NYTimes TheUpshot: Clinton Favored the Rest of the Way

[CalvinballPro]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/29/upshot/bernie-sanders-faces-tougher-terrain-after-a-big-week.html?_r=0

Hillary Clinton could win about 54 percent of the remaining delegates, according to estimates for coming primaries based on demographic trends. She needs 44 percent to win a majority of pledged delegates.

.....

It might not look too daunting after he just won at least 70 percent of the vote in five states. But the remaining states aren’t especially welcoming for him. Mrs. Clinton’s delegate advantage seems likelier to grow over the rest of the contests than to shrink. The remaining states force Mr. Sanders to confront his big weaknesses: affluence, diversity, establishment-friendly areas and closed primary contests.

.....

There are a lot of closed contests left, including New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, New Mexico, Delaware, Kentucky and Oregon. Mr. Sanders has not yet won a closed primary.

.....

The model picks up on Mrs. Clinton’s strength among nonwhite voters in a few ways, but the bottom line is that she has won every primary where white voters represent a below-average share of the electorate. She has won all but one county where nonwhite voters represented a majority of eligible voters in a primary — as is now the case in California as a whole.

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It's funny, I had commented earlier that I was looking for just this kind of analysis, maybe an hour or so before I found this. And while I previously thought that complacency might be the biggest remaining threat to Clinton's nomination, that recent poll about us Clinton supporters being more energized than Sanders supporters has really put some fire back in the furnace.

Just a few more weeks, everyone. Just a few more weeks of the slings and arrows from the Sanders supporters. Just a few more weeks until we don't have to hear from Jeff Weaver or Tad Devine for a long while. Just a few more weeks until we make history by nominating Hillary Clinton as the first woman to represent the Democratic Party in a presidential election!

Hang in there!

[stopbush]

1. It won't be long now.

[SaschaHM]

2. I'll be honest.

Indiana scares me a bit. I know it's close, but I'd be more comfortable if Clinton takes is by a couple of percentage points in May.

[lewebley3]

3. I don't trust the times; but I think Hillary's got this!

[Treant]

5. It's 83 delegates.

Coming off her highly probable strong wins in PA, NY, and MD, a loss won't really matter.

[SaschaHM]

6. I think it's just finishline jitters.

Hillary Clinton is well on her way to becoming the first female major party presidential nominee and given the clown car wreck on the other side, could be the first female president of the U.S. There's always going to be (unfounded) fears in my mind that a loss here or there could derail that.

[Treant]

7. Oh, I understand

completely! But it'd take more than a loss here or there to erode the rest of her 230 delegate lead.

I'd be pretty content with the way things are going, at least through April 19th. If New York doesn't go well...then worry! But not until then.

[DemonGoddess]

9. I'm finding no recent polling data at all for Indiana, and I LIVE here

I think Indiana is closer than Sanders would like. There are also an awful lot of disgusted Repubs that I know who not only don't like their choice of candidates, they don't like HIM either. You know why? One word. Socialist. That's the buzz I'm hearing, at least where people are talking about it.

[lunamagica]

4. K&R. Go Hillary!

[Cha]

8. Thank you for this, Calvin~

[Hobo]

10. it is a shame that this is the only place you can post this with out getting an alert.....eom

[oasis]

11. Great news. No problem. Steady as she goes.