STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Wednesday, 27 November 2013

[Tansy_Gold]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, 27 November 2013[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 26 November 2013

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 26 November 2013
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Dow Jones 16,072.80 +0.26 (0.00%)
S&P 500 1,802.75 +0.27 (0.01%)
Nasdaq 4,017.75 +23.18 (0.58%)


[font color=green]10 Year 2.71% -0.02 (-0.73%)
30 Year 3.80% -0.01 (-0.26%) [font color=black]


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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.








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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[Demeter]

1. Nasdaq closes above 4,000 for first time in 13 years

http://news.yahoo.com/stock-futures-flat-indexes-near-record-levels-122441077--sector.html

The Nasdaq composite index closed above 4,000 on Tuesday for the first time since 2000, while the Dow and S&P ended barely changed.

Retailers and homebuilders were among the best performing sectors, responding to stronger-than-expected earnings and robust housing market data.

Big-cap technology stocks helped the Nasdaq the most on Friday to finish above 4,000 for the first time since the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 and sent the tech-heavy index hurtling.

Tiffany & Co jumped 7 percent to $88.02 and was the S&P 500's top performer after the luxury retailer's third-quarter sales topped expectations. The S&P retail index advanced 0.9 percent...

[Ghost Dog]

2. France, Spain to discuss euro bank rules at summit

AFP - French President Francois Hollande visits Spain on Wednesday for a bilateral summit seeking a common stance on banking supervision to avoid a repeat of the eurozone debt crisis...

... Hollande is expected to reiterate his call for European Union countries "to make jobs growth and stability the heart of their decisions" at their summit next month.

France and Spain will also discuss economic growth at their summit on Wednesday, with Hollande looking for support to boost investment capacity and pro-growth policies across the eurozone, officials said...

... The summit in Madrid will discuss France's proposal for an "economic government" of the eurozone with a permanent Eurogroup chairman to oversee members' economic policies... Other issues on the agenda of the summit, which involves various ministers from both countries, are migration, defence, anti-terrorism measures and transport.

A new high-speed railway from Paris to Barcelona is due to be opened in mid-December. Officials say it will cut the non-stop train journey time between the two cities to six hours and 20 minutes...

/... http://www.france24.com/en/20131127-france-spain-discuss-euro-bank-rules-summit

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Travel Info: http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2013/mar/15/high-speed-train-tgv-london-paris-barcelona
http://www.seat61.com/Spain.htm#London-Barcelona_by_daytime_train
http://www.railteam.eu/en/
http://www.eurail.com/trains-europe/high-speed-trains/ave



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[Demeter]

3. This is actually MY game plan

I don't have time to do Christmas until the performing season is over...

[xchrom]

4. THAILAND CUTS INTEREST RATE AMID POLITICAL STRIFE

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_THAILAND_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-11-27-04-58-33

BANGKOK (AP) -- Thailand's central bank unexpectedly lowered the cost of credit Wednesday as escalating protests to topple the government add to pressure on the economy.

The Bank of Thailand said it lowered its policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.25 percent, hoping to stimulate lending and investment.

Flag-waving protesters vowing to topple Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra took to the streets of Bangkok for a fourth straight day Wednesday. They are threatening to occupy every government ministry after invading the Ministry of Finance and turning it into an ad-hoc protest headquarters.

The central bank said in a statement that the "ongoing political situation" could compound existing weaknesses in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy. Business confidence is fragile and government plans for $69.5 billion of spending on high speed rail and other transport infrastructure have been delayed by legal challenges.

[xchrom]

5. GERMAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX PERKS UP

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GERMANY_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-11-27-04-50-53

BERLIN (AP) -- A survey finds that German consumer confidence is on the rise amid expectations that Europe's biggest economy will pick up speed and people's income will increase.

The GfK research institute said Wednesday that its forward-looking confidence indicator rose to 7.4 points for December after stalling at 7.1 in November.

It says Germans' economic expectations picked up for the third month in a row, hitting their highest level in more than two years. The economy grew by 0.3 percent in the third quarter, slower than the previous quarter's 0.7 percent but better than the euro area's overall performance.

GfK says expectations of economic growth also prompted a jump in Germans' income outlook, and their willingness to buy edged up to a seven-year high.

