The Numbers Show Bernie Sanders Won’t Win, So What Will His Faithful Do Then?

[SunSeeker]

90% of Iowa’s population is white and Sanders is a New Englander, making a strong showing in the first two contests for him not all that surprising. But once that hurdle is cleared, barring some miraculous and monumental shift in national opinion, Bernie heads into an electoral gauntlet he won’t emerge from. It’s all about the numbers: According to Nate Silver’s 538which crunches a massive amount of polling data, district information and voter behavior and arrives at some scarily accurate predictions, when the primaries move to South Carolina, that’s when the plummet to the ground begins. 538 declares that Clinton has a 96% chance of taking the state. Then there’s Super Tuesday, which is a built-in firewall for Clinton as it’s a day in which she’s almost certain to sweep through the South, where Democrats tend to be more centrist and where a strong minority vote — which Sanders simply does not have — gives her a huge leg-up. Clinton can nearly bring it all home delegate-wise in one day. Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia are hers for the taking and if he’s honest with himself Bernie has to know this.

If Sanders somehow does survive Super Tuesday, then he has March 15th, two weeks later, to contend with. In Florida, which holds its primary on that date, combined polling puts Clinton at 61% while Sanders has only 26%; North Carolina has 58% for Clinton and 28% for Sanders; Ohio is 53% for Clinton, 39% for Sanders. Regardless, by now it’s all over. Keeping in mind that Clinton already has a 45 to 1 advantage over Sanders in terms of pledged superdelegates, this thing will almost certainly be sewn up before the end of spring. That’s not an opinion. It’s math. The thing about reality is that it’s always there and you’re subject to the constraints of it whether you choose to believe in it or not. Barring a political deus ex machina of statistically inexpressible proportions, Bernie Sanders just isn’t going to be president.

...
What Democrats and liberals in general can’t do is stay home out of spite. And it’s easy to look at the behavior of far too many Sanders supporters and discern that if Bernie’s presidential hopefuls die, a whole slew of Democratic votes die with him. They actually do conduct themselves like petulant children, and their unwillingness to acknowledge how both the electoral process and the American government works — which manifests clearly in the fact that they ignore campaign math and governmental reality in favor of emotional broad-strokes on how Bernie’s the singular figure who’ll make it all irrelevant — is a huge detriment to the Democratic party. 

http://thedailybanter.com/2016/02/sanders-numbers-game/

[Tobin S.]

2. We'll vote for Hillary in the general if Bernie loses the nomination.

I suppose a few might stay home, but most people understand what hangs in the balance if Republicans regain control of the White House. We're talking the Supreme Court nominations. We're talking ACA. We're talking gay rights and a host of other social issues which Hillary is very good on. All of that is extremely important even if you disagree with Hillary on economic policy. I think that if you are honest as a Sanders supporter, you agree that Hillary is much better than anyone the Republicans are throwing at us.

There are some liberals who will refuse to vote for Hillary in the general if Sanders loses the nomination. I think they are in an extreme minority. Anybody who is truly paying attention knows what is at stake here.

[Cha]

3. sanders, his supporters, the M$M, and the GOP have thrown all the garbage they can @Hillary and

she still came out ahead. All those forces against her wanted her to lose Iowa and lose by large numbers. Just didn't happen.

I would like to talk about the first paragraph @ your link.. sanders can "claim" anything he wants about how close it was But.. Hillary was the big Winner.

Bernie Sanders had a terrific night in Iowa. While Hillary Clinton edged him out by a paper-thin margin, voter-wise Sanders can claim to have just about managed a statistical tie. When you consider where he was just six months or so ago, to have risen to a position of being equals with one of the most powerful, heavily endorsed and well-financed candidates in American politics is a laudable feat. There’s an argument to be made that even a virtual tie with Clinton is a win for Sanders because he defied expectations and showed that he has some real political authority moving forward. But if you take a step back and look at the numbers coming out of the places both campaigns eventually end up, last night’s impressive showing — and the win Sanders should likely chalk up in New Hampshire next week — will lead to a pretty short-lived victory party. To make any difference in his future, Bernie needed to win last night — and win big. It was always a tall order, but it was essential.

