STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Friday, 1 July 2022

[Tansy_Gold]

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday, 1 July 2022

Previous SMW:
SMW for 30 June 2022




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 30 June 2022



Dow Jones 30,775.43 -253.88 (0.82%)
S&P 500 3,785.38 -33.45 (0.88%)
Nasdaq 11,028.74 -149.16 (1.33%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours:

Google Finance
MarketWatch
Bloomberg
Stocktwits

(click on links for latest updates)

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Currencies:













Gold & Silver:






Petroleum:

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DU Economics Group Contributor Megathreads:

Progree's Economic Statistics (with links!)
mahatmakanejeeves' Rail Safety Megathread
mahatmakanejeeves' Oil Train Safety Megathread

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

[Tansy_Gold]

1. Enjoy the week-end, fellow SMWers!

I'm no expert and don't claim to be one. I don't even follow economic indicators all that closely. But . . . .

The first half of 2022 is behind us now, and we're coming into the stretch of a election year that looks to be dangerous. The "markets" appear to be in trouble even while the corporations are prospering. The filthy rich are getting filthier and richer.

Many many years ago, one of my high school teachers taught that revolutions tend to happen when too many people lose everything, including hope. I've never seen that happen here before, and I've staunchly defended my opinion that until the comfort level drops a lot farther, the American masses will continue to tolerate their own oppression. We came through the 1970s and stagflation. We survived the dot com bubble, and the Enron meltdown, and the housing bubble, and the auto makers' crisis, and the banking crisis. We even managed to come through the defeated former guy's kakistocratic administration if not unscathed, at least still on our collective feet.

Now the delayed action IEDs left behind by DFG and his minions are starting to explode, to devastating effect.

I think we face a choice now, one that may seem simple on the surface but contains hidden risks. Do we go on about our lives as if everything will be fine, do we hunker down fearing the worst, or do we say the hell with it all and party like it's 1999?

Some of us saw all this coming long ago. I've never backed down from my 2008 rant about Obama's transition team. I still believe there was much that happened in those two months that led us to where we are today. But only time will really tell.

Cartoons or not, I'm here for the duration. I think it will be . . . interesting.

[progree]

2. Stocks slide to close worst first half in 52 years: S&P 500 plunges 20.6% YTD, 8.4% in June

Last edited Thu Jun 30, 2022, 11:19 PM - Edit history (3)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-june-30-22-115133813.html

The S&P 500 fell by 0.9% on Thursday to reach 3,785.38, ending the first half of 2022 lower by 20.6% for its worst start to a year since 1970. ((It's also down 21.1% from its January 3 all-time high -Progree))

The Dow ended Thursday's session at 30,775.43, dropping 15.3% for the year-to-date for its worst first half since 1962.

And the Nasdaq's 29.5% drop so far in 2022 marked its worst first half on record.

Edited to add:

We've had worse since WWII: To take the 3 worst ones:

Max ...........Time to
pullback ... recover..... Crash Name

48.4%     7.5 years,     73-74
49.1%     7.2 years,     DotCom
56.8%     5.5 years     Housing Bubble

The max pullback is the percentage drop from the pre-crash peak to the lowest point

The time to recover is the time from the pre-crash peak to when it reached that same level again.

The total U.S. stock market, as measured by the Vanguard Total (U.S.) Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX)
has grown 5.13 fold since November 3, 2008 (includes reinvested distributions) to June 29, 2022 close, a 12.72% average annualized return during these 13.65 years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTSAX/history

(the June 30 close isn't in yet as I write this)

For a longer view --
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html