I've literally never posted here (as you all can attest) and was accused of being a plant

[Recursion]

But, here's my predictions for Tuesday

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1467539

FL: 246 delegates

FL is southern, but less black and more hispanic than the cotton states that Clinton has been dominating in; the data about Sanders's support among Hispanics is ambiguous to me. Clinton is polling 35 points up (as compared to the 20 she had been polling up in MI). FL voted Obama in 2008 and 2012.

FL is also a closed primary, which is bad for Sanders. I think this is going to be a Clinton blowout like the rest of the deep south has been, along the lines of 68-30.

NC: 121 delegates

NC is southern, 70% white, 20% AA, and in many ways similar to TN, which Clinton carried 2 to 1. Clinton is polling 20 points up. NC voted Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012.

NC is an open primary, which is good for Sanders. Assuming the MI turnout model problem is universal (and I think it is for open primaries), I think Clinton very narrowly takes this, 50-48 or so, with the delegates as basically a wash.

OH: 159 delegates

OH is rust belt. 82% white, 12% black. In many ways similar to Michigan, which Sanders won by 2 points recently. Clinton is polling 20 points up, like she was at this point in MI. OH voted Obama in 2008 and 2012.

OH is an open primary, and I think it will see a MI-like bump for Sanders, which will put him just over the top, to 50-49.

IL: 182 delegates

IL is also rust belt. 70% white, 15% black. Also has many similarities with Michigan, but now has the central place in the Lakes economy that MI used to have. Clinton is polling ahead by 40 points. Voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Clinton has some personal attachment to IL but no particular political history there like Obama had. Illinois is an open primary, and I think will see the same kind of turnout effect that MI did, but in this case it won't be enough to get him over the top there. I call close Clinton win, just over 50/50.

MO: 84 delegates

MO is either midwestern or Plains or southern depending on whom you ask. 85% white, 11% black. Voted for McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012. Hasn't been polled (that I can find) in a loooong time.

MO is an open primary, which is again good for Sanders, and demographically and economically it is a better state for him, closer to KS and NE, which he won.

If there's any state where Sanders is poised to make a Michigan-type upset on Tuesday, it's MO. Unfortunately they only have 84 delegates, but I think this could really be a stunner. I predict something like 55-45, Sanders

TLDR:

I predict Clinton wins IL, NC, and FL getting 444 total delegates; Sanders wins MO and OH getting 348 delegates.

My prediction for IL is the one I feel weakest about, and I'm willing to guarantee it's going to be a squeaker no matter what

Curious what this group thinks of this.

Signed, an O'Malley supporter who is taking all kinds of shit.

[George II]

1. Missouri seems to be a black hole of polling, no one knows who is doing what there. I think....

...you're right about Illinois, North Carolina, and Florida, but also think Clinton will win Ohio.

[Recursion]

2. Right? MO is the big unknown

I grant Clinton is quite strong in Ohio, but I think Sanders is really concentrating there. That and MO have to be his big results.

[Loki]

3. I'm in Missouri, and I really don't

think Bernie will win here. There isn't even any current polling in this state. Even though we have an open primary, we have large cities that have large AA communities and other communities of color. If he does, it will be because the Republicans will continue to act as spoilers. I have a 23 year old son who was a Bernie supporter, but he has also paid attention to the promises, and came to his own conclusion that they aren't attainable because we will continue to have a Republican obstructive congress. Just my thoughts.

[Recursion]

4. Polling has been gone since August, right?

I guess we'll see...

[Loki]

15. Nothing, but right now 11 of the 13 Super Delegates

are pledged to Hillary. Sometime last year, she led Sanders by almost 30%. I know it's probably changed, but I don't think among Democrats, Sander's will come out on top. Like I said, this is an open primary and Republican's feeling confident of a Trump victory in this state, will easily cast a spoiler vote. We have a Democratic Governor and Senator Claire McCaskill who have endorsed her campaign. The Kansas City Mayor and others such as Rep. Emanuel Cleaver and the mayor of St. Louis have come out in support for her. Looking forward to getting out 3 votes from our family right now!

[kstewart33]

7. Loki, like your son did, I wish more voters would pause and take a closer look at Bernie.

Hi DOA promises in Congress, his track record in Congress as a backbencher, and the costs of his platform, not to mention his biography which the Republicans will exploit if he won the nomination.

People just seem to be mesmerized by him. Everything is free, free, free even when it won't be.

