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(Today) is Jobs Day, my favorite day of the month! Except that (today's) report is going to be ...
This is a long thread, but it goes into the fine print of the jobs report that will be released at 8:30 this morning.
Alexandra Semenova just got back from vacation.
Alexandra Semenova Retweeted
Tomorrow is #JobsDay, my favorite day of the month! Except that tomorrow's report is going to be so, so, SO annoying. Quick, nerdy thread on why:
Link to tweet
First, population adjustments! For the January jobs data every year,
@BLS_gov
incorporates updated population estimates into the Current Population Survey (the source of data on the labor force, unemployment, etc).
@BLS_gov
incorporates updated population estimates into the Current Population Survey (the source of data on the labor force, unemployment, etc).
Importantly, BLS does *not* revise its previously published data -- it treats each year's adjustment as a one-time change, as if the population suddenly grew or shrank in January, as you can see in this chart.
Link to tweet
That means that the household survey estimates are NOT directly comparable between December and January. And sometimes, it can make a really big difference -- as it did last year, when if you missed the adjustments, you'd get the whole interpretation of the report wrong.
Link to tweet
