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Tue Mar 29, 2016, 07:59 PM

I realized why Bernie polls higher than Hillary in the GE polls

It's because the Hillary supporters tell the pollstesr that they will vote for Bernie if he's the nominee, but the Bernie supporters don't tell them they will vote for Hillary.

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Reply I realized why Bernie polls higher than Hillary in the GE polls (Original post)
72DejaVu Mar 2016 OP
Dawson Leery Mar 2016 #1
Trenzalore Mar 2016 #2
Gothmog Mar 2016 #3
Basic LA Mar 2016 #4
OKNancy Mar 2016 #5
DemonGoddess Mar 2016 #6
Cha Mar 2016 #7
Tarheel_Dem Mar 2016 #8
book_worm Mar 2016 #9
SharonClark Mar 2016 #10

Response to 72DejaVu (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:09 PM

1. +1,000,000

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Response to 72DejaVu (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:13 PM

2. That and Bernie had been subject to minimal scrutiny

Hillary has treated him like a mouthy little brother and really has yet to actually hit him.

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Response to 72DejaVu (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:16 PM

3. The lack of vetting of Sanders is also a reason why these polls are worthless

Sanders has not been fully vetted yet and so these polls are worthless. Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Sanders and his supporters boast of polls showing him, on average, matching up slightly better against Trump than Clinton does. But those matchups are misleading: Opponents have been attacking and defining Clinton for a quarter- century, but nobody has really gone to work yet on demonizing Sanders.

Watching Sanders at Monday night’s Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump — or another Republican nominee — would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.


The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the “socialist” label and requested that Sanders define it “so that it doesn’t concern the rest of us citizens.”

Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who don’t want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: “Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top — that’s my definition of democratic socialism.”

But that’s not how Republicans will define socialism — and they’ll have the dictionary on their side. They’ll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. They’ll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldn’t be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists don’t win national elections in the United States .

Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases — “one of the biggest tax hikes in history,” as moderator Chris Cuomo put it — to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that “hypothetically, you’re going to pay $5,000 more in taxes,” and declared, “W e will raise taxes, yes we will.” He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that “it’s demagogic to say, oh, you’re paying more in taxes.

Well, yes — and Trump is a demagogue.

Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government “bigger than ever,” Sanders didn’t quarrel, saying, “P eople want to criticize me, okay,” and “F ine, if that’s the criticism, I accept it.”

Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.

Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election where Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.

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Response to 72DejaVu (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:15 PM

4. Republicans won't just swiftboat him.

They'll battleship him!

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Response to 72DejaVu (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:22 PM

5. The Republicans would put him praising Fidel on a 24/7 loop

among other things...

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Response to 72DejaVu (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:31 PM

6. or the other thing (one of many things)

I could see the RW smear machine doing, is taking his Russian honeymoon, for example, and twisting that.

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Response to 72DejaVu (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 10:41 PM

7. BS hasn't been properply vetted.. Hillary has.. anyway it's moot he's not going to be the nom

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Response to 72DejaVu (Original post)

Wed Mar 30, 2016, 03:54 AM

8. Yup. Dukakis polled well (+17 pts.) after the '88 convention, and lost the election by 8.

You guessed it. Another Tad Devine debacle. They went to work on Dukakis after he accepted the nomination, and the rest is history.

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Response to 72DejaVu (Original post)

Wed Mar 30, 2016, 07:26 PM

9. Very true.

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Response to 72DejaVu (Original post)

Wed Mar 30, 2016, 07:54 PM

10. GE polls are meaningful only if the election is held today

a republican guy on MSNBC tonight said it - makes sense to me.

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