Wisconsin exit polls--looking like a double-digit loss that will be called early

[geek tragedy]

Last edited Tue Apr 5, 2016, 07:01 PM - Edit history (2)

Honesty Clinton has had problems with views of her honesty and which are apparent today in Wisconsin. Just six in 10 Wisconsin Democratic voters say she’s honest and trustworthy, vs. about nine in 10 who say so about Sanders. That’s among Sanders’ highest honesty ratings in any primary to date, even approaching his rating in his home state of Vermont


Fewer than six in 10 voters say Clinton’s views on the issues are about right, vs. nearly two-thirds who say so of Sanders. That’s a flip of the average of previous primaries, where Clinton’s averaged 64 percent, Sanders 55 percent.

...

Qualities Roughly six in 10 voters today say honesty or empathy are most important to their vote; such voters have been more likely to support Sanders (especially honesty voters) in races to date.

Fewer, four in four in 10, call electability or experience most important, voters among whom Clinton’s dominated. Combined, honesty/empathy voters have outnumbered experience/electability voters on average in 2016, with an even larger than usual margin in preliminary exit poll results today.

Every preliminary metric indicates a wipeout--lots of very liberal voters, predominantly white turnout, etc.

My advice is stay off DU tonight, lots of crowing will happen over a modest 10-12 delegate pick up by Senator Sanders and how he has huge momentum and will win New York, blah blah blah.

Onto New York.

Edited to add: right link!

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democratic-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38163893

[CalvinballPro]

1. Polls don't close for another 2.5 hours, and all of that is based on early-day exit polls.

Politico warns at the top that they're not entirely accurate. Plus, aren't exit polls completely voluntary?

[geek tragedy]

3. all polls are.

But some of those numbers are pretty yikes-y.

90% thinking a candidate is honest is a massive number, especially after Clinton had gone after him on honesty.

I still think my 55-45 call is spot on.

This is a state tailor made for Sanders.

[Rose Siding]

2. 54% want President Obama's policies to continue -only 31% want more liberal

Those are Hillary votes. I don't see your excerpt at the link. It's different. And 43% self describe as "somewhat liberal"

More than half of the voters participating in Wisconsin's open Democratic primary between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders on Tuesday said they would prefer the next president to continue the policies of President Barack Obama, according to the results of preliminary exit polls released hours ahead of the polls closing.
While 54 percent said they would like the next president to continue in the way of Obama, nearly one-third (31 percent) said they would like to see more liberal policies.
Those findings are reflected in the breakdown of ideology, with 25 percent describing themselves as very liberal, 43 percent as somewhat liberal, 27 percent moderate and just 5 percent conservative.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/wisconsin-exit-polls-obama-221598#ixzz44zhXAsPR
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

[geek tragedy]

12. That's similar to the Michigan number I think.

Black vote is low, so is youth vote (Snott Walker must be proud)

[Walk away]

4. I doubt if I'll be back here until a few days before the NYS primary...

I can chat with the Hillary Group in other places and I'll be working to GOTV in the real world.

I never spend time here when the FOB are pumped up.

[Buzz Clik]

7. The "real world". What is this magical place of which you speak?

[Walk away]

48. That would be my telephone while I make phone calls for Hillary!

[GusBob]

5. Agree that those poll results look bad but.....

Doesn't take in other factors, such as early voters by mail

Also other exit polls have different takes , MSNBC for example

Cheese heads are weird in polling. Walker had huge disapproval ratings but won the recall election

The key question in previous exit polls has been "carry on Obamas policies" if that number is over 55 percent is good for HRC

She always gets hit on the honest trustworthy thing and has won states with poor exit numbers there

No way a double digit win. Maybe 5 points

[Buzz Clik]

6. If that is true, then the pollsters have yet to figure out open primaries.

Not one has Sanders up by more than 8 points.

We'll see...

[vdogg]

8. 27% call themselves moderates

Vs 25% liberal. I think this will be a close one. She'll probably still lose but I'm thinking closer to single digits. That poor interview Bernie had may have a late effect too. If it is double digits, it'll prob be 55-45.

[geek tragedy]

14. that Bernie interview will plague him in NY for sure, too late to have an effect in WI nt

[CajunBlazer]

23. I doubt it will be as bad as 55-45, but that will not be enough in Wisconsin

Sanders needs to win at least 57 - 43 just to not fall behind the over 13% rate he needs to win by in each of the remaining 22 nomination contests.

The truth of the matter the polls show that he has a decent chance to win in only Wisconsin and West Virginia and while it has no polls yet perhaps Wyoming. He dang sure isn't going to win by 13 at least 13% in New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland (all big delegate states) so he has to do exceedingly well in states like Wisconsin to make up for falling behind the pace in later states.

My prediction is that there is no way he will win by more than 13% (like 57 - 43) in Wisconsin and even if he does it won't matter in two weeks. I betting that it will be pretty close in the cheese head state.

[ismnotwasm]

9. Well it is what it is

I was hoping for a closer run, but it still doesn't matter. I just want it to be over as quickly as possible.