[xchrom]

6. HAPPY CHANUKAH!

[Demeter]

7. Detroit accused of exaggerating $18bn debts in push for bankruptcy

AND IT'S NOT AS IF ALL THAT MONEY WAS DUE YESTERDAY, OR EVEN TOMORROW....THEY'LL JUST SUCK ALL THE ASSETS OUT, THEN KICK THE REST OF THE DEBT DOWN THE ROAD....THE "DEBTS" TO GOLDMAN AND CO SHOULD BE DECLARED NULL AND VOID, IMO. THE FRAUDULENT DERVIATIVES GS SOLD DETROIT SHOULD BE STUFFED DOWN BLANKFEIN'S THROAT---DEMETER.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/20/detroit-accused-exaggerating-18bn-debts?CMP=ema_565



Detroit's debts are a fraction of the $18bn lawyers pushing for bankruptcy say they are, and their costs are "irrelevant, misleading and inflated," according to a report released Wednesday. A Demos thinktank report, issued as a city judge decides whether to allow Detroit to file for the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history, lays the blame for the city's woes at the feet of falling revenues, Wall Street banks and "extreme assumptions" calculated to make its problems worse than they are.

"There is no doubt that the city has suffered from structural decline and that state and city policies have not successfully addressed that decline. But that is not the immediate issue in a municipal insolvency. The issue is that the cash currently available does not cover the current expenses of the city," said Walter Turbeville, the report's author, a former Goldman Sachs investment banker and a leading expert in infrastructure finance and public private partnerships.

Kevyn Orr, the state appointed emergency manager, has argued that the city's pension and healthcare liabilities are a leading cause of the city's woes. City workers and retirees face draconian cuts on the $3.5bn in pension payments, and another $6bn in healthcare benefits they are owed. The average Detroit pensioner gets $19,000 a year. Under a deal now being discussed they would be given 16 cents to the dollar, cutting the average pension to $3,040. The report claims Orr's focus on cutting benefits and other debts are "inappropriate and, in important ways, not rooted in fact." Turberville questions the necessity of those cuts and the assumptions that underpin Orr's foundation for the $18bn total. According to the report:

• The emergency manager includes $5.8bn of debt from the water and sewerage department as a liability of the city, even though the department serves more than 3 million people across southeastern Michigan. Detroit has just 714,000 residents. "This debt is not a liability of the city's general fund; and, even if it were, only a fraction of it would allocable to the city," he writes.

• Orr's assertion that the city's pension funds have a $3.5bn shortfall is an "estimate, very different from the certain liability of a financial debt, based on calculations that use extreme assumptions that depart from most cities' and states' general practice," he writes.

FOR SOME SENSIBLE POLICY SUGGESTIONS, READ ON AT LINK

[Demeter]

8. US police force pay bitcoin ransom in Cryptolocker malware scam GET THIS!

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/nov/21/us-police-force-pay-bitcoin-ransom-in-cryptolocker-malware-scam?CMP=ema_565

Massachusetts police have admitted to paying a bitcoin ransom after being infected by the Cryptolocker ransomware.

The Cryptolocker malware infects a computer, normally via a legitimate-looking email that urges the reader to open an attachment often posing as a voicemail, fax, invoice or details of a suspicious transaction that is being queried.

Once the Windows computer is infected, the malware encrypts the user's hard drive and then begins displaying a countdown timer, while demanding payment for the release of the data of 2 bitcoins – an almost untraceable, peer-to-peer digital online currency – which at current exchange rates equates to about £832 or $1338.

“(The virus) is so complicated and successful that you have to buy these bitcoins, which we had never heard of,” Swansea Police Lt. Gregory Ryan talking to the Herald News. “It was an education for (those who) had to deal with it.”

MORE

[Demeter]

9. ANOTHER GOOD REASON TO AVOID SPAM

...If a computer becomes infected it should immediately be disconnected from any networks and a professional called in to clear the machine. However, the current state of encryption technology means that it is unlikely the encryption can be unscrambled, and therefore the hard drive will likely have to be erased and restored from a backup.

[Demeter]

10. 10 ways to beat CryptoLocker: Protecting your files from CyptoLocker and other malware

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/oct/19/10-ways-beat-cryptolocker-protect-files

• Back up your files. If you use an external hard drive, don't leave it connected to your PC unless you are backing up. Alternatively, pay for an online back-up service – but bear in mind you may still be vulnerable if your backed-up files are mapped as a network drive. Check with your provider if you are unsure.

• Create files in the Cloud and upload photos to online accounts like Flickr or Picasa.

