STOCK MARKET WATCH - Tuesday, 16 February 2021

[Tansy_Gold]

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, 16 February 2021

Previous SMW:
SMW for 12 February 2021




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 12 February 2021


Dow Jones 31,458.40 +27.70 (0.088%)
S&P 500 3,934.83 +18.45 (0.47%)
Nasdaq 14,095.47 +69.70 (0.50%)

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Market Condit*ions During Trading Hours:

Google Finance
MarketWatch
Bloomberg
Stocktwits

(click on links for latest updates)

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Currencies:











Gold & Silver:






Petroleum:

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DU Economics Group Contributor Megathreads:

Progree's Economic Statistics (with links!)
mahatmakanejeeves' Rail Safety Megathread
mahatmakanejeeves' Oil Train Safety Megathread

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

[progree]

1. I keep wondering about the crude oil prices, I think $60 is kinda high

Last edited Mon Feb 15, 2021, 09:37 PM - Edit history (1)

and yet all's I see is post after post after post saying the world is awash in oil. If so, why is the price so high? (It's $60.18 today, Feb 15 https://finance.yahoo.com/ )

So I dug up this chart (what matters to me is the red line -- the inflation-adjusted price). Other than much of the post-2004 period and the early 1980's, and a brief spike in 1990 due to the Persian Gulf Iraq-Kuwait turmoil, it's never been higher in inflation-adjusted terms (well, in the late 1970s it was level at $60).



Here's where the chart comes from:

https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices/historical-oil-prices-chart

[Warpy]

2. Look at what the dollar did under Dumum's mismanagement.

There is a good part of the problem. There is still an oil glut, people aren't driving as much, airlines are hurting, forget the cruise industry, and overseas trade is down because nobody's got the money to go out and spend, not to mention there's not much shopping to be had except for essentials. Scarcity is not driving it this time.

[progree]

3. Good point, but sorry, I'm just not buying the glut thing.

During Trump to now, the dollar index, http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY/historical , fell from $101.17 on January 20, 2017 to $90.36, a decline of 10.7%. So yeah, adjust today's WTI of $60.09 ( https://finance.yahoo.com/ ) by that, and it's $53.67, still higher than most of the history on that graph other than the periods I mentioned before.

Of course to do the dollar adjustment (on top of the inflation adjustment), in deciding whether today's prices are historically low or high, we'd have to really do it for the entire post-WWII period I'm comparing to.