[geek tragedy]

15. Mid-Atlantic region will be very good for us nt

[NuclearDem]

10. Different organizations have different exit polls going.

Some are more favorable to Sanders, some are more favorable to Clinton.

We'll just have to wait and see.

[Dawson Leery]

11. I will be out of here.

Skinner clearly is allowing the Bernie jackals to run this board. The same with Kos.
Neither should expect a penny from me.

[geek tragedy]

13. weird number from MSNBC--79% prefer establishment to outsider?

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/wisconsin-primary-takes-2016-spotlight-both-parties-n550966

That can't be right. That would be a Clinton blowout.

[KewlKat]

17. Interesting

clearly doesn't match the polls for who will win?

[Kber]

18. All primary voters or just Dems?

Could indicate anti trump sentiment

[geek tragedy]

20. Dems. Republicans split 50/50 nt

[Satch59]

24. That is an interesting number...

Do voters consider Bernie as experienced or outsider? I would think Hillary is thought of as the experienced one...and the 54% that want to continue Obama's policies...that seems to point to Hillary too? Could be an interesting night...also is 16% under 30 a big turnout or not?

[geek tragedy]

25. Bernie has been there for a quarter-century. nt

[Satch59]

32. Yes but an independent and dem socialist...

Would think that is more "outsider" status? Also considering Sanders and Trump are often spoken of as similar in their taking on the establishment image?

Will be surprised if Hillary pulls a win but I still think close, within 5pts...

[CajunBlazer]

16. I don't understand how you are drawing your conclusions of a 12% beat down

First of all I accessed your link and I am evidently not seeing were you are finding the sections which you copied. Perhaps I don't have the permissions on Politico that you have.

However, even with those excerpts you need to understand those attributes mentioned are not the only the only ones important to voters. For instance, you might think that someone perfectly honest and his views align with yours, but if you think he will be totally ineffective in job, you are not going to vote for him.

In addition everyone needs to remember that Bernie needs to win each of he remaining 22 nomination contests by over 13 percentage points just to draw even with Hillary in the pledged delegate count. (Note: I am not including the super delegates.) If Sanders doesn't win Wisconsin, one of the few contest that he is given a real chance to win, by more than 13% (like 57% to 43%) than stick a fork in him because he is done. He sure isn't going to win big delegate states of New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland by 13%

[geek tragedy]

19. put the wrong link in--corrected.

I'm not in a panic-this race will be over in 21 days.

just noting that the numbers are not great.

[CajunBlazer]

31. I still don't understand how you are drawing your conclusions base on what I am reading.

[geek tragedy]

37. 2/3 think Sanders has the right policies and 90% think he's telling the truth.

2/3 think Sanders's policies are realistic (!!!!)

only 40% citing experience or electability

Sanders 56% - 41% more inspiring.

Sanders getting equal numbers as commander in chief (!)

These are scary numbers. The more I look at them, the more I wonder if he crossed 60%.

[KewlKat]

41. Could that many people

have had lobotomies?

[geek tragedy]

42. Wisconsin Democrats are really, really liberal and idealistic.

This is Feingold country.

[KewlKat]

43. Well, I lived in WI for nearly 10 yrs

and never met another democrat.....I was surrounded by rethugs. I finally left. I didn't belong there. They made me crazy. I was near Lacrosse

[CajunBlazer]

45. I find that in the South where we are overrun by rethugs...

Democratic voters tend to be more moderate than in bright blue states - I never thought of Wisconsin as a bright blue state. I still don't believe 55% to 45%

[geek tragedy]

51. Dane county is pretty much Berkeley with cheese

city of Madison--state capitol--is practically all hippies and college kids

that's where Sanders is gonna run up the score

[dlwickham]

79. maybe it's the cold weather up there

affecting people's brains

[Rose Siding]

21. EXIT POLL: More Wisc. Dem primary voters think Clinton can beat Trump in Nov. than Sanders.

Here's another but this split should be wider:



https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/717484132020928513

[geek tragedy]

22. that's just about every state though, isn't it?

most of them voted on other characteristics--honesty and caring about people were the two biggest ones. only about 10% voted on likelihood of winning or experience.

[Rose Siding]

26. Seems like that might rate more highly later in primary

I don't know, but it would seem logical

[FloridaBlues]

28. take exit polling with a big grain of salt

I'm curious about the areas outside of the cites I think she can pull in some nice numbers.
I can't help but feel this will be close one. Glad there's a good turn, as I'm sure the republicans and indiesare turning out for the republicans

[MattP]

27. Exit polls don't talk to early voters

[geek tragedy]

29. that's a very good point. About 10% early/absentee voters, right? nt

[cosmicone]

30. Exit polls don't have early voting info.

There was a record early voting as well and early voters tend to be Clinton voters -- more organized, older, democrats etc.

[KewlKat]

33. Would someone please start a WI Primary Thread?

I'm afraid if I start one it gets seen by everyone. Not sure how groups work.

[SaschaHM]

34. Great analysis, but if...

Bernie supporters, his campaign, and even the candidate can be in such denial about the math as it stands currently and in regards to the upcoming NE states, I can still hold out hope that it could be super close and under 6%.

