Timing of federal surveys means Friday's job report won't look much like the actual job situation

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Timing of federal surveys means Friday's job report won't look much like the actual job situation

Meteor Blades
Daily Kos Staff
Monday March 30, 2020 · 10:30 AM EDT

As it always does at the first of each month, come Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest numbers on the employment situation. With the nation gripped by the coronavirus pandemic, count on these to look far different from what millions of laid-off Americans know to be reality.

Wall Street Journal economists are predicting the report will show a net loss of just 56,000 jobs and a modest rise in the official unemployment rate from 3.5% to 3.7%. It’s all about timing. While the worst impact from the economic shutdown happened in the past three weeks, the report will only assess the first few days of that period.

{snip}

[progree]

1. Yup, the survey week for the April 3 jobs report was March 8-14

From the OP link

The gap between what the report will show and what’s actually happening is a product of the timing of the two monthly surveys the BLS uses to assess employment, one of businesses and one of households. These are completed around the 12th of each month. The report released at the end of this week will thus cover the last half of February and first half of March.

Some other report I read agreed with my title line that the survey week was March 8-14. Before the big layoffs hit.

A reminder that the unemployment rate to be released on April 3 is NOT a count of people getting unemployment benefits, or filing for unemployment benefits, or any such, but rather comes from a survey of 70,000 households during the survey week, where they ask a bunch of questions.

[gibraltar72]

2. Somebody smarter than I will scour the numbers

And give us the true unemployment rate.