[Loki]

22. That was his biggest turning point and he was a big Bernie supporter.

We talked for a long time last Sunday, and he's very aware of what things cost since he has moved out on his own and is experiencing what the real world is like. He certainly liked the idea of free college, since his college loan debt feels mountainous to him, but he said, someone has to pay for this, and it won't be the big guys. He's right. Even when he was just in 2nd grade, he was so concerned with the *2000 selection that he would come home every day and ask what the Supreme Court had decided. We were in Texas at that time and I remember one of his teachers asked the class what famous person would they like to have lunch with and write a short paper about it. Of course, everyone chose GWB, but he chose Al Gore. His teacher called him up to her desk and asked him about the paper, and he told her "I really wouldn't want to have lunch with someone I didn't respect." She did, to her credit, give him an "A". LOL He hasn't stopped since. I'm very proud of him.

[yardwork]

25. My son came to the same conclusion.

[kstewart33]

5. I think your analysis is right on.

Hillary's chances are the slightest in OH and MO. I'm hoping that both states will be close and her winning margins in FL, IL and NC will net her more delegates than Sanders.

[Recursion]

6. MO will be quite interesting (nt)

[pandr32]

8. Good job and pleased to meet you!

[CanonRay]

9. I think NC is a hair more liberal than Tennessee

and Bernie might do a bit better than your prediction. Nice to see rational thought for a change, instead of sniping. Thanks.

[Recursion]

10. NC I think is solid Clinton; IL is to me the big question

Along with MO, which literally no campaign seems to know a damn thing about at this point.

[Cha]

14. As you know Recusion this is Hillary's Group.. not really interested in anyone in here

hoping sanders will do "better". They have the whole rest of the board for that.

Thank you very much.

[CanonRay]

16. 'Scuse me for trying to be rational

a thousand humble apologies.

[Cha]

18. You do have the whole rest of the board. What is it about Hillary's Group for her supporters

that you don't understand?

I know you're being nice but we don't have much space on this board without being overrun.. and this is it.

Nobody said you weren't "rational".

[Recursion]

23. Was I hoping for that? (nt)

[Cha]

27. I was talking about bringing others in .. BS supporters. I already explained

to one that this is our Group.

I know you're not some plant.. but we have one space on DU and this is it.

[Recursion]

30. Got it. I'll leave it at this thread

Don't worry!

[Cha]

31. I'm not worried.. just setting the boundaries. Anyone would do that.

thank you for your analysis.

[yardwork]

26. I vote to let him stay. At least we can talk to him.

[Cha]

28. I'm not going to block Recursion.. just wanted to remind him that this is our Group for

Hillary supporters.

[yardwork]

37. That's cool. That's how we roll.

Thank you for volunteering to keep this one space for us to talk without having to be screamed at.

[Cha]

13. Well, I hope not. 'this is Hillary's Group for her Supporters. Thank you.

[dcbuckeye]

11. I have a different take on Ohio

Interesting analysis, but i have a different take on Ohio. I think Hillary will win Ohio by 5 or 10 points for the following reasons. Ohio has been early voting for 3 or 4 weeks now. So Bernie's whole campaign about tying bad trade deals to Clinton (which helped him in Michigan) may be coming too late. Also, although Ohio has an open primary allowing independents to come in and vote for Bernie, I'm guessing the vast majority of independents would rather weigh in on the Trump vs. Kasich battle which is a lot closer than the polls say the democratic race is. I may be wrong. But just a hunch on my part. As a side note, Illinois has been early voting for awhile now, too. So the "bad trade deal" strategy Bernie used successfully in Michigan may be too late for Illinois as well.

[Recursion]

12. Huh. It's an interesting thought.

I'm curious to see how that ends up

[yardwork]

20. Good point about Kasich. I hope you're right.

[Recursion]

24. Yeah, Kasich's presence will be really interesting...

[book_worm]

17. I feel good about FL, NC & IL

Florida--65%
North Carolina--60%
Illinois--55%

I agree that Ohio and Missouri are the ones that will be the closest. I think Missouri goes to Bernie 53-47 & Ohio will be 50-48--I just don't know which one will be at 48%. We lost Michigan basically because the African-American vote wasn't as high as in the South. For example Hillary won 90% in Mississippi of the AA vote and in Michigan around 66%--If we can boost that to 70-75 percent in Ohio then I think Hillary wins. If not, then Bernie wins.

[Treant]

39. Ohio is a tad more centrist

than Michigan, so I'm more confident of Clinton's chances in OH than they turned out to be in MI (and it's not like she did badly in MI!)

Missouri, well, I have no idea.

[yardwork]

19. Welcome to our world, and thank you for the thoughtful analysis.

I'm in NC and I think Hillary will do better here than you predict, but not as well as she's done in many other southern states.