Thankfully, regardless of what happens, Trump, Ted Cruz, and #nevertrump will dominate the news coverage unless something drastic happens tonight on the democratic side.

[KewlKat]

35. This site already shows Hill with 5 delegates

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

just sayin..........

[KewlKat]

36. Is Martin O'Mally still on the WI ballot?

[geek tragedy]

38. no idea--he probably doesn't know either nt

[KewlKat]

39. wisconsinvote.org shows

him along with BS and Hillary.

http://wisconsinvote.org/election-results

wonder how many will vote for him?

[geek tragedy]

40. does he have family there? nt

[KewlKat]

44. Dem Exit Poll

73% over 45.......where is the youth for BS.

[geek tragedy]

46. 63% over 45, 37% under 45

16-21-38-25 over the four major age groups

[CajunBlazer]

47. Bad bummer for Bernie

[NastyRiffraff]

49. As long as it's close

I'll be fine with a Sanders win. I'd prefer Hillary of course, but the main thing is that Sanders underperforms.

[geek tragedy]

50. If it's single digits, meh.

If it starts to get towards 20 points, it'll feel bad even if it's not game-changing

[fleabiscuit]

59. Forgive me but LOL

I feel the same way.

[metroins]

52. Exit polls look like trash right now.

35% of Republican voters earn 100k+ a year?

Yea ok.

I'm looking at a lot of these numbers and they don't make sense. I'm not saying Hillary or Sanders is going to win, I'm just saying I don't trust any of these current exit polls.

[geek tragedy]

53. I know, I wrote an OP talking about how exit polls are unreliable so maybe physician heal myself nt

[metroins]

54. I agree with you that we might want to stay out of GDP

tonight.

It's devolving pretty quickly.

[geek tragedy]

55. probably a good idea to start loading up the Ignore list.

I've added anyone who recommends or posts:

1) rightwing articles trashing Clinton
2) peddling looney-tunes conspiracy theories
3) anyone else so stupid it almost makes my head explode

[metroins]

56. I should follow your lead

Some of them have almost gotten me into hide territory, but I've deleted my post afterwards.

There's a few people in GDP just to stir stuff up. I may need to use ignore more often.

[geek tragedy]

57. there are about 10 who aren't on my list nt

[fleabiscuit]

63. What does that list cost? Could save me lots of time.

[OilemFirchen]

64. Would those be the atypical ones or the egregious ones?

I'm always confused about that.

[geek tragedy]

66. the ten who aren't batshit crazy or possible wingnut impostors nt

[OilemFirchen]

67. I'm guessing, then...

not this one.

[geek tragedy]

68. on my iggy list. double-checked to make sure. :) nt

[GusBob]

58. Because of the way they proportion delegates in Wisc

By congressional districts it will be very hard for BS to win 10-12 delegates

[metroins]

60. I just watched John King on CNN

If BS won all the remaining states...he still wouldn't win the nomination.

It was kind of funny to watch.

I feel so bad about BS peddling the BS that he can win; I feel bad for his followers. It'd be one thing if he was honest and kept up the "political movement" donation stuff, but he's actively soliciting donations for a failed campaign.

That is so disingenuous to me.

[geek tragedy]

61. maybe. what did Obama net there in 2008? Wasn't it like 10 delegates

from a 57-40 whupping?

[George II]

62. MSNBC has different exit polls, and from them it looks like it will be very close. We'll know...

..... in about an hour or two.

[geek tragedy]

65. I thought they all used the same exit polls?

[book_worm]

69. Yet by a 54-31 margin they want Obama's policies continued rather than more liberal policies

that is usually a good sign for HRC, but not sure it will be tonight. Though it might be closer than we think.

[book_worm]

70. 77% say HRC policies "realistic" while only 64% say so of Bernie's

This Week ‏@ThisWeekABC 3m3 minutes ago
77% of Wisconsin Democrats find Clinton's policies "realistic"; 64% say so of Sanders'. http://abcn.ws/1RCVe7g

[geek tragedy]

71. I can't believe 64% say his are realistic. I mean, come on! nt

[KewlKat]

72. They are in love with the bern

opposites attract.....

[Rose Siding]

75. Chuck Todd's exit has 63% over 45 yrs old

https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/717475376516169729

[MSMITH33156]

73. I don't think Hillary will win Wisconsin or anything

but here is an example of a problem with Exit Polls.

Fewer than six in 10 voters say Clinton’s views on the issues are about right, vs. nearly two-thirds who say so of Sanders. That’s a flip of the average of previous primaries, where Clinton’s averaged 64 percent, Sanders 55 percent.

6/10 voters = 60%
2/3rds voters = 66%

What is the margin for error in an exit poll? So they are saying there is a "flip" from previous primaries, yet they have a 9% spread in previous primaries and a 6-point spread the other way here...in exit polls, which are very inexact. They've now drawn all sorts of conclusions from these exit polls. Just shows how flawed political analysis depended on exit polls are.

[geek tragedy]

74. Anything under 20% margin is ok with me nt

[book_worm]

76. Bernie has an early lead per networks--but they aren't yet calling WI.

[geek tragedy]

77. Fox News called it for Sanders.

[Kilgore]

78. Fox just called WI for Bernie!!