Official “Labor Market Conditions” Give off First Warning Signs

[marmar]

Official “Labor Market Conditions” Give off First Warning Signs
by Wolf Richter • May 9, 2016


Jobs metrics were immune to worsening economic malaise.

The official labor market metrics in the US — unemployment rate, number of jobs created, weekly unemployment insurance claims, etc. — have been immune to the worsening malaise visible elsewhere:

• Total business sales have declined since mid-2014.
• Business inventories have reached crisis levels.
• Corporate earnings, no matter how financially engineered, have fallen four quarters in a row.
• Productivity is down.
• Commercial bankruptcies in April soared 32% year-over-year to 3,482, with Chapter 11 filings skyrocketing 67%.
• The Freight Recession hit full stride with trucking deteriorating and railroad traffic down sharply as layoffs spread across the industry, and even Union Pacific engines are idled in large numbers in out-of-the-way places across the US.
• Layoff announcements are cascading through the country, including tech.
• The brick-and-mortar retail sector is in crisis and faces a wave of bankruptcies.
• The oil and gas sector is practically collapsing.
Etc.

And throughout, the official employment metrics did not reflect these trends.

Now, however, the first squiggles are showing up in the numbers. So today’s Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) is particularly important — because it shows those squiggles.

We already got a foretaste last week when unemployment claims surged by the most in over a year, and the nonfarm jobs number, the worst since January 2014, was a doozie of a disappointment for many analysts. ...............(more)

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/05/09/official-labor-market-conditions-lmci-first-warning-signs/

[puffy socks]

1. Stories like this

are written to grab eyes.
Ive seen the same stories over and over since the early 80s.
Doom and gloom sells

[marmar]

2. And we've had recessions over and over again since the 80s.

Sometimes it's not doom-and-gloom, it's just reality.

[Wednesdays]

3. "First, you strategically position your pieces...

... and when the timing is right you strike. They're using this signal to syncronize their efforts and in 5 hours the countdown will be over... Checkmate."

To say we're all pawns in this chess match would be disingenuous to real pawns.

[forest444]

5. It does indeed look like big business is concocting a recession - just in time for the election.

It doesn't help, of course, that wages aren't being raised in real terms.

[angrychair]

4. Uhhhh

I've seen the earnings reports for many large corporations and they are booming. Hell, their is another story here on DU about the top hedge fund managers bringing in $13 billion dollars last year.

Sorry, it's hard for me to shed a tear because some asshole will have to buy a smaller mansion this year.

[abelenkpe]

6. It's strange

This was on the front page. And then it disappeared even though it has more recs than the stories that replaced it. Don't understand how the whole home page thing works anymore. So ofter only fluff shows up there.

Anyway, yeah, corporations are positioning themselves so they are flush with cash. The whole thing seems a bit shaky with Puerto Rico and Brazil. Maybe business is just going defensive? Or perhaps something is up.

Personally I'm so happy to live through more than a decade of rock bottom interest rates, stagnant wages and ever increasing health care, housing and education costs. I mean who needs to save money to retire or buy a home or send kids to college? There's nothing wrong with the economy. Everything is peachy.