US Jobless Claims Tumbled Last Week After Fraud-Inflated Jump

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Economics
Jobs

US Jobless Claims Tumbled Last Week After Fraud-Inflated Jump

• Reversal in Massachusetts helped spur biggest drop since 2021
• Continuing claims edge down in sign of labor-market resilience

ByAugusta Saraiva
May 18, 2023, 12:35 PM UTC Updated on May 18, 2023, 1:45 PM UTC

Applications for US unemployment benefits fell by the most since 2021 after fraudulent claims in at least one state boosted the numbers in previous weeks.

Initial unemployment claims fell by 22,000 to 242,000 in the week ended May 13, Labor Department data showed Thursday. On an unadjusted basis, claims decreased by the most in two months, to 215,810, largely due to a drop in Massachusetts.

{snip}

Macro Matters

2 minute read • May 18, 2023 • 9:22 AM EDT • Last Updated an hour ago

US weekly jobless claims fall; labor market still tight

By Lucia Mutikani

Summary
• Weekly jobless claims drop 22,000 to 242,000
• Continuing claims decrease 8,000 to 1.799 million

WASHINGTON, May 18 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for jobs benefits fell more than expected last week, with applications in Massachusetts decreasing sharply, suggesting the labor market remains tight.

The steep decline in weekly unemployment claims reported by the Labor Department on Thursday reversed the surge in the prior week, which had boosted them to the highest level since Oct. 30, 2021. That increase was largely blamed on an unusual jump in applications for unemployment insurance in Massachusetts.

The state's Department of Unemployment Assistance said last week it was "experiencing an increase in fraudulent claim activities in which people attempted to gain access to active UI accounts or file new UI claims using stolen personal information so they can fraudulently obtain unemployment benefits."

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ended May 13. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 254,000 for the latest week.

Unadjusted claims dropped 18,605 to 215,810 last week, with filings in Massachusetts plunging by 14,042. Claims also fell considerably in Missouri and New Jersey, more than offsetting notable increases in Ohio and Illinois.

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[Historic NY]

1. sure sounds like an engineerd campaign

Who benefits by cooking the numbers? Like the border whisper campaigns to the migrants.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. Fraud in Massachusetts is boosting US weekly jobless claims, economists say

Last edited Thu May 18, 2023, 12:14 PM - Edit history (1)

Macro Matters

3 minute read • May 17, 2023• 2:24 PM EDT• Last Updated 20 hours ago

Fraud in Massachusetts is boosting US weekly jobless claims, economists say

Reuters

WASHINGTON, May 17 (Reuters) - Fraudulent filings for state unemployment insurance aid in Massachusetts could be distorting U.S. weekly unemployment claims data, economists warned on Wednesday, making it harder to get a clear picture of the labor market in the short-term. ... A surge in applications in Massachusetts accounted for the increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending May 6, which drove them to the highest level since Oct. 30, 2021.

"We find that Massachusetts accounts for nearly all of the recent shift up in the pace of weekly jobless claims reported nationally," JPMorgan said in a note, citing its analysis of the weekly claims data. "Moreover, across the remaining 49 states we do not see signs of an unusual rise in claims recently, suggesting the issue of significant fraud is fairly limited to date."

The Massachusetts Department of Unemployment Assistance, since the release of the claims data last Thursday, has acknowledged that it "is experiencing an increase in fraudulent claim activities where people attempt to gain access to active UI (unemployment insurance) accounts or file new UI claims using stolen personal information so they can fraudulently obtain unemployment benefits."

According to JPMorgan's analysis of the weekly claims data, the unusual rise in claims from Massachusetts might have started earlier than the week ending May 6.

{snip}

[progree]

3. The source (which says not a single word about the fraud stuff)

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Initial claims: 242,000, down by 22,000 from the previous week. The previous week was unrevised

In last Thursday's report (5/11), initial claims was reported as 264,000
(264 - 22 = 242 v/ ). 242,000 is the same level as reported 5/04

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Continuing claims: 1,799k (Down 8k from previous week, previous week revised down 6k)

In last Thursday's report (5/11), continuing claims was reported as 1,813k
(1,813 - 8 - 6 = 1,799 v/ )

Continuing claims is what the DOL report calls insured unemployment.

Unfortunately, the graphs at the above link show considerable growth in both initial and continuing claims since October. But still these are low levels historically (and the labor force is much larger than decades ago).

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Unless I'm missing something, no bureaucrats or politicos are "cooking the books". Rather, apparently some ring of fraudsters in Massachushetts has managed to "to gain access to active UI accounts or file new UI claims using stolen personal information so they can fraudulently obtain unemployment benefits.". So as to personally collect (steal) money, not to distort the numbers for political / ideological reasons.

And no, the monthly first Friday BLS jobs report that reports the headline national unemployment rate (currently 3.4%) and the nonfarm payroll jobs number does NOT use unemployment insurance claims figures. That is an old old persistent myth. Rather the unemployment rate is based on a monthly survey of 60,000 households.

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Oops, I meant to "Reply to thread" (i.e. the OP).

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. "Oops, I meant to "Reply to thread" (i.e. the OP)."

Oops, I meant to "Reply to thread" (i.e. the OP).

I wouldn't worry about it. Nobody reads these things.

And good morning.