No matter how far sanders came from behind in Iowa it is still a state that is "tailor made" just for him.. "He failed to win a state tailor made to his strengths."

Why ‘Virtual Tie’ in Iowa Is Better for Clinton Than Sanders

snip//

But in the end, a virtual tie in Iowa is an acceptable, if not ideal, result for Mrs. Clinton and an ominous one for Mr. Sanders. He failed to win a state tailor made to his strengths.

He fares best among white voters. The electorate was 91 percent white, per the entrance polls. He does well with less affluent voters. The caucus electorate was far less affluent than the national primary electorate in 2008. He’s heavily dependent on turnout from young voters, and he had months to build a robust field operation. As the primaries quickly unfold, he won’t have that luxury

.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/upshot/how-the-virtual-tie-in-iowa-helps-hillary-clinton.html?_r=0

The Unions and Dems were out for Hillary last night.. and in spite of all the negative forces claiming the Unions don't like Hillary.. she Won with their support.

John Haltiwanger
✔ ?@jchaltiwanger
Fun fact: Iowa is 92.1 percent white. Not exactly representative of the US. #IowaCaucus
4:36 PM - 1 Feb 2016 · Brooklyn,
52 52 Retweets 73 73 likes

Oh, and this..

✔ ?@AriMelber
Brightest news for Clinton tonight:
People who identify as Dems backed her by 17 points -- Sanders made up the gap with Independents.
7:32 PM - 1 Feb 2016
182 182 Retweets 263 263 likes

Ari Melber
✔ ?@AriMelber
And Clinton beat Sanders among union households by 9 points, undercutting some conventional wisdom.
7:38 PM - 1 Feb 2016
189 189 Retweets 153 153 likes

SEIU
✔ ?@SEIU
@HillaryClinton won this close, hard battle with strong SEIU ground support & turn out! #ImWithHer #SEIUForHillary https://twitter.com/AriMelber/status/694394551327391744 …
4:05 AM - 2 Feb 2016
25 25 Retweets 34 34 likes

http://theobamadiary.com/2016/02/02/early-bird-chat-655/#comments

My son is for sanders now but as he's written on his FB.. anyone who doesn't vote for Hillary in the GE is ******.

Thank you, SunSeeker~

[Thinkingabout]

4. K & R

Hillary did very well in Iowa, Sanders came in second, history books will record Sanders as second in Iowa in 2016.

[Dems to Win]

5. If Hillary loses the GE, it will be her own fault. No one else's.

Hillary chose to make $250,000 speeches to CitiBank et al, metaphorically throwing the bird to the Occupy Wall Streeters as she entered the banks.

Hillary knew she would be asking for the votes of Democrats, including OWS, in 2016. Hillary chose to make that task much more difficult for herself (and the Democratic Party, if she is the nominee) by accepting $250,000 from CitiBank for a speech in 2013.

Call Bernie's supporters petulant children till the cows come home. It won't change the fact that Hillary may well lose the GE due to her own greed and poor judgement.

[Walk away]

6. I think that the majority of Sanders supporters who are actually Democrats will switch their votes..

to Hillary without any problems. Naturally, many "internet warriors" on sites like DU will dig in their heels and refuse to vote at all, but they are a drop in the bucket. Not worth the effort of trying to convert.

There really is no chance of Sanders winning the nomination so, if you are a Democrat, ginning up all this hate is pretty unproductive. But in the end, I don't think it will matter much.

By the way, Citibank and other major international corporations routinely pay upwards of $200,000 for appearances by "rock star" speakers. Hillary Clinton has been the most respected woman in the world for 20 years. How much do you think Obama will be able to charge as a speaking fee? Possibly more. My uncle (who was a stunt man and trick pilot) had an excellent speaking career in retirement. He made $10,000 to $20,000 an appearance because he was popular and had a good agent. How much money do you think famous people make for appearing on stage???? And should Hillary be penalized because she (unlike Sanders) worked for a living and was paid for it?

