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Her Sister

(6,444 posts)
Tue Mar 1, 2016, 07:52 PM Mar 2016



"Super Tuesday: Live Coverage
2016 ELECTION UPDATED 6:23 PM MAR 1, 2016

Q: What is a good/great/bad night for Hillary in delegate count — what is her/Bernie’s floor/ceiling? — commenter Rodrigo Paramo

A: Our delegate tracker interactive projects that Clinton would need to win 453 delegates tonight to be “on track” for a majority of pledged delegates, while Sanders would need 412. So, I’d say anything under close to 500 would be a very good night for Clinton, while anything over 550 would be a terrific night. Anything over 400 would be a celebration-worthy night for Sanders, while anything under 300 would be a viability-devastating outcome for him."
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/ (Original Post) Her Sister Mar 2016 OP
K&R! stonecutter357 Mar 2016 #1
Good anology Thinkingabout Mar 2016 #2
This is a great MSMITH33156 Mar 2016 #3
GOP needed numbers tonite to have a good night Her Sister Mar 2016 #4
Rachel said a little while ago that Hillary's camp thinks they'll lose MA? Satch59 Mar 2016 #5
Most of us here suspect MA will be Too Close for Comfort jmowreader Mar 2016 #6
NBC MSMITH33156 Mar 2016 #7
K&R ismnotwasm Mar 2016 #8
so she is on track! Her Sister Mar 2016 #9
Hillary won 505 delegates, BS 334 yesterday Her Sister Mar 2016 #10


(879 posts)
3. This is a great
Tue Mar 1, 2016, 07:55 PM
Mar 2016

Thanks! It's hard to see what's good and not because states don't matter, it's delegates. Great level setter.


Her Sister

(6,444 posts)
4. GOP needed numbers tonite to have a good night
Tue Mar 1, 2016, 07:55 PM
Mar 2016

According to FiveThirtyEight’s handy new delegate interactive, Trump needs about 225 delegates in tonight’s contests to be “on track” to win 1,237 — a majority — of convention delegates by June. By contrast, Cruz needs 302 delegates (mostly because his route runs through his home state of Texas), while Rubio needs only about 203.

However, given Trump’s dominance so far, winning only 225 delegates tonight would have to be considered something of a disappointment for his backers. What would a really terrific Trump night look like? I’d argue that he would need to win more than 300 of the 595 available to look dominant. What would an OK/unsurprising night look like? Probably between 250 and 300.

How about a disappointing night for Trump? That probably means anything less than 250, which would open the door for Rubio or someone else to overtake him in later winner-take-all states. Fellow data nerds: agree or disagree on these over/unders?"


(1,353 posts)
5. Rachel said a little while ago that Hillary's camp thinks they'll lose MA?
Tue Mar 1, 2016, 07:59 PM
Mar 2016

Thought she was expected to win or maybe be close?


(50,716 posts)
6. Most of us here suspect MA will be Too Close for Comfort
Tue Mar 1, 2016, 08:29 PM
Mar 2016

Somewhere in the neighborhood of Sanders +3 to Clinton +2 is my best guess. It is a very white state that borders Vermont.


(879 posts)
7. NBC
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:38 AM
Mar 2016

just ESTIMATED the delegates. It's fuzzy math because they haven't counted all the votes yet and allocated them. But they were saying roughly 525 tonight for Hillary. That puts her in the "very good" to "terrific" range.

Bernie is down the 300s.

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