Fidelity: Coronavirus 'grey swan' could derail global growth
Financial News London
By David Ricketts
February 13, 2020 12:01 am GMT
Sentiment among analysts at Fidelity International has dropped to its lowest level in four years, with the coronavirus identified as a potential threat to companies’ growth prospects in 2020.
According to the asset manager’s influential analyst survey — comprising the views of 150 Fidelity members of staff and based on 15,000 meetings with companies — the escalating contagion could prove a serious blow to already-fragile business confidence.
“If not exactly a black swan for international companies and markets, the outbreak of the coronavirus is at least a grey one,” the report said.
Fidelity’s general sentiment indicator, its gauge of chief executives’ confidence, the financial strength of their businesses and their likelihood of paying dividends in the next 12 months, was only just positive at 0.2 for 2020. That was its lowest since 2016, when it was in negative territory.
...The report pointed to a flat outlook for US corporations, despite them having previously led global expansion. Companies in Europe and Japan are set for a better year, Fidelity said. O’Neill said uncertainty was a factor for the US outlook. “It is an election year and we don’t know 100% who will be running or what Trump will do. That has brought in an element of caution. Corporates also do not want to send a bullish message to politicians if they are fighting for whatever is on their agendas.”
More here
https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/fidelity-coronavirus-grey-swan-could-derail-global-growth-20200213
