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BillyDawg

(82 posts)
Sat Feb 27, 2016, 01:31 PM Feb 2016

A Few Thoughts..

As we are now about five and a half hours away from the polls closing in South Carolina..

1. Hillary is going to win today, there is no doubt about that. So no matter what happens, rejoice in that fact and the fact that she will then have won 3 of the first 4 states. The question we face today is, how much will she win by?

2. To follow up that question, I really do think anything under 10 percent would be a fantastic day for Bernie. It's been protrayed as a huge blowout here, and if that happened, that would be a great day for him and I know it would be spun that way. I went on record saying that anything under 10 would have been a good day for Hillary in New Hampshire, and I think that rule applies here too. Just being honest.

3. THAT SAID, I don't think it'll be that close. I think it'll be 15+. And if they consider that a win, then that is a huge stretch. I've seen the "anything under 20 is a win," and that's some pretty sad standards. If we didn't have polling, just think about how bad that defeat would look in a heavily AA state. Plus, that starts to give her a nice little cushion in delegates heading into Super Tuesday.

4. I really, really hope she wins this by over 20 for several reasons. One, the delegates she will bring in. Two, that'll put her back on top of the popular vote so we can stop hearing about that stupid theory. And three, it gives us a ton of momentum heading into Super Tuesday, which is just a few short days away! When Bernie won New Hampshire, he was overshadowed by the fact that Trump had just won his first state. Don't get me wrong, I understand there is still going to be plenty of coverage on the Republican race, but Hillary's defeat will have a lot more pull in the media. I'm not saying she needs a huge win by any means, but a large win today would help her in a huge way.

5. Bernie supporters are going to be very defensive on the GD board tonight. If they keep it closer than expected, they will be going bananas. If they lose by a lot, except some major bashing. So, just want to say that I hope all of you keep your calm, I don't want to see any of you lose your posting privileges

All that said, here is to a great day today. Although she's already doing well, hopefully today is where Hillary really starts her magnificent run to become the first woman president in the history of the United States.

Let's do this South Carolina

9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
A Few Thoughts.. (Original Post) BillyDawg Feb 2016 OP
I expect we are going to get... yallerdawg Feb 2016 #1
:) Lucinda Feb 2016 #2
This message was self-deleted by its author SharonClark Feb 2016 #3
Thanks for this post SharonClark Feb 2016 #4
K&R. nt UtahLib Feb 2016 #5
On point 4 MSMITH33156 Feb 2016 #6
I agree, but BillyDawg Feb 2016 #7
Oh she'll pass him tonight. They're saying there was a big turnout for a primary. Big turnout.... George II Feb 2016 #9
Nate Silver's NastyRiffraff Feb 2016 #8

Response to BillyDawg (Original post)

MSMITH33156

(879 posts)
6. On point 4
Sat Feb 27, 2016, 05:10 PM
Feb 2016

the popular vote is something Bernie voters might cling too, but it's worthless. Since caucuses don't count actual votes, there isn't really a popular vote, although you'll see it reported.

 

BillyDawg

(82 posts)
7. I agree, but
Sat Feb 27, 2016, 05:11 PM
Feb 2016

You could easily see her pass him tonight if she beats him by enough, and it's just one less thing we have to listen to from that, and that's a positive.

George II

(67,782 posts)
9. Oh she'll pass him tonight. They're saying there was a big turnout for a primary. Big turnout....
Sat Feb 27, 2016, 05:21 PM
Feb 2016

....bigger win percentage-wise in a bigger state than New Hampshire. Even that one bragging point will go by the wayside tonight.

Then it's all downhill from there.

NastyRiffraff

(12,448 posts)
8. Nate Silver's
Sat Feb 27, 2016, 05:20 PM
Feb 2016

59.9 to 28.2 sounds good to me!

Really, I'll be happy if she wins by 15, ecstatic if she wins by 20, over the moon if she wins by 30.

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