Thu Mar 10, 2016, 11:37 AM

538 live blog last night about Florida's Dem Debate

It is a conversation b/w Nate Silver and his colleagues ~start from the bottom go up:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/democratic-debate-miami-presidential-election-2016/

Snippet:

"CARL BIALIK 9:18 PM
Sanders is right that he has come a long way from early 2015, when he polled below 5 percent in many national surveys. But his progress has slowed since last fall; he pulled within about 20 points in national polling averages five months ago, and still trails by about 15 points now. Moreover, now that Clinton has stretched her delegate lead, Sanders will have to consistently beat Clinton, not just close the gap, in subsequent contests."

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4 replies	Author	Time	Post
538 live blog last night about Florida's Dem Debate (Original post)	Her Sister	Mar 2016	OP
He may win a few more states, but not by "blow-outs"	pandr32	Mar 2016	#1
Sanders will have to consistently beat Clinton, not just close the gap, in subsequent contests"	riversedge	Mar 2016	#2
Thank you@!	Cha	Mar 2016	#3
there's more in the link:	Her Sister	Mar 2016	#4

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 11:46 AM

pandr32 (9,965 posts)

1. He may win a few more states, but not by "blow-outs"

...so Hillary Clinton would still add to the delegate total. Of course Hillary Clinton will win some states, too, and by a larger margin. The math says there is no way for Sanders to meet the needed delegate goal unless he more or less shut her out from winning any more delegates--no way for that to happen. She would have to leave the race for him to win it.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 11:50 AM

riversedge (65,410 posts)

2. Sanders will have to consistently beat Clinton, not just close the gap, in subsequent contests"

YUP. and it will not happen IMHO

Sanders will have to consistently beat Clinton, not just close the gap, in subsequent contests" http://demu.gr/110769173 #feeltheBern (NOT)

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 11:55 AM

Cha (283,906 posts)

3. Thank you@!

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 11:58 AM

Her Sister (6,444 posts)

4. there's more in the link:

Here another snippet of question and answer:

micahcohen2_light
MICAH COHEN 10:02 PM
Take a step back from the debate for a moment: How worried should we be that the polls in Ohio, Illinois and maybe Missouri could be as wrong as they were in Michigan?

HARRY ENTEN 10:02 PM
I’m somewhat worried, Micah, but let’s not go bonkers. We had a big error in New Hampshire in 2008 in Clinton’s favor, but the rest of the campaign didn’t feature major polling errors in her favor. If there’s a state I’m worried about most, it’s Ohio, which is like Michigan in a lot of ways.

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