Here's my reasoning - NC has a more limited kind of open primary than MI. Also, we have fewer independents than MI. We have very few unions. There just isn't the grassroots GOTV among independents here that they have in the Great Lakes states.

NC also has strong blue college communities - more than SC - and that will help Sanders.

For the reasons I give above, I fear that Hillary will do worse than you predict in OH and IL. I hope I'm wrong, but I believe that the Great Lakes may turn out to be Bernie country for now. This is because Bernie's economic message resonates with the rust belt libertarian independents there. I'm from OH, my mom is from MI - I know how they think. The danger is that these same folks will Freak Out when they learn more about Bernie's history. They would vote Trump in the GE.

[Recursion]

21. Could well be. So much of this polling is weak

That would not terribly surprise me.

I still think IL and MO are the states to look at.

[BlueMTexpat]

29. I have no problems with you!

I have never seen you post deliberate slurs against any candidate. If Hillary had not run in 2016, I would have been a MOM supporter myself as he was my guv.

While I believe that your predictions may be a tad generous to Sanders overall in light of the strong polling for Hillary where polls exist, they are as good guesstimates as any and you have given good reasons for them.

But even your final results highlight the bottom line problem for Sanders. Already Clinton has 200+ delegates and the results you predict will only increase that margin.

In later primaries - unless there is a sea change somewhere - Bernie will likely win in the Pacific Northwest (I include MT in that, btw), but Hillary will still pick up delegates and most likely meet, possibly even exceed, her target goals per 538 projections. Despite Tulsi Gabbard's defection to Bernie, I believe that Hillary will win in HI because she is closely tied to Prez O and Prez O is very popular in his birth state. I understand that Gabbard is not nearly as popular.

Per the 538 target goals, Hillary can afford losses in WI, WY and UT. She can even afford not to meet her TGs there. Bernie cannot. In EVERY state he wins, he MUST also achieve the TG #s in delegates. If not, he falls further and further behind - even with the wins. If he does not exceed those TGs, it's literally all over. Hillary will do very well in most of the remaining states; all she has to do is to meet the 538 TGs. Bernie MUST win.

March 15th will be pretty telling. If Hillary has an outstanding day and exceeds the numbers that you predict for her, then the rest of the primary season will be mostly about her winning margin. If she merely meets her TGs, it's much the same. Only if she loses everywhere - and even then by large margins - would there be any possibility for Bernie's campaign to catch up in pledged delegates.

While that could still happen, it is highly unlikely. But it doesn't mean that any of us who support HRC can rest on our laurels, like those MI voters who thought Hillary would win and so voted in the GOPer primary instead. Every vote counts. And our candidate will not take any one for granted.

[rock]

32. Very fair analysis

I'm going to assume that Hillary will take OH because we don't seem to have as large a proportion of undeclared-independents like we did in MI (or so the pollsters say). Thanks for the hard work!

[Recursion]

33. That's a fair point

I think we'll all be looking out on this about this coming up...

[Lucinda]

34. I'm sorry you are catching flack from the vocal majority.

And MOM is still getting votes! I've been watching his numbers at every primary. Hope we see more of him nationally, he seems like a pretty good guy.

I think Michigan was a one-off due to the 08 mess with Obama and Edwards not on the ballot. So I expect the polls will be back on track for the remaining states. It will be interesting to see how your numbers look once we have results!

[fleabiscuit]

35. I'm sticking with 538. eom

[LuvLoogie]

36. Are the 538 targets campaign generated, or is that 548's analysis?

The reason I ask is because Hillary hit her target in Michigan in an open primary clouded with 20 plus years of anti-Hillary propaganda. People in GD: P keep saying her internals must be bad. But I think that Hillary's campaign is very aware of the dynamics in this race and may be using her position "on the ropes" to their advantage.

[Treant]

40. 538 generates

their own targets (Cook did the same thing, but I'm now using 538's).

I assume the campaigns have slightly differing targets for each state depending on how they think they'll do.

I also assume you're right, Clinton's campaign is certainly going to use the "Sanders is competitive" angle to their advantage to drive voter turnout on Super Tuesday II. We've heard very little argument coming from the Clinton campaign and there's certainly plenty of things they could talk about.

[Chichiri]

38. I think the margins will be wider in NC and MO.

But I think your win calls are spot on.

[DavidDvorkin]

41. Welcome, from another O'Malley supporter.

[dcbuckeye]

42. Remember this about ohio

the largest and most democratic and most African American county in Ohio is Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and this county is usually the last to report its results, so if it is late tuesday and Hillary is behind, this is where the race could turn in Hillary's favor. Could get pretty exciting if she overtakes him late in the evening.