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Fri Jun 5, 2020, 06:59 PM

The people who lost any money investing in the S&P 500:

are those who invested from 12/19/19 through 2/24/20. Then they've lost some money on funds they invested between these dates. On paper. Any money they had invested before 12/19/19 is above water. 12/19/19 thru 2/24/20 were the only days in history when the S&P 500 was above today's 3194 close. (And this ignores dividends)

BTW, it's 5.7% below the Feb 19 all-time high of 3386 (still in "pullback" territory, which ranges from between 5% down and 10% down)


So far. We'll see what happens when the stimulus and Federal Reserve begins cutting back as they will eventually and inevitably. Not to mention the real economy is a long way from recovered, and yes, I saw today's jobs report -- still 21 M unemployed. Compare to 15.4 M at the worst of the Great Recession.


Monthly changes:

But Trump says George Floyd is "looking down right now" and saying today is a "great thing that's happening for our country ... This is a great, great day." https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142508011

Only one problem: the black unemployment rate is 16.8%, an uptick from April's 16.7%. And 1/3 above the 12.4% white unemployment rate, which ticked down by 1.8 percentage points.

# Black unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
First 5 months of 2020: 6.0, 5.8, 6.7, 16.7, 16.8 Trump: "what have you got to lose?"

# White unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
First 5 months of 2020: 3.1, 3.1, 4.0, 14.2, 12.4

Asked how the rate of unemployment among black Americans can be considered a "victory" as it continues to increase, the president told a reporter outside the White House, "You are really something."

And the stock market rally doesn't help black families all that much

Few black families will benefit from the historic stock market rally, 6/5/20

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Reply The people who lost any money investing in the S&P 500: (Original post)
progree Jun 2020 OP
FBaggins Jun 2020 #1
progree Jun 2020 #2
PoindexterOglethorpe Jun 2020 #3

Response to progree (Original post)

Fri Jun 5, 2020, 07:02 PM

1. Or those who sold a couple months ago

Of which there were plenty

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #1)

Fri Jun 5, 2020, 07:20 PM

2. Sure. Anyone who sold except between those two dates has lost out compared to a buy-and-hold

Last edited Fri Jun 5, 2020, 09:19 PM - Edit history (3)

investor, since they sold below today's closing value. (Doesn't include round trips where someone who in the past sold at 2000 and bought back at 1500 or something like that. Or even more recently sold at 3000 and bought back at 2300).

So far. The unwinding of the stimulus and Federal Reserve corporate lending has not yet begun. Nor have many corporate or municipal bankruptcies or small business failures occurred, yet. Hopefully investors will keep on buying at P/E's that are way higher than the already very high values that we had pre-pandemic, especially after Q2 earnings are announced and P/E ratios refigured.

And given that the market has priced in a near-perfect reopening and recovery, there is a lot of risk of a reversal, to put it mildly, if a second pandemic wave forces a wave of re-intesified restrictions and closings. In the meantime, strict capacity limits will crimp business revenues in places that rely on heavy foot traffic. Or people being in close proximity like planes, busses, cruises, Uber, ...

We will also be enduring vast cutbacks in state and local spending.

Minnesota's $1.5 billion budget surplus turned into a $2.4 billion deficit almost overnight. The $2.4 billion deficit will soon be seen as the good ol' days.

Coronavirus cases are climbing again in the South and the West. Will crowded protests spark bigger outbreaks?, Yahoo News, 6/5/20


The Reuters coronavirus database, which measures and compares the total number of new cases each week:


and the protest crowding hasn't even begun to show up in the above.

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Response to progree (Original post)

Sat Jun 6, 2020, 10:12 AM

3. People think they are clever enough to try to time the market.

They can't. There are something like a half dozen days in each year when the market makes big moves, and if you're out, you lose. Simple as that.

Buy a diversified group of funds, or if you must, stocks. And pretty much leave them alone for the long term. There are times when you might want to do some re-balancing, if some sector gets out of whack in one way, but constant buying and selling, even if there were no costs in

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