The Census Bureau's Grim Take on the Employment Shock During the Pandemic: Not Improving Yet

[marmar]

The Census Bureau’s Grim Take on the Employment Shock During the Pandemic: Not Improving Yet
by Wolf Richter • Aug 3, 2020 •

Low income earners got crushed. Many high-income earners could work-from-home.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.


Trying to figure out what the actual unemployment situation in the US is has become tricky. The government produces two major indicators that contradict each other. The Department of Labor said last Thursday that 30.2 million people continued to claim state or federal unemployment insurance, based on actual unemployment claims that were processed, however behind they may still be. And the Bureau of Labor Statistics asserted that the labor market has improved rapidly since April, and that in June, unemployment was down to 17.8 million people.

There is a huge difference between the 30.2 million people on unemployment insurance rolls, as per the Labor Department’s weekly tally of unemployment claims, and the assertion that only 17.8 million people are unemployed, as per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In recent weeks, the Census Bureau has weighed in with its own weekly Household Pulse Survey, which shows a labor market that is still in terrible shape and may be getting worse, and the pain has spread far and wide into households.

The Census Bureau wisely doesn’t pretend to measure the number of unemployed, or the unemployment rate per se, because this would contradict the Bureau of Labor Statistics directly and everyone that cites the BLS unemployment rate. Instead, the Census Bureau shows from a different angle just how far and wide unemployment has spread as a grim reality. ..............(more)

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/03/the-census-bureaus-grim-take-on-the-pandemic-employment-shock-not-improving-yet/

[progree]

1. The Census Bureau conducts the Household surveys that produce the official unemployment rate

and numerous other metrics for the BLS -- we'll see that report tomorrow morning

https://www.bls.gov/cps/

The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It provides a comprehensive body of data on the labor force, employment, unemployment, persons not in the labor force, hours of work, earnings, and other demographic and labor force characteristics.

I don't know what the Census Bureau does in the BLS monthly jobs report beyond doing the survey; for all I know, the BLS then takes the raw survey results and compiles it all and seasonally adjusts it and so on, but anyhoo, thought I'd weigh in.

As for loss of employment related income, yes, that's no surprise, but at least according to this, it was more than made up for by stimulus and unemployment insurance spending for the 2nd quarter as a whole:

Personal Income increased by 7.3% in Q2, while personal income without government support decreased by 6.1% (graph), 8/6/20
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stimulus-checks-coronavirus-personal-finance-expert-advice-201536967.html

The Bureau of Economic Analysis produces the Personal Income figures
This is their latest news release. It also has a graph of the month by month changes
https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income



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I have no explanation for the widely differing number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the 2nd week or more, compared to the BLS's unemployment in millions or unemployment rate in percent.

From Richter in the OP linked article

There is a huge difference between the 30.2 million people on unemployment insurance rolls, as per the Labor Department’s weekly tally of unemployment claims, and the assertion that only 17.8 million people are unemployed, as per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

His article is dated 8/3/20. Actually it's gotten worse, according to this morning's unemployment insurance claims report:

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 18 was 32,118,678, an increase of 1,302,816 from the previous week. There were 1,707,267 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.

Thread on this morning's unemployment insurance claims report: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142554593