Clinton Voters Like Obama More Than Sanders Supporters Do

The bottom half of the table shows attitudes that were measured in the wake of the 2012 election, between November 2012 and January 2013. We see, for instance, that Clinton and Sanders supporters differ little on questions about overall government spending or targeted assistance for African-Americans. Like the Iraq War, the Affordable Care Act may divide the candidates (paywalled), but it does not seem to split their supporters. Nor do immigration attitudes or measures of prejudice against blacks or Latinos.1

But notice the Obama feeling thermometer. Even back in the aftermath of Obama’s 2012 victory, those who would become Clinton supporters in 2016 rated Obama at 0.82 on the 0-1 scale, as opposed to just 0.72 for those who would become Sanders supporters. That difference remains sizable even when looking only at non-black respondents. In recent debates with Sanders, Clinton’s embrace of Obama has been striking. But more than a tactical play for black voters, that embrace may reflect deeper differences in the two candidates’ bases of support.

And it’s not just about Obama. As the table’s final line shows, Sanders voters were markedly more likely to agree that “at present, I feel very critical of our political system,” scoring 0.66 on a scale from 0 (“strongly disagree”) to 1 (“strongly agree”). Sanders backers are notably more disaffected, a fact which might explain their reluctance to back a longtime insider like Clinton.

It is always tempting to see the current campaign in light of past ones, especially when one of the same candidates is on the ballot. But the divisions between Clinton and Sanders are not simply a reflection of those between Clinton and Obama eight years ago, with Sanders stepping into the role of Obama. Voters’ orientation toward the political establishment — in this case, Clinton and Obama — is an issue that wasn’t present in 2008. And while Edwards has left the political stage, the appeal of his economic populism lives on.