STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Monday, 2 October 2023

[Tansy_Gold]

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday, 2 October 2023

Previous SMW:
SMW for 29 September 2023



AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 29 September 2023


Dow Jones 33,507.50 -158.84 (0.47%)
S&P 500 4,288.05 -11.65 (0.27%)
Nasdaq 13,219.32 +18.05 (0.14%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours:

Google Finance
MarketWatch
Bloomberg
Stocktwits

(click on links for latest updates)

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Currencies:













Gold & Silver:






Petroleum:

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DU Economics Group Contributor Megathreads:

Progree's Economic Statistics (with links!)
mahatmakanejeeves' Rail Safety Megathread
mahatmakanejeeves' Oil Train Safety Megathread

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Quote for the Day:

There was a general dismissal of the growing danger. Media members and politicians were largely affluent and privileged and out of touch with what was happening on the ground in other parts of the country. When they looked at Trump, they saw a lark, a passing, boorish fad that could boost ratings and drive donations but would eventually burn itself out and give way to something else. They lacked an understanding of religion as possessing the elements I grew up surrounded by, including conspiracy theories and the type of repugnant white nationalism percolating on the political scene. Even as some of us sounded the alarm regarding authoritarian trends fueled by these ideas, it was more or less regarded as hysterical hairpulling.

Jared Yates Sexton. The Midnight Kingdom: A History of Power, Paranoia, and the Coming Crisis. Penguin Publishing Group. © 2023.

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

[bucolic_frolic]

1. The historical record painted in broad brush is instructive to the current situation financially

WWI of course, juiced the economy with war production. There was a mini recession post-war, and a flu pandemic, but by the 1920s the newly 1913 minted Federal Reserve loosened interest rates and that spawned the roaring 20s and the flapper era. In 1928 the Fed raised interest rates. By the time of the October 1929 crash, they had raised interest rates 5% or thereabouts.

The Greenspan housing bubble was hatched with "extraordinary, extraordinary, extraordinary" low rates, to use Greenspan's term. These were in response to the 2001 Bursting of the Tech Bubble. Wow did it crash, so many names. Lucent, Enron, Worldcom, Kmart (the first time). Venture capital had bet many farms on loose money and internet startups run by freshly minted MBAs who had never seen a downturn. Driving blind with no instruments. How does that usually work out?

By 2008 the Housing bubble was under duress. Super safe USA mortgage pools were sold worldwide. Only thing was they weren't safe. So we had the Great Recession, ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), QE1, followed by more QE's under different names but they were all the same: inject liquidity into the banking system to keep everyone from 1929, 1972, or 2008 all over again.

The Republicans in Congress made sure the Republicans got paid with tax cuts. Bank that money in assets, live off the business, and keep complaining. Powell followed the money with Trump. Come Covid,let's do ZIRP again and inject money into the system. Give it all to the top, and SNAP to the bottom, and Stim checks to everyone. No one ever banked on a rainy day anyway. The result was inflation and Powell has had to raise interest rates fast.

So the purpose of this tale is to note that, like the 1920s, we've had a long period of loose money, crashes, more loose money, looser money, the loosest money, Brink's truck money .... an now it's 23 years later and the Fed, just like 1929, has raised interest rates faster than you can count - 5% all over again. Which is why some economists are insisting recession or perhaps Depression is nigh.

Buy PayPal!

[Tansy_Gold]

2. You'll get no argument from me

I'm one of those SMW doomsayers who's been saying doom is just around the corner . . . for years.

As totally uninformed as I am, I think COVID was both a blessing and a curse in disguise. It forced the 💩 government to give a break to a lot of working class people, especially through the student loan repayment moratorium. If Biden's government doesn't find a way to make that break permanent, there will be a lot more people hurting financially, and that hurt is going to trickle up. The uber rich are of course protected from most financial crashes, but they may not be protected from social crashes, otherwise known as torches and pitchforks and cardboard signs on Wall Street demanding "Jump, you fuckers!"

I think -- though of course I could be wrong -- COVID changed the way some people think about "the economy." We may not have seen the end of the major shifts in significant sectors of the "new" economy -- working outside "the office," shopping online even for groceries, etc. Will Amazon be broken up via anti-trust laws? Will X/Twitter go down the shitter? Will a 💩 incarceration bring on the conflagration? Far too few people seem to be looking at the integration of all these facets, and I think that may be dangerous.

But what do I know? I'm just here stirrin' the pot.