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Sat Sep 19, 2020, 08:36 PM

Stocks Are Falling Into Fall

  • All three major stock market indices completed three consecutive weeks of falling today as we head into fall next week.

  • Apple, for example, was the fastest to rise in the market's melt-up stage and is already the fastest to have fallen into its own bear market, which it entered today by ending more than 22% below its last all-time high on Sept. 1.

  • I see a marathon battle between the bulls and the bear as most likely, with the bear tearing away claws full of bullish flesh in painful swipe after swipe and eventually winning the day as the market hangs on those lines of support, maybe tries to rise from them, and then busts through again and again.

  • Possibly more important today than the NASDAQ's downward trend for the month or the big bite out of the big Apple is the S&P's close. It finally hammered and held decisively below its 50-day moving average (the tan line), which had provided a repeated floor of support this month:



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    Reply Stocks Are Falling Into Fall (Original post)
    BlueWavePsych Sep 19 OP
    progree Sep 19 #1
    Warpy Sep 19 #2
    BlueWavePsych Sep 20 #3

    Response to BlueWavePsych (Original post)

    Sat Sep 19, 2020, 09:25 PM

    1. S&P 500: down 7.3% from it's Sept 2 all time high, but still up 2.7% YTD

    12/31/19: 3231 -- year end 2019 closing
    09/02/20: 3581 -- all-time high
    09/18/20: 3319 -- latest close

    The 7.3% down from the all-time-high represents a "pullback", but not a "correction". Pullbacks begin at 5% down, while corrections begin at 10% down.

    It will be just fine through Nov. 3.

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    Response to BlueWavePsych (Original post)

    Sat Sep 19, 2020, 11:03 PM

    2. Tech stocks are seeing a correction

    More worrying are the corporations that were offered an ocean of cheap debt last spring and who used it to buy their own stock in order to pump the price back up. I'm afraid Exxon isn't the only one that will be delisted, reclassified as junk because of a high debt load and poor earnings.

    There are several debt bombs all primed. Corporate debt is one of the more worrisome.

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    Response to Warpy (Reply #2)

    Sun Sep 20, 2020, 02:51 PM

    3. These Kinds Of Markets Kill You: Pal

  • The collapse in volatility across markets has created a difficult investing environment, but the bond market is still a reliable barometer of what’s really going on.

  • We’re seeing indicators of a deceleration in the recovery and a potential trend change in equities.

  • https://seekingalpha.com/article/4375259-kinds-of-markets-kill-you-pal

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