• Switch to a spam- and virus-filtered email service. Google Mail, for example, does not allow you to receive or send executable files (that can install viruses) as email attachments, even if they are hidden in zip files. (It also does not allow you to send them).

• Don't go to online porn sites, which are often the source of malware downloads. Take care when clicking on adverts; never open Twitter links and attachments from people you don't know or trust.

• Make sure your operating system is up-to-date with the latest security.

• Install the latest versions of your internet browsers and update add-ons such as Java and Adobe Flash.

• Get reputable anti-virus software and ensure you update it frequently.

• On Windows 7, double-check that you have set up System Restore points or, if you are using Windows 8, configure it to keep the "file history".

• Act quickly. If you do accidentally download a dodgy attachment, bear in mind it is likely to take some time for the encryption to take place. If you immediately download and run an anti-virus programme, such as the free anti-virus toolkit available from Sophos, it could destroy the CryptoLocker before all your files have been encrypted – however, you will permanently lose affected files.

• Encrypt the files you particularly want to keep private, such as documents containing your passwords or personal information, to prevent criminals from reading what's in them. Read this useful "Ask Jack" post on the Guardian technology blog to find out more about encrypting your files.

[xchrom]

11. The Start-Ups Trying to Kill the Credit Card

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/11/the-start-ups-trying-to-kill-the-credit-card/281863/




The future of money has arrived, and it's called Coin.

It looks like a credit card. It's the size of a credit card. It swipes in credit card machines. But it holds the information of up to eight of your debit, credit, rewards, or gift cards. And you can switch between cards by simply pressing a button.

The new product, launched recently, promises to change the way consumers spend money in a secure and efficient way.

The key technology is a Bluetooth signal. To load information from your different cards, just swipe them on a card reader into your Apple or Android phone and take a picture of the card. If you're too far from your card—like, say, you leave it at the restaurant—your phone gets a notification. And the Coin's battery lasts up to two years.

But this San Francisco company is just one of many start-ups across the country that are finding new ways of developing the future of retail.

[xchrom]

12. Pope Francis's Theory of Economics

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/11/pope-franciss-theory-of-economics/281865/


Pope Francis and, clockwise from top left: Keynes, Polanyi, Hayek, and Marx (Reuters/Giampiero Sposito/Wikimedia Commons)

***SNIP


Karl Polanyi is most famous for his book The Great Transformation, and in particular for one idea in that book: the distinction between an "economy being embedded in social relations" and "social relations [being] embedded in the economic system."

Polanyi's Big Idea: The Economy Has to Serve Society, Not the Other Way Around

Economic activity, Polanyi says, started off as just one of many outgrowths of human activity. And so, economics originally served human needs. But over time, people (particularly, policy-making people) got the idea that markets regulated themselves if laws and regulations got out of their way. The free market converts told people that "only such policies and measures are in order which help to ensure the self-regulation of the market by creating the conditions which make the market the only organizing power in the economic sphere." Gradually, as free market-based thinking was extended throughout society, humans and nature came to be seen as commodities called "labor" and "land." The "market economy" had turned human society into a "market society."

In short (as social sciences professors prepare to slam their heads into their tables at my reductionism), instead of the market existing to help humans live better lives, humans were ordering their lives to fit into the economy.

What Pope Francis Said

Now, back to the pope. Pope Francis, in his exhortation, notably does not call for a complete overhaul of the economy. He doesn't talk revolution, and there's certainly no Marxist talk of inexorable historical forces.

[xchrom]

13. Your Brain on Poverty: Why Poor People Seem to Make Bad Decisions

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/11/your-brain-on-poverty-why-poor-people-seem-to-make-bad-decisions/281780/

In August, Science published a landmark study concluding that poverty, itself, hurts our ability to make decisions about school, finances, and life, imposing a mental burden similar to losing 13 IQ points.

It was widely seen as a counter-argument to claims that poor people are "to blame" for bad decisions and a rebuke to policies that withhold money from the poorest families unless they behave in a certain way. After all, if being poor leads to bad decision-making (as opposed to the other way around), then giving cash should alleviate the cognitive burdens of poverty, all on its own.

Sometimes, science doesn't stick without a proper anecdote, and "Why I Make Terrible Decisions," a comment published on Gawker's Kinja platform by a person in poverty, is a devastating illustration of the Science study. I've bolded what I found the most moving, insightful portions, but it's a moving and insightful testimony all the way through.

