The trouble with Bernie Sanders' path to victory

[Iamaartist]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-trouble-with-bernie-sanders-path-to-victory/|



Bernie Sanders' campaign has its way, Republicans might not be the only ones facing a contested convention this summer.

Sanders' top strategist, Tad Devine, predicted Monday that neither candidate will reach the 2,383 delegates necessary to win the Democratic nomination outright. "It is clear now that neither Hillary Clinton nor Bernie Sanders is going to go to the convention with a majority of pledged delegates," he said.

Coming off a trio of victories in caucus states last Saturday--Hawaii, Alaska and Washington--Sanders' team argued that he now has the momentum going into toward the rest of the calendar.

But while the math for Sanders isn't impossible, it's certainly not easy. According to CBS News estimates, Sanders would need to win two-thirds of the remaining pledged delegates and superdelegates in order to clinch the nomination -- whereas Clinton needs to win just a third of the remaining delegates in order to win the nomination outright.

[Iamaartist]

1. Looks like April is the end for him.....

We could hope.........

[MADem]

2. If he wants to stay in until the end, I have no objection and I don't think anyone else should,

either.

It will be expensive for him, and fundraising might get more problematic when the handwriting is on the wall, but if he wants to keep giving that speech, he should do what he wants.

I just wish the tone of discussion would get a bit more civil. The more he falls behind, the angrier his supporters become. It's the opposite of a "future" that anyone can "believe in." It's more like "Lash out and attack!"

I can't wait until it's over...but I can wait, if you know what I mean. Let him go for as long as he needs to. He'll have a more difficult time in the closed primaries where just Democrats select the Democratic standard bearer.

[BlueMTexpat]

4. I have no problem with Bernie's

staying in as long as he wants.

I do have a problem with some of his supporters continuing to use RW GOPer TPs against Hillary, just as they do here on DU.

[MADem]

5. I can agree with that. I think the ugliness and the right wing memes need to cease. nt

[spooky3]

12. Agree with both of you. And, the personal attacks on supporters or undecideds who politely and

rationally give factual info or reasonable explanations of their opinions should stop too. I've seen this all over DU for months. Even if they are simply disrespectful people, it doesn't motivate Clinton supporters to change primary votes. Ad, they ought to be considering how this would play out if Sanders actually wins the nomination, as many supporters are confident that he will. They will need to motivate Clinton supporters to join with them after the nomination to fight the GOP scourge--and then to vote in the fall. Personal attacks on supporters do the opposite. And if as some of them keep saying that Clinton is Republican lite, owned by Wall Street, etc. (which clearly she is not), then how can they count on some of these voters to prefer Sanders to whoever is the Repub nominee, without significant overtures and reconciliation? Not only is it rude--it makes no sense.

Their behavior can be explained only as childish and emotionally-driven at best.

[BlueMTexpat]

3. That pesky math and

certainly closed primaries where Democrats will vote for their preferred Democratic candidate, i.e., the one who has been an actual Democrat since at least 1972.

You can't blame Tad for liking his salary, however.

[spooky3]

13. Tad reminds me of the Rev. Al Bundy episode of MWC--as Al and Jefferson talk about bilking

contributors.

[CalvinballPro]

6. I'm lazy but would love to see some numbers crunched on how fast Clinton can get 1/3.

And maybe what her minimum vote margins in the remaining states would need to be.

[stopbush]

7. After seeing Bernie's "math" on how he was going to pay for all his programs

I'm not surprised he has his own special math to chart a path to the nomination.

[Lucinda]

10. LOL

[BlueMTexpat]

16. Good point! eom

[Chichiri]

8. Love the left-handed Paul in your signature.

We really need more left-handed guitarists (and bassists) in the spotlight.

[KitSileya]

9. For some reason it isn't good enough for them if Hillary wins over half the pledged delegates.

The keep insisting she must win 2383 pledged delegates, which is half of all the delegates, both pledged and super. But they keep presenting the number 2383 as if it is half of only the pledged delegates. It is in your excerpt:

Sanders' top strategist, Tad Devine, predicted Monday that neither candidate will reach the 2,383 delegates necessary to win the Democratic nomination outright. "It is clear now that neither Hillary Clinton nor Bernie Sanders is going to go to the convention with a majority of pledged delegates," he said.

That's not a problem with math, that's a problem with truth.

[LannyDeVaney]

11. The longer this goes on, the larger the questions become about Sander's integrity ...

[spooky3]

14. Good catch!

[sweetloukillbot]

15. They play fast and loose with the majority #s

Sanders needs the 20XX number (half pledged) then the Supers will fall in line for the other 300, but Hillary needs 2383.
And they'll use the full pledged and super number to calculate Sanders path to victory, while using the pledged only to calculate Clinton's...

[GvilleDem]

17. It doesn't matter where the bar is set

There is no path for a Bernie nomination.
The math is impossible. Maybe not literally, but considering who the people behind those numbers are, it is impossible.
All the news sites keep talking about momentum like anyone actually bases their vote on the results of the previous state. They keep talking like Hillary supporters are going to see the light and change their votes en masse. They keep insisting that HRC fans are simply settling.

It's not going to happen.
The whole path is based on a foundation of lies.
The polls will be right within their margin's of error. Hillary will storm the Northeast, and take cali for the sweet sweet finish, and none of Bernie's canned speeches are going to change any of it.

[DemonGoddess]

18. this is all about the horse race

no horse race, no "news"