STOCK MARKET WATCH - Wednesday, 18 March 2020

[Tansy_Gold]

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, 18 March 2020

Previous SMW:
SMW for 17 March 2020




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON: 17 March 2020


Dow Jones 21,237.38 +1,048.86 (5.20%)
S&P 500 2,529.19 +143.06 (6.00%)
Nasdaq 7,334.78 +430.19 (6.23%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours:

Google Finance
MarketWatch
Bloomberg
Stocktwits
Yahoo International
CNN Money Premarket

(click on links for latest updates)

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Currencies:







Gold & Silver:



Petroleum:

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DU Economics Group Contributor Megathreads:

Progree's Economic Statistics (with links!)
mahatmakanejeeves' Rail Safety Megathread

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

[Warpy]

1. Another good day not to look at the markets tomorrow

I guess people are reacting to Dopey's presser, Dow futures are down 800+ right now.

[Maeve]

2. What was gained yesterday looks to be lost today

But some people only care about one news cycle win at a time!

(Just like some people have all the best words and give themselves 10 out of 10 for handling a crisis)

Actually, watching the markets again is helping me stay in no drama mama mode instead of letting myself freak out or get depressed. We've been thru bad before, we'll get thru this, too.

[Tansy_Gold]

3. I'm not invested, so there's that advantage to being poor

But yes, the thought that we've been through bad stuff before is somewhat comforting. Was the other stuff worse? That's a subjective call. But there was certainly some very bad stuff, and we managed as a nation to pull together, more or less.

If nothing else, we have the long-time solidarity of SMW.

[Maeve]

4. Hubby's IRA is in a managed fund

And so we keep getting friendly "DON'T PANIC!!!!" e-mails from our advisor.

Didn't panic in 2008, not panicking now. Washing the Tums down with whiskey, but not panicking!

(If we don't laugh, we don't survive)

[Warpy]

11. It was all the tax cut money flooding into the market

both from corporations doing buybacks of their own stock and fat cats getting fatter that drove it up in the first place.

Just think if those tax cuts hadn't been passed, we could have gotten rid of the ACA deductibles or decreased student loan debt or even raised wages so the working poor would be less poor.

The Republicans wanted tax cuts for Dopey and his buddies, so all that money just went "poof."

This is what the Democrats need to campaign on. TAX CUTS DON'T WORK.

[Tansy_Gold]

5. 12:45 p.m. EDT

Dow Jones Industrial Average

19,708.15 ?1,529.23 (7.20%)


S&P 500 Index

2,365.61 ?163.58 (6.47%)



Nasdaq Composite

6,932.14 ?402.64 (5.49%)

[Maeve]

6. Looks like we hit the circuit breaker again

DOW -7.82% 19,576.75 / -1,661

Nasdaq -6.30% 6,872.41 / -462.37

S&P -7.01% 2,351.90 / -177.29

[Tansy_Gold]

7. Trading halted

S & P drops 7 %

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-falls-7-triggering-market-wide-stock-trading-halt-2020-03-18?mod=exchange-traded-funds

Published: March 18, 2020 at 1:01 p.m. ET

The S&P 500 extended its decline in early afternoon trade, falling 7% to trigger a so-called circuit breaker, resulting in a 15-minute market-wide trading halt for stocks. The S&P 500 was halted at 2,351.79, while the Dow stands at 19,576.75, down 7.8%. The Nasdaq Composite is at 6,872.41, down 6.3%.

[MoonlitKnight]

8. We just blew through support

Next stop 2100 on S&P.

[Tansy_Gold]

9. 1:35 p.m. EDT Bloodbath continues

Dow Jones Industrial Average

19,172.01 -2,065.37 (9.73%)


S&P 500 Index

2,306.72 -222.47 (8.80%)


Nasdaq Composite

6,736.19 -598.59 (8.16%)

[progree]

10. S&P 500: election day close: 2140, last close before inauguration day: 2264

Last edited Wed Mar 18, 2020, 10:19 PM - Edit history (2)

So S&P 500 is still above those points, 2288 at 229 pm ET. 1% more down and the inauguration day one is breached.

2288 is 32.4% below the February 19 peak.

(I read a bear market begins at 20% down, and a "collapse" at 40% down. I don't know what 30% down is called... but whatever it is, we've breached that).

S&P 500 peak-to-trough, the 3 biggest ones since the Great Depression:
1973-75: -48%
2000-2001: -49%
2007-2009: -57%

It took 7.5, 7.2, and 5.5 years respectively peak-to-peak to recover from these, i.e. the number of years from the peak before the dive to get back to that peak again.

(S&P 500 is far more representative of U.S. stocks overall and what people own on average and in what weightings than the Dow, which isn't even very representative of the 30 stocks in it -- its price-weighted, how silly)

Oh, I forgot to mention - these are index values only. They don't include dividends. The S&P 500 yield has been around 1.7%/year during the Trump years, so that makes his slightly-above-water index performance look a little bit better. And the depths of the dives are a little less, and recovery times are a little less than shown above, when dividends are considered.

Edited to add: S&P 500 closed Wednesday March 18 at 2398, down 29.2% from its peak.

Pretend you are Jacques Cousteau taking deep dives in lovely bright sparkling tropical waters.

[Warpy]

12. I'm glad my dad is gone now.

If he'd managed to survive the 2008 rout, he'd never survive this one.

He used to watch the stock ticker with the sound off and it was like he was playing the ponies, jubilant at a point up, despondent at a quarter point down. His nervous system couldn't take this.

I'm deeply in the market and I'm expecting dividends to take a huge hit, but I live on so much less than my income that I'll be fine.

[progree]

13. There are no pockets in a shroud n/t

[progree]

14. Coming up Thursday 830 am ET - BLS's unemployment insurance claims report for week ending Mar 14

Its a weekly report that comes out every Thursday morning.

[Tansy_Gold]

15. The fairies avoided 1/20/17

Close on Inauguration day

19827.25


Close 3/18/2020

19,898.92