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Tue Mar 1, 2016, 06:52 PM

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/

"Super Tuesday: Live Coverage
2016 ELECTION UPDATED 6:23 PM MAR 1, 2016

DAVID WASSERMAN 6:46 PM
Q: What is a good/great/bad night for Hillary in delegate count — what is her/Bernie’s floor/ceiling? — commenter Rodrigo Paramo

A: Our delegate tracker interactive projects that Clinton would need to win 453 delegates tonight to be “on track” for a majority of pledged delegates, while Sanders would need 412. So, I’d say anything under close to 500 would be a very good night for Clinton, while anything over 550 would be a terrific night. Anything over 400 would be a celebration-worthy night for Sanders, while anything under 300 would be a viability-devastating outcome for him."

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Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
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Arrow 10 replies Author Time Post
Reply http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/ (Original post)
Her Sister Mar 2016 OP
stonecutter357 Mar 2016 #1
Thinkingabout Mar 2016 #2
MSMITH33156 Mar 2016 #3
Her Sister Mar 2016 #4
Satch59 Mar 2016 #5
jmowreader Mar 2016 #6
MSMITH33156 Mar 2016 #7
ismnotwasm Mar 2016 #8
Her Sister Mar 2016 #9
Her Sister Mar 2016 #10

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 06:54 PM

1. K&R!

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 06:55 PM

2. Good anology

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 06:55 PM

3. This is a great

Thanks! It's hard to see what's good and not because states don't matter, it's delegates. Great level setter.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 06:55 PM

4. GOP needed numbers tonite to have a good night

 

"DAVID WASSERMAN 6:28 PM
According to FiveThirtyEight’s handy new delegate interactive, Trump needs about 225 delegates in tonight’s contests to be “on track” to win 1,237 — a majority — of convention delegates by June. By contrast, Cruz needs 302 delegates (mostly because his route runs through his home state of Texas), while Rubio needs only about 203.

However, given Trump’s dominance so far, winning only 225 delegates tonight would have to be considered something of a disappointment for his backers. What would a really terrific Trump night look like? I’d argue that he would need to win more than 300 of the 595 available to look dominant. What would an OK/unsurprising night look like? Probably between 250 and 300.

How about a disappointing night for Trump? That probably means anything less than 250, which would open the door for Rubio or someone else to overtake him in later winner-take-all states. Fellow data nerds: agree or disagree on these over/unders?"

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 06:59 PM

5. Rachel said a little while ago that Hillary's camp thinks they'll lose MA?

Thought she was expected to win or maybe be close?

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Response to Satch59 (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 07:29 PM

6. Most of us here suspect MA will be Too Close for Comfort

Somewhere in the neighborhood of Sanders +3 to Clinton +2 is my best guess. It is a very white state that borders Vermont.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 11:38 PM

7. NBC

just ESTIMATED the delegates. It's fuzzy math because they haven't counted all the votes yet and allocated them. But they were saying roughly 525 tonight for Hillary. That puts her in the "very good" to "terrific" range.

Bernie is down the 300s.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 11:42 PM

8. K&R

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 08:57 AM

9. so she is on track!

 

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:39 AM

10. Hillary won 505 delegates, BS 334 yesterday

 

She had 91, plus 505 now is up to 596.
BS had 65, plus 334 now is up to 399

197 points difference

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/


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