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Fri Sep 11, 2015, 11:48 PM

Nate Silver gives Hillary Clinton 93% odds of beating Bernie Sanders

Nate is always updating his numbers and has been very accurate http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/nate-silver-gives-hillary-clinton-93-odds-of-beating-bernie-sanders/22313/

Nate Silver, the polling analyst of FiveThirtyEight fame who correctly and definitively called the 2012 election at at time when most other pollsters thought it was too close to call, is speaking up on the 2106 election – and specifically the democratic party primary nomination race. Even as much of the media attempts to paint Hillary Clinton as being in trouble and Bernie Sanders as having momentum, Silver says the polls tell him just the opposite. In fact he’s assigning Clinton a 93% or better chance of defeating Sanders in the primary race.

Silver’s latest missive serves in part as a defense of Bernie Sanders against those who are attempting to paint him as merely being the “Donald Trump of the left.” He points to several key differences in what they stand for and how they’ve approached the election, but he also points out what’s obvious to anyone who studies the national polls rather than relying on misleading headline soundbites: Bernie is behind Hillary by “about 20 percentage points in national polls that include Joe Biden, and by 30 points in polls that don’t.” In other words, her massive lead is still massive, and despite the massive media hype over the summer, little has changed in terms of actual popularity. He goes on to handicap the odds in both primaries.

“What Sanders and Trump have in common is they’re both unlikely to be nominated,” he males clear before adding “If I were laying odds, I’d put either one at something like 15-1 or 20-1 against.” For those with a calculator handy, that means he’s giving Hillary Clinton a 93% (15-1) to 95% (20-1) chance of winning the democratic party primary. In case his message wasn’t clear enough, Nate Silver goes on to state that Bernie Sanders is “unlikely to be nominated” and if he did somehow win the nomination, he would be “unlikely to prevail next November.” In other words, this is still Hillary Clinton’s race to lose.
This is the DU member formerly known as Gothmog.

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Arrow 15 replies Author Time Post
Reply Nate Silver gives Hillary Clinton 93% odds of beating Bernie Sanders (Original post)
Gothmog Sep 2015 OP
Tarheel_Dem Sep 2015 #1
Kath1 Sep 2015 #2
Tommy2Tone Sep 2015 #9
Kath1 Sep 2015 #10
Tommy2Tone Sep 2015 #13
Kath1 Sep 2015 #14
Gothmog Sep 2015 #15
sheshe2 Sep 2015 #3
riversedge Sep 2015 #4
Jason Huh Sep 2015 #5
stonecutter357 Sep 2015 #6
Starry Messenger Sep 2015 #7
PJMcK Sep 2015 #8
Rose Siding Sep 2015 #11
DesertRat Sep 2015 #12

Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 12:04 AM

1. Rec #5

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 12:11 AM

2. Pretty good odds.

Hillary has what it takes to win in the GE.

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Response to Kath1 (Reply #2)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 08:33 AM

9. She is positioned to win for sure and the media hates it.

She does well with Dems and is going to wipe out the competition with people of color, independents and women.

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Response to Tommy2Tone (Reply #9)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 08:43 AM

10. Yes.I work at a huge complex with about a thousand people and I like to talk politics.

Everyone seems to have a favorable view of Hillary except, of course, the hard right wingers. The 20/30 something-age women I smoke-break with all support Hillary.

DU is not the country. All the BS support here is not what is really going on.

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Response to Kath1 (Reply #10)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 12:28 PM

13. I live in Texas and I am surrounded by tea party nuts.

A real shocker is one of the most outspoken tea party guys is mad because his wife told him she is going to vote for Hillary.

Turns out she works in a huge office as some kind of manager and a few months ago she discovered she is the lowest paid manager of her group. The others are all men and the only reason she knows is when one of her friends quit she told her. All this despite consistently getting the highest performance reviews in the office. Now she is a Hillary fan.

I know I am off subject but this lady proves a point I have with the right. They only feel empathy when it hits home. The above lady was happy as a bug and living in ignorance. When her eyes were open she did a 180 turn.

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Response to Tommy2Tone (Reply #13)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 12:55 PM

14. I know because I was there.

I was blissfully ignorant until the Iraq war, that I thought was stupid, started in 2003. Husband was a conservative, big time and my marriage was falling apart. I went to the March For Women's Lives and came out a changed person. Better late than never. And I am very happy as a liberal divorcee.

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Response to Tommy2Tone (Reply #13)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 01:30 PM

15. Hillary has a great deal of support here in Texas

This is the DU member formerly known as Gothmog.

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 12:52 AM

3. Yes!

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 01:03 AM

4. K and R--and thanks

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 01:28 AM

5. Rec, but.....

 

2106???

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 04:37 AM

6. K&R!

Good

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 05:49 AM

7. K&R

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 07:01 AM

8. Real numbers

K&R

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 10:04 AM

11. Hillary has been tested by fire. That Sanders would be "unlikely" to prevail

is kind.

Once the national media/gop turned their sights on him, his support would go down to Ralph Nader levels.

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Sat Sep 12, 2015, 11:37 AM

12. k&r

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