Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forum538 live blog last night about Florida's Dem Debate
It is a conversation b/w Nate Silver and his colleagues ~start from the bottom go up:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/democratic-debate-miami-presidential-election-2016/
Snippet:
"CARL BIALIK 9:18 PM
Sanders is right that he has come a long way from early 2015, when he polled below 5 percent in many national surveys. But his progress has slowed since last fall; he pulled within about 20 points in national polling averages five months ago, and still trails by about 15 points now. Moreover, now that Clinton has stretched her delegate lead, Sanders will have to consistently beat Clinton, not just close the gap, in subsequent contests."
pandr32
(12,082 posts)...so Hillary Clinton would still add to the delegate total. Of course Hillary Clinton will win some states, too, and by a larger margin. The math says there is no way for Sanders to meet the needed delegate goal unless he more or less shut her out from winning any more delegates--no way for that to happen. She would have to leave the race for him to win it.
riversedge
(72,680 posts)YUP. and it will not happen IMHO
Sanders will have to consistently beat Clinton, not just close the gap, in subsequent contests" http://demu.gr/110769173 #feeltheBern (NOT)
Cha
(304,374 posts)Her Sister
(6,444 posts)Here another snippet of question and answer:
micahcohen2_light
MICAH COHEN 10:02 PM
Take a step back from the debate for a moment: How worried should we be that the polls in Ohio, Illinois and maybe Missouri could be as wrong as they were in Michigan?
HARRY ENTEN 10:02 PM
Im somewhat worried, Micah, but lets not go bonkers. We had a big error in New Hampshire in 2008 in Clintons favor, but the rest of the campaign didnt feature major polling errors in her favor. If theres a state Im worried about most, its Ohio, which is like Michigan in a lot of ways.