Hillary Clinton

Her Sister

(6,444 posts) Thu Mar 10, 2016, 11:37 AM Mar 2016

538 live blog last night about Florida's Dem Debate

It is a conversation b/w Nate Silver and his colleagues ~start from the bottom go up:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/democratic-debate-miami-presidential-election-2016/

Snippet:

"CARL BIALIK 9:18 PM
Sanders is right that he has come a long way from early 2015, when he polled below 5 percent in many national surveys. But his progress has slowed since last fall; he pulled within about 20 points in national polling averages five months ago, and still trails by about 15 points now. Moreover, now that Clinton has stretched her delegate lead, Sanders will have to consistently beat Clinton, not just close the gap, in subsequent contests."

4 replies

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538 live blog last night about Florida's Dem Debate (Original Post) Her Sister Mar 2016 OP

He may win a few more states, but not by "blow-outs" pandr32 Mar 2016 #1

Sanders will have to consistently beat Clinton, not just close the gap, in subsequent contests" riversedge Mar 2016 #2

Thank you@! Cha Mar 2016 #3

there's more in the link: Her Sister Mar 2016 #4

pandr32

(11,581 posts)

1. He may win a few more states, but not by "blow-outs"

Reply to Her Sister (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 11:46 AM

Mar 2016

...so Hillary Clinton would still add to the delegate total. Of course Hillary Clinton will win some states, too, and by a larger margin. The math says there is no way for Sanders to meet the needed delegate goal unless he more or less shut her out from winning any more delegates--no way for that to happen. She would have to leave the race for him to win it.

riversedge

(70,204 posts)

2. Sanders will have to consistently beat Clinton, not just close the gap, in subsequent contests"

Reply to Her Sister (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 11:50 AM

Mar 2016

YUP. and it will not happen IMHO

Sanders will have to consistently beat Clinton, not just close the gap, in subsequent contests" http://demu.gr/110769173 #feeltheBern (NOT)

Cha

(297,184 posts)

3. Thank you@!

Reply to Her Sister (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 11:55 AM

Mar 2016

Her Sister

(6,444 posts)

4. there's more in the link:

Reply to Her Sister (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 11:58 AM

Mar 2016

Here another snippet of question and answer:

micahcohen2_light
MICAH COHEN 10:02 PM
Take a step back from the debate for a moment: How worried should we be that the polls in Ohio, Illinois and maybe Missouri could be as wrong as they were in Michigan?

HARRY ENTEN 10:02 PM
I’m somewhat worried, Micah, but let’s not go bonkers. We had a big error in New Hampshire in 2008 in Clinton’s favor, but the rest of the campaign didn’t feature major polling errors in her favor. If there’s a state I’m worried about most, it’s Ohio, which is like Michigan in a lot of ways.

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