How Low Can Unemployment Really Go? Economists Have No Idea.

[elleng]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/upshot/how-low-can-unemployment-really-go-economists-have-no-idea.html?

Corporate America Is Suppressing Wages for Many Workers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/opinion/corporate-america-suppressing-wages.html?

Things to think about.

[louis-t]

1. There will always be 4% of the population that

can't, or don't want to work. Republicans cannot get past that. They feel it is their lot in life to punish people, and they will continue to do so.

[elleng]

2. Yes, they are the punishers.

I think they spank their kids with relish.

[progree]

3. Those people aren't counted as unemployed. To be unemployed, you have to have looked for work

sometime in the past 4 weeks, and also be ready and willing to take a job. And "looking for work" means more than just reading job ads, it means contacting employers, submitting applications at least.

The above is speaking of the official unemployment rate, also known as U-3.

"How the Government Measures Unemployment" http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

There will always be 4% of the population that can't, or don't want to work.

Vastly more than 4%.

The below is for the age 16+ population (age 16 to infinity), civilian non-institutional population

Not In Labor Force: 95,665,000
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

Not In Labor Force, Wants Job: 5,171,000
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

Subtracting the above two, that means 90,494,000 are not working, are not looking for a job, and don't want a job. Obviously a lot of those are full-time students or disabled, or voluntarily retired elderly.

Back to the approx. 4% official unemployment rate -- historically that is believed to be about as low as it goes (yes, I know it was down to 3.8% under Clinton) just due to the time it takes to find another job, and start another job, for those actively looking for work. They talk about the technology for finding jobs being better now, presumably cutting that transition time, but don't they take longer now to do background checks -- I read an article about that somewhere.

[Farmer-Rick]

4. Don't forget the armies of Wal-Mart part time workers are all counted as employed.

[marble falls]

5. 4 or 5% has always been commonly accepted.