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Under Trump, Job Market Has Improved More for Clinton Supporters
If his assumptions are correct.
Under Trump, Job Market Has Improved More for Clinton Supporters
Jed Kolko SEPT. 5, 2017
Since President Trump took office in January, job growth has continued to be robust, and the unemployment rate has continued to fall. Republicans have become far more confident about the economy since the election.
Democrats, meanwhile, have grown far less confident about the economy. But the job market has improved at least as much for those likelier to be Hillary Clinton supporters as for Trump supporters. In fact, the drop in unemployment and the rise in wages have been stronger for them by some measures.
{snip chart, which I can't link to}
These estimates are based on data that the Labor Department uses for the monthly jobs reports, combined with a model of voting based on demographics.
Contrary to popular perception, likelier Trump supporters were doing better over all in the labor market than likelier Clinton supporters both before and after the election. Throughout 2016 and in 2017, both the unemployment rate and a broader measure, U-6, which captures people who are working part-time but want a full-time job and those who would like a job but have given up looking out of frustration, were lower for likelier Trump supporters than for likelier Clinton supporters. Median full-time wages were higher for likelier Trump supporters, too. These results reflect the fact that Trump voters were older and whiter than Clinton voters.
Jed Kolko SEPT. 5, 2017
Since President Trump took office in January, job growth has continued to be robust, and the unemployment rate has continued to fall. Republicans have become far more confident about the economy since the election.
Democrats, meanwhile, have grown far less confident about the economy. But the job market has improved at least as much for those likelier to be Hillary Clinton supporters as for Trump supporters. In fact, the drop in unemployment and the rise in wages have been stronger for them by some measures.
{snip chart, which I can't link to}
These estimates are based on data that the Labor Department uses for the monthly jobs reports, combined with a model of voting based on demographics.
Contrary to popular perception, likelier Trump supporters were doing better over all in the labor market than likelier Clinton supporters both before and after the election. Throughout 2016 and in 2017, both the unemployment rate and a broader measure, U-6, which captures people who are working part-time but want a full-time job and those who would like a job but have given up looking out of frustration, were lower for likelier Trump supporters than for likelier Clinton supporters. Median full-time wages were higher for likelier Trump supporters, too. These results reflect the fact that Trump voters were older and whiter than Clinton voters.
