'The pain is just beginning': After 38,000 layoffs, Wall Street wakes up to 'peak car'

[TexasTowelie]

Global demand for cars will decline 3% in 2019, analysts predict. There have been 38,000 job losses among automakers in the last six months. One stark example: Commercial vehicle exports from the UK collapsed by 89% in April. The decline of cars has already wiped 0.2% off global GDP, according to Fitch Ratings. The world may have already passed "peak car." For the auto business, "The pain is just beginning," according to Nomura analyst Masataka Kunugimoto and his team. "We now expect global auto demand to be down 3%," year on year, in 2019, he told clients recently.

He is not alone. At bank after bank, analysts are coming round to the idea that the world may have passed "peak car," and that in the future humans will need fewer personal vehicles.

Certainly, they are telling clients, diesel vehicles will collapse into a small niche as their polluting exhausts are regulated out of existence. Petrol/gasoline vehicles will be next, as governments in Europe and the United States set dates for manufacturers to switch their models to electric.

But that's not all. As on-demand services like Uber and Lyft grow their customer bases, more people will decide they no longer need to own a car of their own. Why would you, when it's cheaper to ride around in someone else's?

Read more: https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/The-pain-is-just-beginning-After-38-000-13916796.php

[True Blue American]

1. The Auto Industry

Is now in their periodic 10 years slump. This has been going on as long as I can remember.

People replace their old cars like crazy, then the slump takes place.

[3Hotdogs]

2. My house, we gave up one of two cars, to Lyft.

Lyft costs us on average, $13. per week.

N.J. insurance alone was $1,200 per year. N.J. insurance is high.

[TexasTowelie]

3. Michigan is even more expensive

due to mandatory unlimited PIP coverage. The governor recently signed a bill so that the PIP coverage is optional.

[llmart]

5. Try living in Michigan.

Our rates are astronomical. Thankfully, we now have a Dem governor who is going to take care of this nonsense.

[mopinko]

4. i would hope that they are exaggerating this part-

Why would you, when it's cheaper to ride around in someone else's?

if that is literally true, that means lyft drivers are losing money, which many are.
doesnt sound like a great solution to me.

[Gore1FL]

6. I am pretty sure Lyft and Uber drivers are getting screwed.

But I don't know if they are losing money, exactly. The economy-of-scale is what likely makes it more of a low paying job as opposed to a money-losing job. Either way, I wouldn't recommend uber, lyft or any similar gig job to anyone.

[mopinko]

7. my tenants do it, delivering food.

for ubereats and grubhub. the way they run it really screws the drivers. and their database is full of errors that cost the drivers. the extra taxes and the wear and tear on the cars suck up more than they think.

i know someone else who did uber early on, and they kept jacking up the amount of their take. went from something like 20% to 50%, iirc.

[Farmer-Rick]

8. Capitalism is all about making a profit off of someone else's labor

That said, the Lyft and Uber business model will eventually fail. Can't keep screwing over your labor forever. Eventually labor goes broke and can't afford to work at a loss anymore. But with over 150 million adults to screw over in the US alone, it may take awhile before everyone refuses to drive for other people's profits. Also since car sales are dwindling and self driving technology is improving, they will be having to invest in those self driving vehicles soon, and then we are back to taxis and rentals.

But here in rural TN, a one way Uber ride to the mechanic's would cost me about $60. Now, how can they Not make a profit off a $120 round trip? I guess if the corporation takes a big bite of it. But insurance runs about $600 a year and gas prices and car repair costs are always lower than in the rest of the country.

[3Hotdogs]

9. ---$600 + additional you have to buy when you are running Lyft or Uber.

How much of the $120 does the driver get? How far is the ride and how many peeps going to the mechanic does he get in a day? Remember, the round trip is half on one day and half on the day you pick up the car. I live in a suburban area. There is a reason Lyft drivers drive 30 or 40 miles from their house to hang out in Maplewood and get fares here. How much of the rest of the time is down time?


Yes, about capitalism making a profit off someone else's labor. The only reason it survives is the same reason as the lottery. Rubes believe someday they are going to be the one making $$$$$$$$ of some other rube.

[bronxiteforever]

10. Older people don't spend money on new cars &

Don’t drive as much. Especially with Uber as an option.
Aging population means less cars. This going to be a long term trend.