Macri shaves $3 billion off Argentina's 2015 export data to make 2016 look better by comparison.
The first statistical data release was published today in Argentina since President Mauricio Macri ordered a data blackout shortly after taking office in December. The country's census bureau, INDEC, reported that Argentina registered a merchandise trade deficit of $3 billion in 2015 on total reported exports of almost $57 billion - the first trade deficit for Argentina since 1999.
The announcement, made this afternoon by INDEC Director Jorge Todesca and the agency's new chief statistician, Fernando Cerro (who replaced Graciela Bevacqua after a fallout with the administration over its revision methodology), avoided mentioning that the latest data was not only the first statistical report since Mauricio Macri took office - but that it also included sharp, downward revisions of existing export data.
Data on Argentine exports from 2013 to 2015 were thus revised significantly downward: by $5.7 billion for 2013, $3.6 billion for 2014, and $3.1 billion for the first ten months of 2015 (the last figures released before Macri's data blackout decree). Interestingly, import data for those years were not significantly altered.
The new, revised export numbers, moreover, fall billions short not only of previously released data; but also of some of Argentina's trading partners' own data - particularly those pertaining to the EU and NAFTA.
In the case of NAFTA, the new INDEC data for Argentine exports to its three member countries (the U.S., Canada, and Mexico) falls over $1.3 billion short of the data provided by each of those countries' statistical bureaus. Similarly, exports to ASEAN (an alliance of 10 southeast Asian countries) were revised downward by $300 million, and are now over $700 million less according to the new INDEC estimates than the $5.9 billion reported by ASEAN Stats. Significant discrepancies were also in evidence for data on exports to Argentina's two largest trading partners, Brazil ($200 million less) and China ($400 million less).
The most serious discrepancy, however, is with data from the EU: there, Macri's new data show Argentine exports that are $3.6 billion short of both the INDEC's previous data, and Eurostat's own data (which, until Macri ordered foreign trade data revised, coincided almost exactly). The EU discrepancy accounts for most of the statistical shortfall in the new INDEC export estimates.
At the press conference, Cerro explained that exports were revised downward because of a "lack of documentation" for some exports - but he neglected to mention that the new data is sharply lower than not only the old INDEC data; but the trading partners' own data as well.
The statistical shortfalls notwithstanding, the report did make mention of the effect of the recent collapse in commodity prices worldwide on Argentine exports - which fell 17% in 2015 after a 10% decline in 2014. "The fall in international prices," Cerro explained, "were almost entirely responsible for the decline in exports, since the quantities exported last year declined just 1% from 2014, while prices of exported goods fell 17%."
Director Jorge Todesca, for his part, was unwilling to discuss the discrepancy further. "We've talked a lot about the state of INDEC, and should now start talking about statistics." Todesca likewise refused to address concerns about any issues not related to trade data.
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While the agency's consumer price estimates have been the source of much controversy, most other INDEC data - including foreign trade and GDP - was considered reliable and was in fact quoted by the IMF, the World Bank, and statistical bureaus worldwide. As noted, the newly revised export data is considerably lower than not only the previous data; but also lower than data from Argentina's own trading partners (which matched Argentina's data pretty closely until this downward revision).
In short, Macri is trying to understate 2015 data in order to make 2016 look better by comparison (which will take some doing since this has turned into a recession year thanks to his neocon policies).
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