I make a lot of poor financial decisions. None of them matter, in the long term. I will never not be poor, so what does it matter if I don’t pay a thing and a half this week instead of just one thing? It’s not like the sacrifice will result in improved circumstances; the thing holding me back isn’t that I blow five bucks at Wendy’s. It’s that now that I have proven that I am a Poor Person that is all that I am or ever will be. It is not worth it to me to live a bleak life devoid of small pleasures so that one day I can make a single large purchase. I will never have large pleasures to hold on to. There’s a certain pull to live what bits of life you can while there’s money in your pocket, because no matter how responsible you are you will be broke in three days anyway. When you never have enough money it ceases to have meaning. I imagine having a lot of it is the same thing.

Poverty is bleak and cuts off your long-term brain. It’s why you see people with four different babydaddies instead of one. You grab a bit of connection wherever you can to survive. You have no idea how strong the pull to feel worthwhile is. It’s more basic than food. You go to these people who make you feel lovely for an hour that one time, and that’s all you get. You’re probably not compatible with them for anything long-term, but right this minute they can make you feel powerful and valuable. It does not matter what will happen in a month. Whatever happens in a month is probably going to be just about as indifferent as whatever happened today or last week. None of it matters. We don’t plan long-term because if we do we’ll just get our hearts broken. It’s best not to hope. You just take what you can get as you spot it.

[kickysnana]

29. Since Grocery stores do not discout poor peoples food the first week of the month...

I suggest using food shelves, visiting grandma, crashing funerals, to get yourself a weeks cushion and then you can buy about 25% more food for the same price, the last week of the month sometimes 50% or more if you cherry pick and use coupons available online in newspapers and magazines. Eating while poor in America requires a lot more planning and work.

For the other cash purchases. When kleenex are on sale at walgreens for .99 regularly $1.79-2.29 buy two and use a manufacturers coupon. Do that for staples, TP, dish soap, laundry soup or fixins.

Dilute frozen juice with more water than recommended. They say that it is too much for babies toddlers and bad for the teeth of kids that strong.

If you live in an apartment you can hand clothes to dry on the shower pole. They dry really quick in the winter.

[Demeter]

14. JP Morgan's long road to clean-up: time for bank to show what it's really made of

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/nov/20/jp-morgan-fine-bank-clean-up?CMP=ema_565



In politics, there's a saying about what gets you in hot water: it’s not the crime; it’s the cover-up. In the financial industry you might say: it’s not the crime; it’s the clean-up.

The clean-up period – the financial and moral reckoning that can last up to a decade – is when you get to see what a bank and its culture are made of: whether they respond with remorse (rare), with distancing hubris (frequent), or with lavish payouts (always).

JP Morgan just paid a $13bn fine to settle charges that it sold bad mortgages to investors and government agencies. The bank didn’t admit to breaking the law, but it agreed it misrepresented the quality of mortgage securities that it sold. Such an admission and such a large fine, being the biggest in US corporate history, would seem to draw a line under the whole sordid mortgage affair – but, as events of the past week have shown, the bank’s clean-up is really just beginning.

There are, inevitably, more fines and lawsuits to come this year. Harry Fong, a managing director with Wall Street research firm MKM Partners, suggested that the settlement might prove good news for others waiting to sue JP Morgan as well as its rivals: “The headlines of the settlement certainly seem to favor counterparties still in litigation against JPM and other banks,” he wrote, though he also cautioned that the courts may not be sufficiently moved: “But headlines are not judicial rulings.”

MORE

[xchrom]

15. {i want them in several colors}Sony files patent for 'SmartWig'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25099262


Sony says the SmartWig will be both intelligent and fashionable

Sony has filed a patent application for "SmartWig", as firms jostle for the lead in the wearable technology sector.

It says the SmartWig can be worn "in addition to natural hair", and will be able to process data and communicate wirelessly with other external devices.

According to the filing, the SmartWig can help navigate roads and collect information such as blood pressure.

Google and Samsung are among the firms that have launched products in wearable technology - seen as a key growth area.

[Demeter]

17. The thought gives me the creeps

let alone the color selection...


IT's taking me some time to get back into posting...but I will be gaining ground (again) until the next crisis..

[xchrom]

19. we miss you when you're not here.

and we get a little worried.

any way -- happy chanukah tonight and thanksgiving tomorrow!

[xchrom]

16. China cotton reserves to go on sale

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25118513

China, which has about half the world's cotton, will start sales from its reserves on Thursday, the China National Cotton Exchange has said.

