Looking to New Hampshire (Hillary Clinton Group)

[Treant]

I was thinking about this during the debates, and please feel free to criticize the below.

NH is pretty much a foregone conclusion as a Sanders win. The question remains...how much? Data from mid-week showed Sanders about +30 points ahead in the state and this time we'll see voting totals.

Personally, I expect some buyer's remorse post his slight loss in IA. The thing to watch for is erosion of that +30 as "protest voters" come home at the realization that a vote for Sanders really could make him the Democratic candidate.

The bands I've idly come up with are:

Clinton Win: Highly improbable, but on the extremely off chance it happens, Sanders' campaign effectively ends right there.

Sanders +0 to +10: Severe cracks showing in the Sanders campaign. While not the effective end, the long term outlook is a certain Clinton win faster than expected.

Sanders +10 to +15: Significant erosion of support. Clinton's win is still expected, but not as quickly.

Sanders +15 to +25: Around what I'd expect. The prognosis is still demographically good for Clinton with a probable win, but this will stretch well into May.

Sanders +25 to +35: Sanders performing well. Clinton still probably wins, but this goes into June as we approach the convention. The superdelegate vote now becomes quite important.

Sanders +35 or greater: An extremely good performance for Sanders and Clinton would be wise to change her tactics at this point. Her win is no longer certain (but by no means impossible).

[leftofcool]

1. Sanders is done right after Super Tuesday no matter the outcome in NH

[Treant]

2. Pretty much

He'd have to overperform seriously for me to consider him a threat. Hence the "major issues" for Clinton don't show up until a very high-water point on the above. Which I'm sure drives Bernie supporters reading that absolutely nuts, but it's true. NH isn't IL, PA, or SC by a long shot.

[MrWendel]

3. The...

fact that she is going into states with actual minority representation like most of the country is where the game changes.

[Cha]

4. It may be a "foregone conclusion", Treant, but we all know

that Hillary and her brilliant Team are not treating it as such and I love it!


MSNBC
?@MSNBC .@HillaryClinton defines what it means to be progressive at the #DemDebate. Watch live: http://on.msnbc.com/23L9d02

Boooom!

Thank you!

[Treant]

6. Indeed, and I approve.

The point here is not to win, necessarily, but to make the best showing possible. That should be true in all states.

Of course a win would be nice, and she's sure working toward it, but none of us will hold it against her if not.

[Cha]

7. Right! An upset would be beautiful but

we understand the Demographics of New Hampshire are not as favorable to her, even though all these amazing leaders are endorsing Hillary.

Seventy-Eight New Hampshire Democratic State Representatives Endorse Hillary Clinton for President in Open Letter, Less than Sixty Days Ahead of the Primary

snip//

We are coming together to support Hillary Clinton – and hope more of our colleagues will join us – because her tenacity, passion, and depth of knowledge are unmatched,” said Concord State Representative and former House majority leader Mary Jane Wallner. “Representing towns and families across the state, we know about the challenges that keep them up at night. All through the summer and fall, Hillary Clinton has been laying out bold, detailed proposals to tackle those concerns and make a difference for Granite State families as President.”

http://nhlabornews.com/2015/12/78-new-hampshire-house-reps-endorse-hillary/

snip//

A group of New Hampshire mayors endorsed Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton and her $275 Billion infrastructure improvement plan. Eight mayors and mayors-elect came out in support of Clinton’s plan, which includes $25 Billion for an infrastructure bank. Talk of infrastructure is not “the flashiest,” but towns and cities are in constant struggle to repair roads and bridges, said Somersworth Mayor Dana Hilliard. “It would be a surge for local businesses.” The Clinton plan cites an estimate that for every $1 Billion in infrastructure investment, 13,000 jobs are created. The $275 Billion over five years would be paid for from business tax reform, according to the campaign. Mayors supporting Clinton on Monday: Hilliard, Concord Mayor Jim Bouley, Rochester Mayor Tim Jean, Rochester Mayor-elect - Caroline McCarley, Portsmouth Mayor Bob Lister, Portsmouth Mayor-elect Jack Blalock, Keene Mayor Kendall Lane, and Nashua Mayor-elect Jim Donchess.

http://www.unionleader.com/Half_of_NH_mayors_endorse_Clinton

On the Road in Keene, NH~


U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton hands her microphone to an audience member for a question at a campaign town hall meeting in Keene, New Hampshire October 16, 2015. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

http://still4hill.com/2015/10/16/on-the-road-with-hillary-clinton-keene-new-hampshire/

[msongs]

5. NH, right next to Vermont where sanders has been a lifer politician. he ought to do well there nt

[MarianJack]

8. My personal opinion is...

...that it'll be over by the end of March.

Sanders' conduct, but mostly that of many of his supporters (many of whom may be trolling Republicans/teabaggers) has made me respect him a lot less!

PEACE!

[GusBob]

9. The beatings will continue to morale improves

Sanders takes NH by 30+

The attacks on HRC will continue and in effect ramp up. The Bernie Bros: unleashed & inflicting the bern with imagined impunity

Unbeknownst to them and their group think, HRC is used to being attacked, and unfazed. More importantly, the general public wearies of their all caps barbs and the backlash is a total beat-down from Super Tuesday on.

[BlueCaliDem]

11. This presidential primary election is so different from 2008. This time around, those Millennials,

those Bernie supporters, are meaner, more nasty than those who supported Senator Obama. I don't recall them being this angry, this nasty toward Hillary Clinton or her supporters back in 2008. And you know what the difference is? Barack Obama.

No Drama-Obama had asked them to be respectful and not boo but vote! He was a true leader who knew how to keep the froth off the mouths of his more enthusiastic supporters.

That's one of the biggest differences between then and now, between Obama and Sanders, with regard to Millennials. Millennials were actually Millennials, not "Bernie Bros" and they were, back in 2008, focused on getting out the vote, knocking on doors, registering new voters, and talking with people respectfully and with knowledge. I feel that's missing among them this time around.

[GusBob]

13. Very good points

Maturity, or lack of, is the reason.

[yallerdawg]

10. She is headed to Flint, Michigan Sunday.

Some pundits are suggesting this tells us all we need to know about the New Hampshire outcome.

[Stuckinthebush]

12. NH doesn't matter

SC and then March will be the death of the Sanders campaign. They still don't seem to understand that over in GD-P, but math is math.

BUT...to the spirit of your OP I think you are right on. I'm expecting a 15 point Sanders win. This would be hailed as amazing by Sanders and his supporters but we know that it will be great for Clinton.

I suspect her internal polling shows a much closer race than the 30 point spread, and she is going to be there over the weekend. She may move onto NV on Monday depending on internals.

In the end, it won't matter. She is already over 300+ delegates ahead of him. This game is over. Sanders supporters just don't understand it.

[George II]

14. Except for some recent NH polls (and VT, of course), your last two bands won't materialize anywhere

In fact, looking over the polls that are available across the country, even the first band isn't there, at least yet.

Clinton has "comfortable" leads in both Nevada and South Carolina - more than 2-1 in each state. That will net her about 50 delegates to Sanders' 30.

Super Tuesday could be the knockout blow - Clinton ~ 480 to 400 delegates, Sanders ~ 360 to 380.

After New Hampshire and Vermont (on Super Tuesday), Sanders isn't even close in any other state. At that point,