Suspense: Will Greece default or not? and who will follow that example?

[dixiegrrrrl]

Greece’s Debt Talks With Creditors Stall

Greece’s creditor banks broke off talks after failing to agree with the government about how much money investors will lose by swapping their bonds, increasing the risk of the euro-area’s first sovereign default.

Proposals by a committee representing financial firms haven’t produced a “constructive consolidated response by all parties,” the Washington-based Institute of International Finance said in a statement yesterday. Talks with Greece and the official sector are “paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach,” the group said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-13/greece-bank-creditor-group-says-debt-talks-on-hold-amid-failure-to-agree.html

Here's an interesting sentence in all this:
"If the talks fail and Greece defaults, “there will be a lot of contagion,”..
( how do you say that in Italian, eh?)

[hamerfan]

1. I dunno.

Greece should fail.
France ain't looking so hot either, lately.

[Demeter]

2. Everyone's Gonna hold their breath until March 31st

Unless some rogue trader decides to spring the trap early.

[Yo_Mama]

3. Greece will default

Italy will eventually have to default as well, although they probably have a few years with the unlimited three-year loans provided by the ECB. As to the rest, it's up in the air.

Greece really has defaulted already, since it cannot repay its debt and everyone has conceded that. The question is whether the private debt-writedowns will be handled as a "voluntary" transaction or an involuntary one. But even if the voluntary 50% private writedown happens, Greece will still default because the object of the plan (which is now more like a 75-80% writedown than a 50% writedown) is only to lower Greek debt to 120% of GDP by 2020. The Greeks can't possibly handle that level of debt.

It looks like Italy is going to 130% of GDP, and they won't recover after that.

[dixiegrrrrl]

4. I believe you are correct.

[Fuddnik]

5. If Italy invades Turkey from the rear,

Will Greece help?

[Po_d Mainiac]

6. Is that an Isle of Man joke? n/t