The aim is to increase the supply to China's domestic textile market.

But the sale, from its 10 million tonnes of stockpiled cotton, is likely to meet stiff competition from cheap Indian imports, traders have said.

It is expected to be priced at 18,000 yuan (£1,810; $2,950) a tonne, about 70% more than current world prices.

[xchrom]

18. Portugal passes latest austerity budget

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25112393


Portugal is set for another tough year after its government approved a new set of budget measures.

The country is struggling to come back to financial health and meet the terms of an international bailout.

It has now passed another set of spending cuts, which face strong opposition from workers who will be directly affected.

They also face a court challenge that, if successful, could derail Portugal's goal of exiting the bailout in 2014.

[xchrom]

20. Fed Reveals New Concerns About Long-Term U.S. Slowdown

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-27/fed-reveals-new-concerns-about-long-term-u-s-slowdown.html

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues are suffering through their own form of cognitive dissonance: revealing new concerns about the economy’s long-term prospects even as they forecast faster growth in 2014.

Worker productivity, a key component of an economy’s health, has risen at an annual clip of 1 percent during the last four years, as the U.S. has struggled to recover from the worst recession since the Great Depression. That’s less than half the 2.2 percent average gain since 1983, according to data from the Labor Department in Washington.

“Slower growth in productivity might have become the norm,” the central bankers noted at their Oct. 29-30 meeting, according to the minutes released last week. That’s a switch from past comments by Bernanke that the deceleration probably was temporary and would end as the expansion continued.

A combination of forces may be at work. Chastened by the deep economic slump, corporate executives have reduced spending plans for factories, equipment, research and development. Startup businesses have been held back as would-be entrepreneurs find it harder to get financing from still-cautious lenders. And out-of-work Americans have seen their skills atrophy the longer they’re without jobs.

[xchrom]

21. Norway Debates $800 Billion Wealth Fund’s Investment Options

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-26/norway-debates-800-billion-wealth-fund-s-investment-options.html

Norway’s central bank Governor Oeystein Olsen said it would be natural for the nation’s $800 billion sovereign wealth fund to expand the asset classes it invests in as the new government considers how best to deal with the fund’s growth.

Olsen signaled support for a 2010 recommendation, which was rejected the following year, for the fund to invest in infrastructure and private equity as the new administration of Prime Minister Erna Solberg reviews its investment mandate.

Growth in the wealth fund, into which Norway channels most of its income from oil and gas, is already creating investment hurdles, Chief Investment Officer for Equities Petter Johnsen said on Nov. 1. The fund has more than quadrupled since 2005 and will grow to 5.34 trillion kroner ($875 billion) by the end of next year, the government estimates. The fund in 2010 was allowed to invest 5 percent in real estate, expanding from just placing money in bonds and stocks.

“We’ve achieved this 5 percent share in real estate and we’re working with filling that gap,” Olsen said yesterday in an interview in Oslo. “Right now there are no immediate plans of making new requests but when the fund expands, the signal that was given by Norges Bank in 2010 was quite natural.”

[xchrom]

22. Durable Goods Orders Drop as U.S. Shutdown Hurts Confidence

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-27/orders-for-u-s-durable-goods-drop-as-shutdown-hurts-confidence.html

Orders for U.S. durable goods dropped in October, reflecting a broad-based retreat and signaling the government shutdown hurt business confidence.

Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years decreased 2 percent, matching the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, after a 4.1 percent gain in September that was larger than initially reported, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. Orders for aircraft and capital goods, such as machinery and computers slumped.

The 16-day partial federal shutdown last month combined with continuing budget cuts have prompted companies such as Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) to trim staff and close factories, which will weigh on growth. A lack of a rebound in bookings this month will mean businesses are unwilling to investment in expanding amid concern the economic expansion won’t accelerate in 2014.

“There’s not that sense of new capital spending,” John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. “There may be a replacement of capital, but not new capital spending that needs to be stimulated because of higher output production levels.”

[xchrom]

23. Slump-Watchers Dump Yield Curve for 1970s Tool: Cutting Research

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-27/slump-watchers-dump-yield-curve-for-1970s-tool-cutting-research.html

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has lost its forecasting power and investors wanting to divine the possibility of a U.S. recession should turn to a little-known equation from the 1970s.

