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Mon Mar 14, 2016, 08:32 PM

Why Hillary Clinton’s delegate lead over Bernie Sanders is bigger than it looks

The Clinton lead over Sanders in 2016 is actually far greater than the Obama lead over Clinton in 2008 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/14/why-hillary-clintons-delegate-lead-over-bernie-sanders-is-bigger-than-it-looks/

But here's the thing: Whether or not Clinton wins Ohio doesn't really matter.

It's important to remember that the Democrats, unlike the Republicans, don't allocate delegates on a winner-take-all basis. When Donald Trump won South Carolina with a plurality of the vote, he got all of the state's 50 delegates, a total that right now constitutes more than half of his lead. There are no states like that on the Democratic side. There are some variations in how the states divvy up their delegates, but they're proportionally distributed from now until the primary is over.

Which is why the 2008 daily delegate totals looked like this.

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

As Clinton tried to play catch-up with Barack Obama, he would get some delegates every time she did. The only times she made big gains against him was in states she won by a wide margin. But the proportional delegate system kept Obama steadily out of reach.

It's worth comparing Obama's 2008 lead in the delegates to Clinton's. Clinton, by virtue of huge margins of victory in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana, has a much bigger lead than Obama did at this point -- or than Obama did at any point. (The data below excludes superdelegates.)
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

Even without super delegates, Clinton has a far greater lead over Sanders compared to the lead that President Obama had over Clinton in 2008
This is the DU member formerly known as Gothmog.

9 replies, 1456 views

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Arrow 9 replies Author Time Post
Reply Why Hillary Clinton’s delegate lead over Bernie Sanders is bigger than it looks (Original post)
Gothmog Mar 2016 OP
Firebrand Gary Mar 2016 #1
BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #2
UrbScotty Mar 2016 #3
MADem Mar 2016 #4
Cha Mar 2016 #5
enid602 Mar 2016 #6
Thinkingabout Mar 2016 #7
SunSeeker Mar 2016 #8
George II Mar 2016 #9

Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 08:33 PM

1. K&R

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 08:35 PM

2. Thanks for the information,

Gothmog AND the graphics! K & R!

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 08:36 PM

3. That lead will almost certainly grow tomorrow!

Even if the other states are close (or Bernie wins), Florida and North Carolina will likely help her add to her lead.

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 08:37 PM

4. Every contest makes it more and more difficult for her opponent to overcome the deficit.

I am hoping for a good showing tomorrow.

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 09:09 PM

5. Yeah, I know it's bigger! Thank you, Gothmog!

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 09:33 PM

6. 2008

It's funny. Just weeks ago the Sanders supporters were saying constantly that this contest was just like 2008. Not so much anymote

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Response to enid602 (Reply #6)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:05 PM

7. Or the super delegate was going to change their minds and vote for Sanders, don't think

he will be able to pick up enough super delegates to swing the convention for Sanders.

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:45 PM

8. I love your posts, Gothmog.

Classy, informative, spot on.

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 08:36 AM

9. What you are saying is that 2016 is most definitely NOT "just like 2008"! Good job.

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