Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:20 AM

Nate Silver on Math

NATE SILVER 12:03 AM

Sanders’s Tough Math ~There are 131 pledged delegates at stake tonight for Democrats. It’s going to be hard for Sanders to win a majority of those given that Arizona has most of the delegates and Clinton is winning big there, but it’s not impossible if he crushes it in Utah and Idaho. So let’s say he almost does it. Clinton gets 66 delegates on the night and Sanders gets 65.

That would get Sanders up to 920 pledged delegates, while Clinton would have 1,242, with 1,889 pledged delegates still outstanding. Skipping a little bit of math, but Sanders would need 59 percent of the remaining total to tie Clinton in pledged delegates. That’s really difficult to do; it would be equivalent to beating Clinton by 18 percentage points the rest of the way out. Merely breaking even in delegates isn’t nowhere near enough for Sanders at this point.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

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19 replies	Author	Time	Post
Nate Silver on Math (Original post)	Her Sister	Mar 2016	OP
We can make informed predictions	Her Sister	Mar 2016	#1
No answers yet to this question posted in the Bernie group	Kaleva	Mar 2016	#3
0 replies, 119 views	NurseJackie	Mar 2016	#7
One view was mine	Treant	Mar 2016	#8
I just kicked it back to the top.	Kaleva	Mar 2016	#9
LOL	SunSeeker	Mar 2016	#10
Kaleva will probably be banned for that! :-P	NurseJackie	Mar 2016	#11
Yes I have and the OP has been deleted.	Kaleva	Mar 2016	#13
Bernbabe shouldn't have deleted the post. At worst the only thing they could ...	NurseJackie	Mar 2016	#14
I'm banned member #306 and he's #307	Kaleva	Mar 2016	#15
I got blocked from the Sanders group yesterday after only one reply.	LiberalFighter	Mar 2016	#19
It's all about the math	liberal N proud	Mar 2016	#2
K&R!	stonecutter357	Mar 2016	#4
Then there is this, while still awaiting last	BlueMTexpat	Mar 2016	#5
I expect the majority of the super delegates to go to Hillary and if any are going to change it will	Thinkingabout	Mar 2016	#6
"Merely breaking even in delegates isn’t nowhere near enough for Sanders at this point."	Tarheel_Dem	Mar 2016	#12
April 19 and 26 are going to be dark days for him.	Dawson Leery	Mar 2016	#16
Fingers & toes crossed.	Tarheel_Dem	Mar 2016	#18
Better than Nate Silver on meth.	Codeine	Mar 2016	#17

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:22 AM

Her Sister (6,444 posts)

1. We can make informed predictions

We can make informed predictions.

We know that Clinton does best in larger, more diverse states. We know that Sanders does best in smaller, less diverse states. That's a pattern, and I see no reason to believe that pattern will get flipped upside down. Given that and Clinton's 300+ delegate lead, it's virtually impossible for Sanders to win the nomination.

Request after request has been made for someone to use one of the delegate calculators to demonstrate a realistic path to 2026 for Sanders. As far as I know, those requests have never been answered. There's a reason for that.

Plagiarizing (again) this comment from Garrett78 (LOL!!) http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511547639#post31

Thought t'was perfect and succinct!

Nate Silver on Math

1. We can make informed predictions

3. No answers yet to this question posted in the Bernie group

7. 0 replies, 119 views

8. One view was mine

9. I just kicked it back to the top.

10. LOL

11. Kaleva will probably be banned for that! :-P

13. Yes I have and the OP has been deleted.

14. Bernbabe shouldn't have deleted the post. At worst the only thing they could ...

15. I'm banned member #306 and he's #307

19. I got blocked from the Sanders group yesterday after only one reply.

2. It's all about the math

4. K&R!

5. Then there is this, while still awaiting last

6. I expect the majority of the super delegates to go to Hillary and if any are going to change it will

12. "Merely breaking even in delegates isn’t nowhere near enough for Sanders at this point."

16. April 19 and 26 are going to be dark days for him.

18. Fingers & toes crossed.

17. Better than Nate Silver on meth.