That’s the recommendation of Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner, who told clients in a Nov. 18 report that the Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rate and asset-buying is holding down U.S. bond rates. That means the yield curve would struggle to invert, crimping its effectiveness as an indicator of business cycles, she wrote.

An inversion occurs when three-month bill yields top those of 10-year notes, signaling investors are betting on weaker economic growth. Recessions have followed six of the eight times that’s happened since 1960; there hasn’t been a U.S. recession that wasn’t preceded by an inverted curve in the period.

An ideal leading indicator would exclude components such as the yield curve that behave perversely during times of financial stress, said New York-based Zentner. She suggested investors look at the Duncan Leading Indicator, devised in 1977 by Wallace Duncan, then of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

[xchrom]

24. Record Spread Blowout Sparks Mini-Crisis Warning: China Credit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-26/record-spread-blowout-sparks-mini-crisis-warning-china-credit.html

Chinese companies’ borrowing costs are climbing at a record pace relative to the government’s, increasing the risk of defaults and prompting state newspapers to warn of a limited debt crisis.

The extra yield investors demand to hold three-year AAA corporate bonds instead of government notes surged 35 basis points last week to 182 basis points, the biggest increase since data became available in September 2007, Chinabond indexes show. That exceeds the similar spread in India of 120 basis points. The benchmark seven-day repurchase rate has averaged 4.47 percent in November, the highest since a record cash crunch in June and up from 3.21 percent a year earlier.

“Existing interest-rate levels and tighter credit conditions will pose downward pressure on growth,” said Kewei Yang, head of Asia-Pacific interest-rate strategy at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. “Any potential defaults or bankruptcies in 2014 will trigger the market to reprice credit risk.”

A People’s Bank of China pledge to prevent excessive leveraging has contributed to the surge in borrowing costs, prompting state-run newspapers from China Securities Journal to Economic Information Daily to call for easier monetary policy to prevent a slump in economic growth. The debt of listed companies excluding financial firms has doubled since 2009 to some $2 trillion. Local governments may owe 20 trillion yuan ($3.3 trillion), Liu Yuhui, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in September.

[xchrom]

25. The Message Is Sinking In That Central Banks Are In A 'QE Trap'

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-message-is-sinking-in-that-central-banks-are-in-a-qe-trap-2013-11

LONDON (Reuters) - The message is sinking in - economies of the rich world face super-easy money far into the future and central banks are now convinced it's the least of all policy evils.
Despite rumblings of dissent about the financial bubbles and iniquities associated with zero interest rates and money printing, 2013 is ending with a remarkable certainty among global investors that cheap money is around for the long haul.

And the outsize financial market reaction this year to even a suggestion the U.S. Federal Reserve would dial back money printing crystallizes the point for many. And even if the Fed does taper asset buying in 2014, liquidity from the Bank of Japan or European Central Bank could be boosted to offset it.

That's not to say money managers are all cheer leading this. Many who spoke at Reuters Investment Outlook summit last week doubted its long-term efficacy and feared its social and political fallout even as waves of cheap cash continue to push stock markets to new records.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-message-is-sinking-in-that-central-banks-are-in-a-qe-trap-2013-11#ixzz2lr47O9zS

[xchrom]

26. JPMorgan Tried But Failed To Satisfy The Fed On Metals Warehousing

http://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-tried-but-failed-to-satisfy-the-fed-on-metals-warehousing-2013-11

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve was pressing JPMorgan Chase & Co <JPM.N> to distance itself from its metals warehousing business more than a year ago, documents seen by Reuters show, long before the issue became a focal point in the debate over Wall Street's role in physical commodities trading.

A series of letters between JPMorgan's lawyers and the Fed, released to Reuters through a Freedom of Information Act request, show Wall Street's primary regulator took a tough stance on the bank's efforts to hold onto the global network of Henry Bath & Sons warehouses, part of the larger RBS Sempra commodity trading business it bought in mid-2010.

The correspondence shows the Fed balked at JPMorgan's request to turn the one-time trading assets into a strictly arms-length financial investment back in June 2012, and told the bank it must provide quarterly updates on what it was doing to either comply with banking rules, or sell the business.

The Fed also pressured JPMorgan to dilute the amount of metal held by its own traders in Henry Bath, an issue that has riled major metal consumers and critics of a copper investment fund the bank was trying to launch.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-tried-but-failed-to-satisfy-the-fed-on-metals-warehousing-2013-11#ixzz2lr53bu9V

[Demeter]

27. 10 things stores won’t say about Black Friday:There’s a very fine line between deals and delirium

OR NO LINE AT ALL, ACTUALLY, EXCEPT IN THE STORES...

