JOB GROWTH SURGES BY 312,000 IN DECEMBER

[at140]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/nonfarm-payrolls-december-2018.html

Are these numbers massaged by the government?
Figures don't lie but those who make up figures can lie!

[still_one]

1. Most likely it was contributed to by the Christmas hiring that always occurs around this time

[progree]

6. The numbers are seasonally adjusted

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

[still_one]

7. thanks. Regardless, we will see what happens next month if this is a trend or an aberation

[progree]

8. A lot of possibility that much of it is aberration --

there is a 90% probability that the Establishment Survey's non-farm employment increase is within +/- 120,000 of the stated number. And a 10% chance that it is off by more than 120,000 -- -- http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm


Monthly changes in Nonfarm Payroll Jobs
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
2016 103 257 235 174 34 285 325 175 264 140 172 180
2017 259 200 73 175 155 239 190 221 14 271 216 175
2018 176 324 155 175 268 208 165 286 119 274 176(P) 312(P)
P : preliminary

Interesting that the growth in Employment is only 142,000 in December, according to the separate Household Survey (the Household Survey produces a ton of statistics including the headline unemployment rate, Labor Force Participation Rate, on and on)

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

Monthly changes in Employment, Household Survey
2016 458(1) 312(1) 212 -183 111 30 346 316 111 72 201 126
2017 -148(1) 289(1) 541 192 -230 256 280 135 808 -552 98 120
2018 417(1) 731(1) -53 56 323 53 372 -360 465 513 221 142
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.

Zig Zag Zung

That particular statistic has a +/-300,000 with 90% probability

[still_one]

9. wow, terrific analysis

[progree]

10. Thanks :-)

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

2. They're massaged by the gop corporate owner/heads who can hire at will

even in down times. It's an age old trick the rich use to bolster their "guys" in office. Hire under a repub, fire under a democrat. Helps grease the wheels of their platform and give them numerical statistics to somehow bolster the idea that repubs are best for the country.
If ANY tax breaks are given to corps then this selective hiring needs to be regulated and evened out over ALL political stripes. We all pay the taxes, and the right wing uses the tax break to do the above, and more. Just an opinion.

[at140]

4. There will be no more tax breaks for the rich under Nancy Pelosi

which means tRump won't be able to crow about economy as the election gets closer.
That 35% down to 21% tax reduction for corporates was a windfall bonanza, but it's effects
are already petering out. The current figures, even if true, are bad timing for Rump's re-election.

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

5. Hopefully they rescind the last two or three

Last edited Fri Jan 4, 2019, 12:53 PM - Edit history (1)

tax breaks. The gop has had several since 2000. Remember Clintons SURPLUS??? Who does that anymore? Go Bill! All BLOWN in tax cuts.
Funny how they always act like they've never had one (a tax break), every time they cry for one.

[at140]

3. That was my first thought as well

Especially the mail-order delivery people seemed to be extremely busy.
I had ordered a cheap laptop ($119) from Walmart and FEDEX could not deliever
it as scheduled. That has never happened before except during bad weather, but
there was no bad weather from Dallas to Florida.