What's at Stake as Ecuador's President Faces Impeachment
Analysis by Stephan Kueffner | Bloomberg
April 20, 2023 at 4:06 p.m. EDT
Ecuador, one of the few countries in South America with a market-friendly leader, faces weeks of political turmoil as opposition politicians in the National Assembly seek to remove President Guillermo Lasso for the second time since he took office in May 2021. The impeachment case accuses the former banker of failing to stop an alleged graft scheme at the state-run oil shipping business. Lasso rejects the charges and says organized crime gangs are trying to unseat him. Major nationwide protests and an earlier attempt to remove Lasso in mid-2022 sent Ecuador’s bonds into a tailspin, leaving them deep in distressed territory.
1. What is the impeachment procedure in Ecuador?
Lasso, 67, faces possible removal under Article 129 of the constitution, which lays out grounds for impeaching the president. The country’s Constitutional Court, which must approve all Article 129 proceedings, voted to do so in this case. The court rejected a number of corruption charges against him, whittling them down to one concerning a single contract involving state oil tanker company FLOPEC. The impeachment is being reviewed by the congressional oversight committee, which must issue its own recommendation on whether to remove Lasso before the plenary can hold a vote. To remove Lasso, who’s pledged to defend himself before congress, requires a vote of two-thirds of the assembly’s 137 members, or 92 of them. It will likely take at least until May 16 for lawmakers to vote on impeachment. If Lasso is ousted, Vice President Alfredo Borrero, a medical doctor, would become president for the remainder of the presidential term ending in 2025. Impeachment would have no effect on the National Assembly, for which elections are also due in 2025.
2. What is Lasso accused of?
The impeachment charge against Lasso alleges that he was criminally negligent for failing to cancel a FLOPEC contract that impeachment backers say generated losses. In this way, Lasso’s accusers say, he committed embezzlement, the misappropriation of assets placed in one’s trust. The contract in question is a so-called “time charter” oil shipping contract, designed to lower costs so that tankers don’t travel home empty after they make crude oil deliveries.
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This time around, Lasso says that if he faces ouster, he’ll dissolve congress, a power presidents can invoke once in their first three years in office. That would trigger early elections, which Lasso says he would contest. In the meantime, he would govern by decree, with the Constitutional Court taking on the quasi-legislative role of reviewing such orders for their constitutionality. If Lasso manages to fend off impeachment, his administration and congress are likely to remain at loggerheads. Both already have very low approval ratings. The Indigenous organization CONAIE, which led the violent unrest in 2022, is demanding that Lasso step down and has threatened renewed protests if he dissolves congress.
More:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/04/20/what-s-at-stake-as-ecuador-s-president-faces-impeachment/6c2d6674-dfb7-11ed-a78e-9a7c2418b00c_story.html