1. “Expect pandemonium at the stores.”
2. “We’re expecting the worst sales in years.”
3. “We ruined Thanksgiving.”
4. “You should have stayed home.”
5. “Prices will be lower in December.”
6. “Prepare for violence.”
7. “Consumer apps have us cornered.”
8. “Our price-match guarantees may not guarantee much.”
9. “You won’t give us your email address? Say goodbye to some deals.”
10. “You’re going to spend more than you intended.”

AND HAVE A HAPPY THANKSGIVING, WHILE YOU ARE AT IT

[Demeter]

28. Obamacare may soon have too many applications

SAME SHIT, DIFFERENT DAY...WHAT IS MORE LIKELY, TOO MANY UNHAPPY APPLICANTS

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obamcare-may-soon-have-too-many-applications-2013-11-27?siteid=YAHOOB

Americans signing up health coverage through Obamacare have roughly three weeks left to choose an insurance plan that kicks in Jan. 1.

While enrollment is expected to run more smoothly in the coming weeks than it did at the start of the enrollment period, those shopping for coverage in December should still be prepared for further glitches, delayed paperwork and some time on the phone with insurers and medical providers while their applications are processed. For starters, government officials say that HealthCare.gov, the site hosting the insurance exchange for 36 states, should be working more smoothly next month for most -- but not all -- users. “The system will not work perfectly on Dec. 1, but it will work much better than it did in October,” Julie Bataille, spokeswoman for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services told reporters during a conference call this week.

Many of the consumers enrolling in the final weeks of the year could be people who qualify for subsidies to lower their monthly insurance costs, and were held back by technical problems in the early weeks of enrollment as a result. Only a third of the people who have enrolled on the exchanges so far were eligible for subsidies, far below the 84% of enrollees eventually expected to receive financial aid, according to an analysis by consultant Avalere Heatlh.

Some insurance companies have been able to sign consumers up for coverage from start to finish through a process known as direct enrollment. But the option has been offered on a limited scale, and has largely been off limits to people who expect to receive subsidies since insurers still need to use HealthCare.gov to verify an applicant’s income. That could get easier in the coming weeks, following fixes that government officials said should let more insurers use direct enrollment, including a pilot program in Texas, Florida and Ohio where insurers are testing the process out and reporting back to officials on possible glitches...

BLATHER, BLATHER, BLATHER

[Fuddnik]

30. The trouble with Economics is Economists. Krugman

November 27, 2013, 11:19 am 30 Comments
The Trouble With Economics Is Economists

That’s in large part what Simon Wren-Lewis is saying in this post defending mainstream economics. And I largely agree.

It is deeply unfair to blame textbook economics either for the crisis or for the poor response to the crisis. The mania for financial deregulation, for example, didn’t come out of standard economic analysis — in fact, it flew in the face of the canonical model of banking crises, Diamond-Dybvig, which suggested both a crucial role of government guarantees to prevent self-fulfilling panics and the need for regulation to control the moral hazard such guarantees would create. It’s true that few economists tracked the rise of shadow banking that bypassed the traditional safeguards — but that was a problem of vigilance, not bad theory.

Efficient markets theory arguably deserves more blame for the failure of too many economists to recognize the housing bubble, but textbook economics always presented EMT as a baseline, not a revealed truth.

As for the crisis response, the remarkable thing has been the determination of policy makers to do the opposite of what textbook macroeconomics said they should have been doing. Slashing spending when interest rates are zero, jumping at any excuse to raise rates, aren’t about orthodox economics being applied — in fact, the amazing thing has been to watch the proliferation of newly invented models to justify doing the opposite of what Econ 101 says.

The problem, of course, is that this wasn’t just a case of ignorant or bull-headed political appointees ignoring economic wisdom: many prestigious economists were all too eager to turn their backs on standard macro, even when it was working very well, on behalf of their political leanings.

(snip)

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/11/27/the-trouble-with-economics-is-economists/?nl=opinion&emc=edit_ty_20131127&_r=0

[Demeter]

31. ECONOMIST, HEAL THYSELF!

Sometimes Dr. Krugman lets his partisanship sway his intellect....

[Tansy_Gold]

33. My thoughts exactly

Here, Dr. Krugman, allow me to hand you a mirror. . . .