.

The Bernie Sanders surge is real. But Hillary has the 'best campaign infrastructure ever built,' according to one New Hampshire Democrat. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/clinton-survives-213529

Despite a barrage of bad headlines, lagging poll numbers and mounting evidence that she's in a dogfight with Bernie Sanders, Democratic insiders overwhelmingly think Hillary Clinton would win Iowa and New Hampshire if the contests were held this week.

That's the assessment of this week's POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top strategists, activists and operatives in the two early-voting states

Driving the high degree of confidence in Clinton's chances is a belief that her field organization is too formidable for Sanders to overcome. "Best campaign infrastructure ever built," said an uncommitted New Hampshire Democrat. "They can overcome any deficit."

Both in Iowa and New Hampshire, eight out of 10 Democrats surveyed said Clinton would win if the contests were held this week. Those responses come even as the Vermont senator pushed past Clinton in an Iowa poll released Thursday, something he has already done in New Hampshire.

"Although the polls say otherwise right now, I think Hillary will win the primary," a New Hampshire Democrat said. "It is still early, she retooled her campaign to better reflect her authenticity, trustworthiness and exceptional qualifications. Polls have been proven wrong, especially in NH!"....

A New Hampshire Democrat who said it's a toss-up between Clinton and Sanders, described the Democratic race this way: "Bernie is legitimately ahead in two recent and credible polls in NH, but...his margin is not large. This is where campaigns can make the difference. Clinton's team is super-organized, and has veterans who know where every last vote is. Sanders' field and GOTV aren't nearly as well established. In a close race this counts, so if it were today: tossup."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/clinton-survives-213529#ixzz3lUl9GKTv

Ground games can make a big difference in states like Iowa and New Hampshire and the Clinton campaign has been spending money on things like polls and a ground game. Sanders has started to build a ground game in Iowa but Clinton has most of the Obama team.

In 2008, many of the Obama team in Iowa went straight to Texas after Iowa to work on the Texas two step. Under the Texas two step, two-thirds of the delegates were allocated based on the primary and one-third based on caucuses. I worked with the Obama people and they were very very strong and knew their game theory. Hillary Clinton won the primary but Obama ended up with more overall delegates from Texas due to the caucuses.

There is time for Sanders to catch up but that is going to take a great deal of money and hiring people who understand how politics works. While according to Nate Silver, Clinton will be the nominee even if she loses in Iowa and New Hampshire, I am happy to see that some experts still place some faith in traditional political strategy such as the importance of a ground game.
This is the DU member formerly known as Gothmog.

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Reply Politico--Insiders: Clinton still on track to win Iowa and N.H. (Original post)
Gothmog Sep 2015 OP
Kath1 Sep 2015 #1

Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Fri Sep 11, 2015, 11:50 PM

1. I hope so.

I don't see BS ever winning in the GE.

Hillary has an excellent chance.

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