Venezuela analysts cast doubt on presidential election

[Zorro]

Is the Venezuelan government laying the groundwork to delay or even suspend the Oct. 7 presidential elections due to President Hugo Chávez’s failing health? That’s what some analysts suspect as they evaluate recent structural changes within the administration and statements by Chávez allies.

“Will we or won’t we have elections?” asked María Teresa Romero, a political science professor from Caracas’ Central University, on Friday. “In this political climate anything can happen.”

Despite being in power for 12 years, Chávez is leading most polls as he heads into a tight race to win an additional six-year term. But he’s spent most of this year in Cuba receiving treatment for an undisclosed form of cancer. While the charismatic leader has vowed to return to Venezuela soon and “knockout” his presidential rival Henrique Capriles, doubts still linger about his health.

Speaking at the 7th Annual Latin America Conference hosted by the University of Miami’s Center for Hemispheric Policy, Romero said there are worrying indications that the administration believes the election may be in doubt.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/05/11/2795400/venezuela-analysts-cast-doubt.html#storylink=cpy

[MADem]

1. Has Supreme Court Justice Scalia or Thomas been offering advice down that way?

I wonder what the oddsmakers are taking?

Where there's smoke....

Those worries took shape last month, when local media reported that Chávez ally and the governor of Portuguesa State, Wilmar Castro, said the ruling PSUV party needed to consider an alternative candidate or even suspending the elections all together. The comments were made behind closed doors and Castro and the administration have since denied them.

But it’s obvious the idea has currency in some official circles, said Romero, who’s an adviser to the opposition.

“He couldn’t take back what he said,” she said.

Also fueling the election doubts, Chávez recently staffed the Council of State. Led by Vice President Elias Jaua and comprised of military, government and civilian allies, the government insists the body is merely an executive advisory board. The body was created in the 1999 constitution, but the administration’s decision to activate it now — after Chávez returned to Cuba for the sixth time this year for cancer treatment — has generated suspicions. Chávez critics see it as something akin to a junta that might step in to govern if president failed to make it to the elections.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/05/11/2795400/venezuela-analysts-cast-doubt.html#storylink=cpy#storylink=cpy

[joshcryer]

2. This is what the right wingers in Miami want.

They're salivating for a bad outcome. 6 months ago such an outcome was more likely, but as Capriles has built his campaign, such an outcome seems less and less likely. It's still plausible, mind you, but not likely. The Chavista's have no problem coopting and ignoring laws, so if Chavez dies after the deadline to register, they'll just retroactively change the law and install their candidate. If they do delay or stop the elections you can expect a serious outcry from the left opposition.