Finding ways to limit global warming to 1.5C

[Ghost Dog]

... The planet’s primary thermostat is the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Pre-industrial levels were 280 parts per million. We just hit 400 ppm with warming at one degree and some more in the pipeline, due to time lags. The IPCC, in its most recent report, estimated that to stop at 1.5C will mean holding concentrations to around 430 ppm.

Because much of our CO2 emissions stay in the atmosphere for centuries, that means bringing annual emissions to zero. Impossible? Maybe, but the good news is that greenhouse gas emissions actually fell in 2015 despite rising global economic activity, thanks to the growing use of renewable energy. If we could build on that and bring emissions to zero by 2050, then we might limit emissions from here on out to 800bn tons.

If we could somehow find ways to extract 500bn tons from the atmosphere, Rogelj concluded, we would likely be able to have our wish of CO2 concentrations of 430 ppm and warming capped at 1.5C. The fairy godmother would have delivered...

... The trick that puts a glint in the eye of some technologists and climate scientists is known by the acronym BECCS, which stands for “biomass energy, carbon capture, and storage.” The idea is to convert the world’s power stations to burning biomass, such as trees or marine algae. The industrialized production of this biomass on such a scale would accelerate the natural drawdown of CO2 by plants during photosynthesis. If the CO2 created by burning the biomass could then be captured from the stacks and buried in geological strata — the prototype technology known as carbon capture and storage — then the net effect would be a permanent extraction of CO2 from the atmosphere...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/16/what-would-a-global-warming-increase-of-15c-be-like

[Boomer]

1. That's a lot of if's

Meanwhile, vast areas of permafrost are melting and emitting methane at ever increasing rates.

[Ghost Dog]

2. Too many;

assumes political judgement and action, regulating and manipulating market forces, and profound, orderly social change (rather than the forthcoming increasing social disfunction), all directed by information provided by scientist and technologists...

Only a powerful and fast-moving new theocratic temporal order could pull it off in time.

[pscot]

3. I think we missed that train

[Boomer]

4. Agreed

If there had been a concerted push to cap CO2 emissions back in the 1950s or 60s, then it's possible we might just now be seeing some payoff. That we're only now having these vague, theoretical discussions about possible solutions is... quaint.

[pscot]

5. If Al Gore had tied himself to the tracks

back in the '90s we might have been able to low things down. OTOH, the science community weren't exactly running around with their hair on fire either. And they still are not, with a few notable exceptions.