Reuters: Inflation data to draw scrutiny after BLS firing, $2.1-trillion TIPS market at risk

[Mike 03]

August 11, 20258:43 AM MST Updated 18 hours ago

Summary

Trump's BLS firing could raise concerns over CPI data integrity on Tuesday

Investors may demand higher TIPS compensation amid data politicization fears

Alternative data sources may gain traction

NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Monthly U.S. inflation data is under increased scrutiny after President Donald Trump removed the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a move that could undermine confidence in the $2.1-trillion market for Treasury debt designed to protect against inflation.

The Consumer Price Index, which will be released on Tuesday, will test investors' trust in the integrity of U.S. economic data after Trump fired the BLS head this month, accusing her of manipulating jobs numbers.

It is unclear who will replace BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. Still, any signs that lead investors to suspect data is being politicized could exacerbate concerns about CPI data collection.

In that case, investors are likely to demand higher compensation to hold TIPS, or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, whose value is linked to the CPI, and raise the federal government's cost of funding itself, analysts said. Rises in TIPS yields could be exacerbated by poorer liquidity compared to the much larger market for nominal Treasuries.

"This isn't just an academic discussion about getting the right numbers - these numbers matter for TIPS," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase. "There's real money on the line here."

More at link:

https://www.reuters.com/business/inflation-data-draw-scrutiny-after-bls-firing-21-trillion-tips-market-risk-2025-08-11/

CPI Data is due out at 8:30 AM EST!

[Walleye]

1. Yeah, a trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon you're talking real money

[gab13by13]

2. Krasnov is nominating E.J. Antoni

to head the BLS. Antoni works at the Heritage Foundation and was an architect of Project 2025.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. short term link: BLS nominee made claim that no 'sensible economist would use' - and that's one of the kinder comments

Short term (24 hours appr) link for free:
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025081224/bls-nominee-made-claim-that-no-sensible-economist-would-use-and-thats-one-of-the-kinder-comments

...
Jason Furman, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama, but also a critic of President Joe Biden's stimulus measures, said Antoni is "completely unqualified" and an "extreme partisan."

Jessica Riedl, a former Heritage Foundation research fellow now at the conservative Manhattan Institute, said his articles and tweets "are probably the most error-filled or any think tank economist right now." Jeremy Horpedahl of the libertarian Cato Institute said he "either massively misunderstands labor market data, or he is willing to lie repeatedly about after being corrected by dozens of economists." Stan Veuger of the American Enterprise Institute, often described as a center-right think tank, called him "utterly unqualified and as partisan as it gets."

Ahead of his nomination, Antoni defended the firing of Erika McEntarfer as BLS commissioner and made the case for reform of the agency.

"That person has overseen problems in the data for three years now," he said on C-Span. "That has been confirmed by the fact the BLS will publish one series of number, and later, publish another series of data that contradicts it," he said.
...

[Lonestarblue]

4. Everyone should know by now not to trust anything coming from this administration.

It’s all built on making Trump look good instead of the ignorant jerk he is.

[hvn_nbr_2]

5. Time for a new term: "Potemkin numbers" nt