[Dems to Win]

8. Hillary's a bright woman with a law degree, she had many ways she could 'make a living'

As if she would be on food stamps if she didn't make speeches, that's really believable, given Bill's hundred million in speaking fees.

If Obama was going to go before the voters again and portray himself as a man of the people who would stand up to Wall Street and the big banks, I'm quite certain he is smart enough that he would refrain from making speeches to CitiBank for $250,000 in the mean time.

I don't care about punishing or rewarding Hillary. That's not up to me.

The presidential election is about the country and our needs, the needs of millions of Americans who are not making it in the current status quo. Quarter million dollar speeches to CitiBank show me Hillary is not to be trusted to be on my side and the side of ordinary Americans.

[Walk away]

10. That's right everyone who works for a bank is bad!!!!!

[Dems to Win]

11. Banks stole homes from millions of Americans through mortgage fraud

The people at the top, the ones who made the decision to hire Hillary for a $250,000 speech, are not good people. If we had a Justice system that works for the people, like Iceland does, they would be in jail.

[Walk away]

12. It was also a big bank that gave me my mortgage.

So what? I took money from them and no one but a completely delusional person would accuse me of being at fault for the housing collapse.

You make it sound as if banks are scary creatures trying to destroy the world. They are just organizations that needs to have better rules and regulations in order to run in a way that makes them a profit but serves their clientele with good product.

That's why this fear mongering approach works so well with Millennials. Most of them don't have mortgages and retirement investments. And of course there's that free college! God forbid we just fix the college loan system so that it is fair.

[fleabiscuit]

22. Sure, sure...

People being complicit by taking multiple wildly backend loaded loans they couldn't pay for in a year on the bet they could sell again while the housing market was shooting upward had nothing to do with it.

[Tarheel_Dem]

9. You speak as if OWS was actually Democrats. It was libertarian at its roots.

[Cha]

21. Hillary's not going to lose.. she's the best candidate for POTUS. Those who won't vote for

her don't care about our Planet. Only interested in their own little version of facts. End of story

[Tarheel_Dem]

7. "North Carolina has 58% for Clinton and 28% for Sanders"

[William769]

13. Kick & highly recommended!

[reflection]

14. I think I'll dust off my very first post at DU

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5059991

Not that it's that great of a post (none of mine are) but the sentiment remains the same. To write Sanders off before actual votes are tallied is whistling past the graveyard. To call Sanders supporters 'petulant children' does a disservice to thinking people who happen to disagree. I'll certainly vote for whoever emerges from the fray, but I remember Hillary hanging around long past her mathematical shelf life against Obama in case he stumbled and fell, and I don't see why all the hand-wringing about Sanders, who has not been eliminated, not by a long shot yet. Just let the process play out.

edit: my spelling and grammar is horrible

[pandr32]

15. Hopefully Sanders supporters will support Clinton

...and show that they can be counted on by the Democratic Party. We can all work for change together.

[GusBob]

16. I think we will sees some bitter enders

People will point out in 2008, HRC didn't concede until June 7th.

There may be some who want to bleed the corporate sponsors of the HRC out of spite and bitterness

[sheshe2]

18. K&R

[OhZone]

19. "...in primaries you fall in love; in general elections, you fall in line."

The ones that don't vote for the Dem nominee make me sad.

And they'll probably be Inforwars Conspiracy fans eventually.

Hopefully it will be a minority.

[Bleacher Creature]

20. I suspect that most of the holdouts were never really Dems.

I've seen a bunch of them bragging about not voting for Gore or Kerry, and I've seen at least one who claimed to vote Green in at least one of Obama's wins.

[BlueCollar]

23. I will vote for Hillary...n/t